Trainer,

Q: When you bet, what is the pot?
A: 1282
Q: When he calls, how much is the pot?
A: 1564
Q: What are his odds to "call" not your odds to bet.
A: He has to call 282 to win 1282 = 4.5 to 1. He has to call 282 to win a total of 1564 = 1 in 5.5. Circa 18%.

These are the sums I ran through before posting and I keep getting the same answers. Gordon uses the rule of 2 and 4 to reach an 18% chance of success and thus this formula leads to odds 1 in 5.5 or 4.5 to 1 and these are higher than 1 in 5 (4 to 1).

So in this scenario, I need Howard to get unfavourable odds to call and so anything around 4.5 to 1 is going to be in his range. He needs worse odds than 1 in 5.5 (4.5 to 1) such as 1 in 4 (3:1 or 25%).

Maybe I just don't get it?


Taipan, as this was a "work it out in your head" quiz and because I am following Gordon's own formula for accuracy I need the answer to correlate to his line of thinking.