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Math question.

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  1. 04-05-2007 05:52 PM #1
    aytopper
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    Default Math question.

    My question is in how many hands can I expect to be dealt a specific hand. For example, AA. I know that I will be dealt this particular hand about 0.45%. With this percentage, every how many hands can I expect to be dealt it?

    Thanks.

    -aytopper
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  2. 04-05-2007 06:14 PM #2
    Muzzard's Avatar
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    100/0.45 = 222

    So once out of every 222 hands
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  3. 04-05-2007 06:37 PM #3
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    Actually it's (100 - 0.45) / 0.45 = 221

    Since I'm bored at work.

    The probability of getting dealt a specific hand is :
    1 - (1 - 0.0045) ^ n
    where n is the number of hands

    Short chart:
    n -> %
    5 -> 2.2%
    90 -> 33.4%
    154 -> 50.1%
    221 -> 63.1%
    1000 -> 98.9%

    So in 90 hands there is a 1/3 chance of your hand being dealt
    While your hand comes once every 221 times there is only 2/3 chance you get dealt it at least once in a random 221 deal sample
    You need to be dealt 1000 hands to have 99% confidence in your hand being dealt at least once
    (\__/)
    (='.'=)
    (")_(")
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  4. 04-06-2007 12:00 AM #4
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    sick math, swigg. just sick. wp.
    LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

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  5. 04-07-2007 10:45 PM #5
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    That doesn't mead you'll get dealt it every 222 hands. It means over thousands of hands that is how often you will be dealt it.
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  6. 04-08-2007 01:23 AM #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by jolub
    That doesn't mead you'll get dealt it every 222 hands. It means over thousands of hands that is how often you will be dealt it.
    LOL so you get AA 222 times out of 1000?! WTF.

    I know my math wasn't spot on, but yours is just RETARDED.
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  7. 04-08-2007 03:25 AM #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by PokerMuzz
    Quote Originally Posted by jolub
    That doesn't mead you'll get dealt it every 222 hands. It means over thousands of hands that is how often you will be dealt it.
    LOL so you get AA 222 times out of 1000?! WTF.

    I know my math wasn't spot on, but yours is just RETARDED.
    Calm down skippy it's just poor syntax. He means over 100 of 1000's of hands you will get it on average every 222nd hand.
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  8. 04-08-2007 03:32 AM #8
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    IT"S NOT 222, it's 221!!!
    (\__/)
    (='.'=)
    (")_(")
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  9. 04-08-2007 09:51 PM #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by swiggidy
    IT"S NOT 222, it's 221!!!
    YEA!!! What chopper said!!!
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
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  10. 04-08-2007 10:22 PM #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by swiggidy
    IT"S NOT 222, it's 221!!!
    Are you sure? I mean we see this all the time but I'd really like someone to work the math out...
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  11. 04-08-2007 10:31 PM #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    Quote Originally Posted by swiggidy
    IT"S NOT 222, it's 221!!!
    Are you sure? I mean we see this all the time but I'd really like someone to work the math out...
    swiggidy already gave u the formula

    Here's a more intuitive way to work it out:
    Ways to get AA = 4 x 3
    Ways to get any 2 = 52 x 51

    (52x51)/(4x3) = 221

    BTW swiggidy as my combinatorial statistics sux, what kind of distribution are you using for your n chart and what's the basis for using it?
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  12. 04-09-2007 12:15 AM #12
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    pssst...salsa..pssst....I was joking
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  13. 04-09-2007 12:56 AM #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by PokerMuzz
    Quote Originally Posted by jolub
    That doesn't mead you'll get dealt it every 222 hands. It means over thousands of hands that is how often you will be dealt it.
    LOL so you get AA 222 times out of 1000?! WTF.

    I know my math wasn't spot on, but yours is just RETARDED.
    lol... can you read muzz?
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  14. 04-09-2007 01:00 AM #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by salsa4ever
    BTW swiggidy as my combinatorial statistics sux, what kind of distribution are you using for your n chart and what's the basis for using it?
    no distribution

    chance of being dealt your hand:
    0.0045

    Chance of not being dealt your hand:
    1 - 0.0045

    chance of not being dealt your hand n times in a row:
    (1 - 0.0045) ^ n

    chances of not not being dealt your hand n times in a row:
    1 - (1 - 0.0045) ^ n
    (\__/)
    (='.'=)
    (")_(")
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  15. 04-09-2007 01:15 AM #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by EzDuzIt
    Quote Originally Posted by PokerMuzz
    Quote Originally Posted by jolub
    That doesn't mead you'll get dealt it every 222 hands. It means over thousands of hands that is how often you will be dealt it.
    LOL so you get AA 222 times out of 1000?! WTF.

    I know my math wasn't spot on, but yours is just RETARDED.
    lol... can you read muzz?
    LOL no, but it does read 222/1000.
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  16. 04-09-2007 02:41 AM #16
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    it doesnt read over A THOUSAND hands you will be dealt 222 times. it reads over THOUSANDS of hands, and then not how many how often. he didnt write it well either though so...
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  17. 04-09-2007 02:53 AM #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by EzDuzIt
    it doesnt read over A THOUSAND hands you will be dealt 222 times. it reads over THOUSANDS of hands, and then not how many how often. he didnt write it well either though so...
    Yes, I am a retard and cannot read. I just noticed that it says thousandS.
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