Hand 6:
A TAgg Villain min opens from MP 100bb's deep. We call in the BB w TT. The flop comes T99dd. Villain bets ½ PSB and we call. The turn is the 8d and Villain bets again, this time bit bigger. Hero's turn to act . . . . .
FACTORS IN ACTION: Once again, this is not a SA/SB situation, but one where Villain will ABSOLUTELY perceive it to be. Villain is going to be less likely to stack off when the board brings 4 to a straight or 3 to a flush. Even though, we will not actually have a flush or a straight, Villain STILL plays more correctly against our hand on these rivers simply by folding (regardless of WHY he folds). Villain may also be more pleased about his hand once he himself has hit a 4 straight or a flush, but given the fact that we will be OOP and without the initiative against a decent player who understands relative hand strength, it will be tough to make him make the mistake of stacking off when we have so much money left behind (~85bb's in a ~25bb pot) going into the river. We are playing the same regardless, but Villain is going to play more carefully on bad rivers.
CONCLUSION: We're not changing how we play based on the river, and Villain is; namely, he's changing how he plays it in a way that behooves him against our particular hand (even if he's not particularly putting us on this hand). Get money in, take back the initiative and reduce the SPR.
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