Low Flush v. Loose Button

BTN was 71/17/0 after 24 hands; early on, so no real reads other than loose over small sample. we'd taken a couple of standard pots off of each other previously

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($5)
UTG ($2.07)
MP ($1.77)
CO ($1.20)
Button ($4.05)
SB ($2)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 7
3 folds, Button calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.05) J, K, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.03, Button calls $0.03

Turn: ($0.11) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.07, Button calls $0.07

River: ($0.25) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.15, Button raises to $3.93 (All-In), Hero ???

Dumb fish usually overbets/jams nuts on the river when they failed to gain decent value on previous streets. The question is, is this guy considering Tx to be the nuts here. If you think he does, call happily.

Pot flop, pot turn. River is probably a call given these 3 things.

1. You have a decent strength of flush here given the K Q and J are on board.

2. Villain likely limps any 2 suited cards on the BU

3. He probably jams all flushes, and even if he doesn't he can be spazzing some straight a small % of the time.


Board: Jh Kh 7d Qh 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.143% 57.14% 00.00% 16 0.00 { 9h7h }
Hand 1: 42.857% 42.86% 00.00% 12 0.00 { Ah8h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, Th8h, Tc6c, Th6h, Th5h, Th4h, Th3h, Th2h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 8h4h, 8h3h, 8h2h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 6h3h, 6h2h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 5h2h, 4h3h, 4h2h, 3h2h }

Calling's never going to be a mistake imo, I'd be surprised if a fish like this ever jammed all nut flushes and no other ones.

oops 1 club combo creept in there, ignore it - wont change shit.

1) 2nl + 71/17

2) call shove for value vs straights/smaller flushes/sets, make note on opp that he overbet shoves {insert opp hand here}.

3) ???

4) PROFIT

thanks Gents

bigger on flop, turn, and river

^ agree 100%. you are missing value here.

also, i'm not folding the river.

id consider folding river.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

id consider folding river.

i am in this camp as well

River is interesting once villain raises, but i'm not folding with the 71-17 read. This is mostly cos i discount Ah from villain's range based on pfr=17 and the fact that he has open limped the button

Agree with bigger bets on all streets.

Also, not folding river. In my limited experience passive fish start raising as soon as they make their hand so if he had the flush I'd be expecting him to raise the turn. Also, as mentioned by others, he could be making this same move with lesser flushes and possibly straights some % of the time.

Originally Posted by PKKFW

Agree with bigger bets on all streets.

Also, not folding river. In my limited experience passive fish start raising as soon as they make their hand so if he had the flush I'd be expecting him to raise the turn.

Agree.

So often you see fish make their hand, think it's the nuts and jam to try to maximise on it. Also, I know you've not seen spazzy tendencies from this guy yet, but this could also be a bluff a fair amount of the time trying to rep Tx.

I'm always calling here, but that may explain why I'm so bad at poker!

Just feel like we see worse flush combos here way too often to fold. He may also raise somw Axs preflop OTB and yeah, if he jams T high flushes he prolly jams all flushes.

as small as the pot is on the river prior to betting, I'd lean toward folding to his shove.

uhh easy fold river

played fine otherwise

so 5 for calling and 4 for folding

any of those in the fold camp care to expand on their reasoning?

thanks!

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

so 5 for calling and 4 for folding

any of those in the fold camp care to expand on their reasoning?

thanks!

Wait for me, im for the folding and me reasoning was inspired by this post. (http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post1933596)

umm reasoning he shoved 5x pot what more can i say

reasoning? ~196bb shove into a 20bb pot

In game hard to say what I'd do unfortunately but with no other reads this has to be a fold. Passive fish let you finish betting before raising the nuts and I'd never expect to see a straight here.

Originally Posted by baudib

Passive fish let you finish betting before raising the nuts and I'd never expect to see a straight here.

Thanks baudib

@Shotglass - forgive my denseness, but are you saying the same thing? That without any other info, you believe villain is letting me lead out each street before shoving avec Les Noisettes?

What other info might tip your decision (and therefore what should I learn to be alert to)? After all, it's still a +EV call.

Thanks for the input!

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

Thanks baudib

@Shotglass - forgive my denseness, but are you saying the same thing? That without any other info, you believe villain is letting me lead out each street before shoving avec Les Noisettes?

What other info might tip your decision (and therefore what should I learn to be alert to)? After all, it's still a +EV call.

Thanks for the input!

@ bold, wat wat?

