The solid regulars in my game don't pay off my big hands nearly as often as I'd like them to and it's probably because they've noticed that I almost always have the goods when I play a big pot. I think I need to bluff more often and generally do a better job of mixing up my play, against good players.

Here is an idea that I had today. Let's say a solid player raises, and I call with a small pair hoping to flop a set. I know that this player is capable of folding top pair or an overpair to serious post-flop aggression. When I miss my set, sometimes I could "pretend" that I flopped a set, and play the hand as though I have one. I could do this often enough that when I take my "flopped set" line, 2/3 of the time I have one, and 1/3 of the time I'm bluffing. Therefore if my opponent decides to call me down light, he's making a losing play because more often than not, I have a set. But, if he folds to my aggression, I'll steal more pots from him post-flop and hopefully induce him to call me down more often.

I actually flop a set 1/8 of the time, so I should be pretending to flop one 1/16 of the time, or (1/16)/(7/8) = 1/14 of the time that I miss the flop. So if I miss, I can look at the second hand on my watch, and if it's between 1 and 4, pretend that I have a set.

What do you guys think, good idea or terrible?