longterm hands

how many hands do you need recorded on PokerTracker before you know if you're doing something wrong or if you're winning long term etc...

i have like 4,000 hands so far... what would be considered good stats?.. what should i have before i move on up to 25NL since right now i'm playing 10NL

After like 10k-15k you'll know if you are winning - much more is needed to establish a very accurate winrate, but you'll know if you're beating the game. Move up when you have enough $ and are a winning player at your current game. I personally like 30 buyins before moving up, but that's just me.

I usually move up w/ just 10 buyins, but I dont mind reloading if I have to. Using 20 or 30 is a good idea if your online money is all you want to risk. Realistically, you probably are not going to have a neg. swing of much more than 8 if you are a good player.

To get real accurate data in a tough, high variance game, probably like 250,000 hands.

To get a real good idea of how you are doing at NL25, I think 10,000 hands will give you a lot of great info.

I was at 12BB/100 after 15k hands at NL25 and then dropped down to 6BB/100 after 60k hands. Also after 15k hands KK and QQ was kicking AA ass. My point is that you need at least 50k hands for a somewhat accurate total win rate and probably close to a 1/2 million if you want to figure out win rate for any particular hand.

I like to test the waters with 10x buy-ins. But I'll jump right back down if I fall down to 8x buy-ins. Figure no harm done, especially if you are a winning player and things go the way they should you will juice your bankroll quicker. I'm sure you want more buy-ins at higher stakes games where the varience is greater. But at our levels it's not likely you'll drop more than a couple buy-ins on a bad day at a game you normally control.

move up when you (a) have 10-15 buyins and (b) aren't going to play scared at that level. I personally hold to the 15 buyin rule, while taking shots at the next stake with 10+ buyins.

Originally Posted by Lodogg

I was at 12BB/100 after 15k hands at NL25 and then dropped down to 6BB/100 after 60k hands. Also after 15k hands KK and QQ was kicking AA ass. My point is that you need at least 50k hands for a somewhat accurate total win rate and probably close to a 1/2 million if you want to figure out win rate for any particular hand.

Who cares about that really? (no offense) Unless you can identify your losses to really be card variance (bad beats on the big pots) you're already getting a good idea at less than this.

In my limited experience (and the more elaborate experience of my friends), the psychological factor weighs 10x more than card variance. If 5k hands are played in 1-2 days, you're not taking your psychological variance into account.

If a horrible bad beats totally knocks you off your game, it might take some time (days, weeks) to see this pattern, which is a very destructive one. The amount of hands doesn't tell you much here. A bad beat or anything else (facing a floater or whatever) that knocks you off your game early on is potentially destructive for your game and will only be identified after more than a week (at best) of play.

So please look at amount of time spent too instead of just hands. Two weeks and a decent amount of hands per day will probably be a good indication of whether or not you're beating your stake, are a marginal winner or a losing player.

15k per level minimum. If after 15k you have the br to move up then do so. Obviously as you get to bigger limits you need a deeper roll but at this stage 15k and the br means move up.
If you dont have the br then continue to play at your current stakes until you do.
Otherwise go bonus whoring to help build the roll.

you should have 20 buy ins minium before you move up to a level. I like to have closer to 25-30.

I like 20. I 8 table and always reload if I dip below the Max buy-in,usually after 2000 hands I'm the chip leader on at least 6 tables, it's a nice feeling. Time is also a factor if I have $600 in my bankroll but my rent is due in 2 days, I won't risk playing $25 NL and having a bad swing and not being able to pay my rent and still have eneugh to play with. However if all my bills are paid for the next 3 weeks I'll gladly play $25NL with $400