Mid set, limped pot, drawy board

[sweetlemon69]

V is 13/11/4 ATS 25 over 90 hands.

MP is a massive station. Since the blinds are nitty it could be argued to isolate?

Given V's stats, and his play, this board just smacked him... what's to do?




PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($10)
UTG ($3.30)
MP ($11.45)
Hero (Button) ($10)
SB ($17.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 4
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, SB calls $0.05, BB checks

Flop: ($0.40) 4, 5, 3 (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.10, 1 fold, BB raises to $2.60... and hero???

[al yell]

get it in yesterday imo

[AFchung]

shove. all day

[Erpel]

Given V's stats, and his play, this board just smacked him... what's to do?

Range - establish the range more specifically (don't forget nut flush draws, combo draws, straight draws, two pair hands and sets). Establish his 3bet range, his shove-calling range and if you think there might be more value in calling and trying to extract on later streets establish ranges for each of the lines you think are likely or interesting.
Equity - calculate your equity against each of the ranges defined at every decision point.
Maximize - Combine the equity with the pot/bet sizes to determine EV for each of the lines and determine which one has the highest EV.