Originally Posted by eugmac

@ bold, wat wat?

errrmmm...isn't it:

EV = (hero equity)(pot size) - (villain equity)(bet size)
EV =(0.571)(4.33) - (0.429)(3.93) [from Carroters post; I get similar w/ 'stove]
EV = 2.472 - 1.686
EV = 0.786

???

please let me know if I've made a com-plete bags of this...

Pretty much.

He's either letting you hang yourself or bluffing. I doubt bluffing because granted, 24 hands is a super small sample but when the villain has an aggression of < 1 and starts voluntarily putting a lot of $$$ in the pot then look out.

You'll hear "the guy is so bad that I couldn't fold" when instead we should say "the guy is normally so passive that I couldn't call that move/bet/shove/checkraise etc"

muchas gracias!

I'd expect this villain to ship any str8, flush, set or 2 pair here. Prolly even AK, AQ, AJ. Can put me in the calling camp.

Don't think he's ever got air considering it's 2nl and with those stats, even with so few hands, he's almost never a "thinking villain" and doesn't even know what repping means.

This guy may ship based on the fact he thinks a str8 beats a flush lol.

pretty obv what the outcome was given thread title imo

this is only foldable because of the pot and bet size

regardless, at this level / v this opponent I just call here for reasons already mentioned

I opt for the fold, probably for the wrong reason, but I dont want to fall into this trap http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/ftr-blogs-operations/hoopy-stops-procrastinating-179121.html#post1933596.

Since I read kieths input , ive tried this shove once and I got paid off.

the point was that your equity then depends on what his range in fact really is, and that the people advocating a fold do so because they're putting villain on a much nuttier range than Carroters. Eg. vs a range of only nut flushes, your equity is 0, therefore your call is exactly -$3.93 EV.

OK, understood. Thanks.

So the calc is redundant - either:
* I believe villain has AhXh,ThXh and fold or
* I don't and call

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

OK, understood. Thanks.

So the calc is redundant - either:
* I believe villain has AhXh,ThXh and fold or
* I don't and call

Yeah... I guess the thing is that a couple of the nut holdings he could have are likely to have been raised pf seeing his stats, despite an insignifcant sample size, like AhTh and maybe Ah8h. So that piece of info tips me towards thinking calling is the way to go, but on the other hand the bet sizing and his line is a significant factor here, and you don't have any prior information how light he would 5x pot overbet jam rivers. I.e. he's taking a fishy nut line, but the question is whether he thinks 6h5h is the nuts here. Upon thinking about it, I'm not so sure he does any more. Don't fish see the three suited broadways and get scurred of people having the royal?

further thoughts from the can -

if this were theoretically a situation where based on an optimistic estimate of his range, we'd have a marginally +EV call, whereas based on a pessimistic estimate of his range, we'd have a catastrophically -EV call (as in this case where it would be -~2BI), folding would be at worst a small mistake, and calling would be at worst a humongous mistake?

I guess the call based on Carroters' range is much more than marginally +EV, so maybe all this is a useless post, but what I'm trying to say is, how bad does the potential "humongous mistake" have to be to make this an easy fold? Or have I lost it and am thinking all the wrong things?

Originally Posted by eugmac

...have I lost it and am thinking all the wrong things?

welcome to my world, duder

A couple of responses, then (and pls. feel free to tell me if i'm being a dick here):-

All EV calculations are theoretical. In my example, the EV result was +$0.78. But it's actually impossible for this hand to have this particular result; I either win $4.33 or lose $3.93.

I think what you're actually talking about is Risk of Ruin.

Say I offer you 40:1 if you can hit double-six with 2 fair dice. It's a dollar to play.

Basically you play until your arm falls off. Possibly afterwards if you're ambidextrous.

But what if it was $100 to play? Or $1,000? Or $10,000?

You're still getting the same odds, right?

Given his flat call pre, I might consider raising pre to avoid this kind of decision

You know how standard thinking is you don't bluff a fish? Because they are level 0-1 thinkers and don't understand what you're repping when you 3-bet pre and barrel off 120BBs, they just say "I haz pair, I call" and they snap with like fourth fking pair on a QT98 board and you have AK?

the notable exception is that passive fish at microstakes are inordinately afraid of the potential flush. This can def. be a call vs. a more aggressive player at higher stakes who will have bluffs/Ahx blockers to the nuts but I don't see a 71/17/btn limp guy shipping here with a worse hand.

another way to think of it is this: a passive fish isn't a passive fish because he puts you to tough decisions with a balanced range.