Lower volatility

I have played a couple of SnGs and starts to feel real comfortable in the lower games. However, I seem to have a real bad luck. The last times 3 times I had AA - I lost to a guy with KK. The last time was right now, which made me abit pissed so I started to think what to do about. I rather not fold AA just because I m afraid my opponent will hit a K. Maybe one could try to go ALMOST ALL IN when the stacks are equal. Stupid idea?

Originally Posted by Mike

I have played a couple of SnGs and starts to feel real comfortable in the lower games. However, I seem to have a real bad luck. The last times 3 times I had AA - I lost to a guy with KK. The last time was right now, which made me abit pissed so I started to think what to do about. I rather not fold AA just because I m afraid my opponent will hit a K. Maybe one could try to go ALMOST ALL IN when the stacks are equal. Stupid idea?

Extremely. By your logic you should also fear JTs because they might flop a straight, 74o because it might flop a boat, 95s might flop a straight flush...

You're 4:1 favorite. You just lost 3 times, so that means you're destined to win the next 12!!!!

Sit back and let the cash roll in.


{EDIT: fixed my odds}
{EDIT: forgot to fix other number after I fixed odds}

It is a stupid idea. What you describe right now is a form of tilt. You are afraid to play your strong hands agressively because they will get cracked. This is a vicious cycle and it goes like this:
1. You play AA less agressively
2. More people see the flop
3. More people have a chance to imrpove
4. Your AA gets cracked more often
5. You are scared and play AA even less agressively.

You lost 3 times in a row with AA, it happens, next time you get AA vs KK you are still 4:1 favorite

Mike this isn't chess, you can play perfect and still lose in the short run. Stop fighting it and accept it, its gambling ffs. If you try to control variance then you will be sacrificing EV and you will never be able to completely control it anyways. Just keep getting your money in with the best of it (+ good bankroll management) and you will win over the long run, guaranteed.*

*the long run is longer than you think

...

Originally Posted by TLR

It is a stupid idea. What you describe right now is a form of tilt. You are afraid to play your strong hands agressively because they will get cracked. This is a vicious cycle and it goes like this:
1. You play AA less agressively
2. More people see the flop
3. More people have a chance to imrpove
4. Your AA gets cracked more often
5. You are scared and play AA even less agressively.

You lost 3 times in a row with AA, it happens, next time you get AA vs KK you are still 4:1 favorite

Or you'll do the opposite ... push every AA preflop and get no callers ... hence no payoff.

Originally Posted by swiggidy

You're 4:1 favorite. You just lost 3 times, so that means you're destined to win the next 15!!!!

(...)

{EDIT: fixed my odds}

You will on average win 4 and lose 1 every 5 times you go with AA vs KK.. so if he lost 3, isn't he supposed to be destined to win the next 12 instead of 15?

Originally Posted by jackvance

Originally Posted by swiggidy

You're 4:1 favorite. You just lost 3 times, so that means you're destined to win the next 15!!!!

(...)

{EDIT: fixed my odds}

You will on average win 4 and lose 1 every 5 times you go with AA vs KK.. so if he lost 3, isn't he supposed to be destined to win the next 12 instead of 15?

no

What I mean is under certain circumstances this could be a good idea noty to push it all through. For instance if the stacks are equal. What would for instance a guy like Gus Hansen or any other pro do if he they were dealt AA on the BB as the first hand i WSOP and some guy starts raising with KK.

Originally Posted by TLR

no

yes

What I mean is under certain circumstances this could be a good idea noty to push it all through. For instance if the stacks are equal. What would for instance a guy like Gus Hansen or any other pro do if he they were dealt AA on the BB as the first hand i WSOP and some guy starts raising with KK.

The first hand of the 2006 WSOP (day 1A) a guy got knocked out with KK vs AA allin preflop.

Guy pays $10000 and he can go home after the first hand. That's poker ^^

Originally Posted by Mike

What I mean is under certain circumstances this could be a good idea noty to push it all through. For instance if the stacks are equal. What would for instance a guy like Gus Hansen or any other pro do if he they were dealt AA on the BB as the first hand i WSOP and some guy starts raising with KK.

This article was posted in the MTT forum. They show that taking QQ vs AK in the first hand is the correct decision. Anyone with AA (and an understanding of the game) is happily putting all their chips on the line, in the first hand, with AA.

Originally Posted by jackvance

Originally Posted by TLR

no

yes

lol. The idea is wrong, the math is right (now because jack noticed the error).

That was an amazingly good article you linked there swiggidy, thx for that

Originally Posted by jackvance

That was an amazingly good article you linked there swiggidy, thx for that

No problem. I am a master of content regurgitation.

Thanks alot. I'm convinced. Very good article. I think my luck has turned up again. I just kicked the ass of a 77 with my KJc.
Flop: JJ8
Turn: K
River: 5

Run better. Hit more sets. Problem solved.