Quote Originally Posted by bbqsquirrel
Why is shoving turn be a better play? I decided to perform some detailed calculation to illustrate my point.

Assume 1) villain was not folding his TP (AK, AQ or AJ) on the turn, which was a reasonable assumption coz there would be 12.50 in the pot and villain would have 12.75 behind (and that this was micro NL25). 2) Also assume that villain and I had equal stacks ($17.25 each) and 3) assume that we were heads-up already preflop (makes the maths easier).

My hand (T2) is a 72.9% favorite if we got all-in on flop. Hence my PE would be 35.5 * 0.729 = 25.89.

If I just call flop 5 things can happen on 45 possible turns:
28 times a blank (3 to 9) appears on turn, we improve to a 82% favourite. On average we end up collecting $ 35.5 * 36 / 44 = 29.04
4 times we boat up, villain will be drawing to 2 outs, PE = 33.89
2 times villain hit trip Aces. we fold, and we would have $17.25 - 5.25 = $12 remaining in our stack.
3 times villain hit 2-pairs, we fail to get away so we're drawing to 4 outs. PE = 35.5 * 4 / 44 = $3.23
8 times one of the other 2 broadway ranks appear on turn, giving villain 12 outs (2 pair or trips (5) + gutshot (4) + board pair (3)). My PE = 35.5 * 32 / 44 = 25.82

Now, (28 * 29.04) + (4 * 33.89) + (2 * 12) + (3 * 3.23) + (8 * 25.82) all divided by 45 = 26.42 (74.4% EV) which is slightly higher than 25.89 (72.9% EV) that we have if we shoved flop.

In conclusion, the key to this play is my ability to get away from opponent's trip aces. (the 2 * 12 term in my equation). It doesn't make a whole lot of difference in the final PE (just 1.5%), but as I stated before, attention to details like this is probably what turns a winning player into a bigger winner.
the problem is you have made too many assumptions. you cannot have a 100% correct read on your opponent no matter how good you think you are. you might be right 9 out of 10 times. but that last 1 in 10 you'll be wrong. and that's if you have an incredible read on your opponent.

the percentage error in your calculation is more than 1.5% (due to the assumptions you have made). therefore you're calculation has no meaning and does not show that you should call and push turn.