line check plz

villian is 52/19 fish over 20 pretty agg/spazzy, open limper is a 16/12 pretty passive. whats everyones sizing prefence on this flop? once we get HU with the fish I feel like were basically committed. Was this spewy or ok?
I feel like this guy can have alot of garbage 2nd pair stuff that he'll fold and will prob call off with worse draws..I realize he called a 3b pre, but i rly dont think it will change this guys range all that much.. He also has stuff here were behind and prob wont fold JX etc. Just kinda an awkward spot.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($27.47)
UTG+1 ($29.28)
MP1 ($24.75)
MP2 ($25.58)
CO ($21.64)
Button ($15.96)
Hero (SB) ($25)
BB ($29.74)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Button bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.90, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1.65, Button calls $1.40

Flop: ($5.95) 8, 5, J (3 players)
Hero bets $3.50, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50

Turn: ($12.95) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $11.90, Button calls $10.56 (All-In)

When you put him all in what range did you put him on? What was the purpose of the raise?

OOP and with a psb left behind, it's fine. You have about 25% equity against his calling range and probably 25% FE as well. So the shove is justified and is probably about neutral EV compared to c/f'ing to a shove. In position tho, I like checking it back. However, if he's the type to give you a free card or make a gay bet, c/c is better.

The more I look at this hand the more I feel mehh about it.

I just didnt like c/folding either and if I c/c and miss then blehh but checking the turn seems better anyway and sometimes we get to see a cheap showdown/free river.

His range for calling on the flop is something like AJ,TJ,QJ,KJ,QTs,9Ts,67s (this range may be a bit tight) and since we have blockers for alot of draws it sucks even more so yeahh a shove is looking pretty meh cause we probably dont have much fold equity against this guy.

Also, as for his minraise pre-- as opposed to just limping behind-- makes me kind of want to eliminate some sc's from his range. so maybe not 67s or 9Ts, which puts us in worse shape.

Harley--what raise? pf?

Mike--I tend to agree with your rationale here, but the more I think about it idk if we have that much FE shoving vs this guy..debatable though.

Originally Posted by thelorax

Harley--what raise? pf?

My bad I should have said turn bet. Just trying to get into your head a little to see what you're thinking as you play through the hand.

To
A) Get him to call with worse draws /potentially fold better made hands
B) Because at the time I was thinking we prob had enough combined equity(gs+nfd+2 overs)/FE to make a shove here profitable
C)Cause stack sizes were such that all other options seemed shitty being oop at the moment, but Im hoping for confirmation or disagreement on this

I really like your flop sizing.

Assume [a worst-case scenarios where] his calling range is all sets. Against sets our equity is something like 2/9. We're shoving about 10.5 into 13, the final pot will be about 34, so we're getting about 68/9 back, which is like 7.5 or so. Since we're betting about 10.5 but getting about 7.5 back, we're only risking $3, and 3/(3+13) = 3/16 = 0.1875, so we need him to fold about 19-20% to break even on a shove in terms of absolute EV after the rake. It's anyone's guess how much we need him to fold to make it better than checking because checking is such a complex scenario with too many variables we can't estimate well, but it's probably somewhere in the 22-26% range.

I like it in theory at least. You left enough to give yourself great odds on the turn but still have a lot of FE. It'd be nice if the T was a Q but the T is still the second best card for us that doesn't actually give us a made hand.

It's hard to say whether this is +EV here simply because of the opponent. Let's assume that he does at least have part of a brain because he doesnt have 100 VPIP and in that case I think it's probably alright.

It's probably worth pointing out that if you have *any* semi-bluffs in your turn range, AsKs has to be in your turn range (unless you have AsQs, AsJs, KsQs here?).

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

It's probably worth pointing out that if you have *any* semi-bluffs in your turn range, AsKs has to be in your turn range (unless you have AsQs, AsJs, KsQs here?).

Hey spoon, are you referring to your "Betting with equity" thread?
"If adding semi-bluffs to your range that are break even in a vacuum is +EV for your range as a whole, then obviously making semi-bluffs that are +EV in a vacuum will be greatly +EV for your range as a whole. "

I also worked through the part about semibluffs in your Math of EV thread, changing the numbers you had in there initially to apply to this hand.

Say it’s 25nl and the pot is $13 and we have $10.5 behind heads-up. If we shove our 10.5 and we think we’ll have 20% (actually 22% vs worst case scenario) equity when we’re called, how often does Villain have to fold for it to be +EV? First, we’ll find the total pot size after Villain calls, and that’s $34. Second, we’ll find our equity’s percent of that pot, and 20% of 34 is $6.8. Now we subtract $6.8 from our bet size of $10.5 to get $3.7 which is our x value. To finish, our Villain’s fold % has to be greater than x/(x+P) for our semi-bluff to be +EV, which is
3.7/(3.7+13)=22.1

So villain has to fold more than 22% of the time for this to be +EV in a vacuum right? (basically what you did in your earlier response, but wanted to try it for myself)

Don, yeah Id be more happy about the hand if the T was a Q..or if I got there on the riv

@thelorax, Referring to the quoted part, what I meant in this thread is that if you look at your range going into the turn, of all of the hands you cannot bet for value, AsKs is one of the best to bluff with. Then if you have a bluffing range at all, AsKs has to be one of the first hands you put in it.

"If adding semi-bluffs to your range that are break even in a vacuum is +EV for your range as a whole, then obviously making semi-bluffs that are +EV in a vacuum will be greatly +EV for your range as a whole."

If you knew for some reason that shoving AsKs on the turn was break even in a vacuum, then it would be +EV overall since it should mean that you get called more often. Even if he doesn't call more to adjust, you're freerolling since there's a non-zero chance he calls more and you're risking 0 EV to do it.

You did the semi-bluffing calculation right. There's a proof in that thread that shows why that works, but it's kind of tricky.