middle set, worst turn; HELP!

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($3.39)
UTG+1 ($2.11)
MP1 ($3.38)
kickass (MP2) ($10)
MP3 ($5.05)
CO ($8.40)
BTN ($7.71)
SB ($4.08)
BB ($11.29)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 9 players) kickass is MP2
3 folds, kickass raises to $0.20, 4 folds, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.42, 2 players)
BB checks, kickass bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.22, 2 players)
BB checks, kickass ($9.4)?
first orbit no hud. no clue.

think check behind and spike a boat on the river

Check/call river of about $1

Or bet $1 fold to a raise

Without reads, I just check behind since the turn completes every damn draw he had on the flop and I'd like to see a river card... hoping to fill up or see a cheaper showdown.

thats cool just making sure. i thought it was ugly but pretty easy ip.

Kd far worse card. gotta bet this turn

Originally Posted by bikes

Kd far worse card. gotta bet this turn

I'm interested as to why this is the right play.

Where is the hole in my reasoning:

I might be ahead, but I'm behind a lot of his flop calling range. I've got up to 10 outs on the river for the majority of that part of his range that beats me (made flushes and straights), and a chance for a free card. If he check raises me with those hands I have to give up. If he check raises a lot here I may be giving up a ton of expected equity compared with checking and, since I have no reads and Td is a good card to check raise for my opponent, checking seems optimal.

I'll give it a go, but doubt I've got the right idea:

There are all sorts of 1/2 pair hands Particularly containing T's that continued on the flop that will likely call a turn bet and we don't want them to draw for free. If he does have a made hand that beats us, he may not raise it on the turn, allowing us to get to the river anyway. We want the pot big enough on the river to get all the money in easily if the board pairs, so bet for value against his range now and it won't be too big a mistake, even against the top of his range unless he's good enough to C/R (and not having any reads, we don't have any reason to think he is).

deleted post, I misread the hand, thought there were four diamonds down.

Kd is worse card because our range has more Kx hands than Tx hands, this turn smashes into our range, so we have more fold equity, that's my best guess.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Kd is worse card because our range has more Kx hands than Tx hands, this turn smashes into our range, so we have more fold equity, that's my best guess.

villain has more open-ended-straight-draws that a King completes than he has gutshot draws

ok bikes I beleive you although you a hundred miles ahead of me. is it because the Kd stops us having AKdd which reduces our range to shit that cant call if he ships. but the Td leaves it in our range scaring him with lots of holdings even ones that hit this turn. does he even think that far? am I being stupid? Ive had beer!
I know what he had and I think he'd still brick it if I bet this turn hard so maybe Im being results orrientated.

fold equity? bikes isn't turning his hand into a bluff -- it's value vs 2pr, and we have equity vs better hands that won't always raise. The Kd is worse cuz villain has more tens than K|8. Villain has a lot of combos of OESD + pairs on this flop that turned into 2pr with the Td instead of straights with the Kd.

Could go for thin value.

Checking back isn't a bad play though, great thing about position.

$1 on the turn

I think i let my overly active brain run away with its self whilst I was typing. this was obviously not a well thought out post. my excuse is im old and im drunk.

now that I think of my reaction when he showed AK(w/o diamonds), I must have known what you said here to be true, but not followed the thought process through to its logical conclusion. honest Thank you. I may have learned something today.

I'd bet the turn like $1.