Quote Originally Posted by bigboy5540
my example involves a maniac who i have studied and determined that calling with any two cards is +EV.
You are talking about EV. EV is a longterm concept. EV does not exist in the short term. If you play against a maniac who you decide is pushing PF with any 2 and you call with JJ and he turns over 23o and sucks out on you that play is +EV. If he turns over AA but you know he is pushing any 2 then it is still +EV to call. The point is that looking at the short term you would think calling with JJ was incorrect since he turned over AA.

In poker you often will only play the same person for a short period of time (especially if he is a maniac pushing any 2). In this case you cannot measure your results against this player over the longterm or even take a sample of their pushing range over the longterm. You need to make a short term decision but you do that by thinking about your experience with other maniacs who play in the same sort of way. You compare your JJ with his estimated long term hand range and you call.

When you take reads into account you are not ignoring the long term. You are saying, "this guy raises any 2 cards. In the short term it may be incorrect to call because he may have AA, however he may also have 23o so I know that over the long term calling would make me money even if he turns over AA this time and even if I dont get to play him for the long term."

In your example of calling a maniac with any 2 because you think he will pay off when you hits, you also must recognise that you might lose a little when you dont hit. This is a case of losing in the short term, by folding so many missed hands, because you realise that over the long term a small fraction of those hands will double you up and yield a net profit.

I didnt say that very clearly but basically I think you are misunderstanding what people mean by the long term. Long term doesnt mean you treat all opponents as equals. It means you chose the play that will maximise your profits (or minimise your losses) if that particular situation were to be repeated a million gazillion times.