I have been discussing this topic with a friend as I think it might be a not insubstantial leak in my game. I have simplified both my tactics and the maths involved for ease of comprehension, but please tell me if you disagree with my point or if you think my calculations are way off.

Also, bear in mind I am talking specifically about full ring $25NL or thereabouts.

Central premise: every time I get Axs (where x is <T), I limp. I am ignoring position because I am just looking at an average here, and I am assuming that the amount I win with a non-flush hand is balanced out by the amount I lose to a boat etc.

50% of the time when I limp, the pot is raised and I fold.

Statistically, 6% of suited hands make their flush by the river. For the sake of argument, let's say I get to the river (or make the flush earlier) 4% of the time, to compensate for the times I am forced to fold. This means I hit my nut flush 1 time in 25 times I see the flop, and therefore in in every 50 times I limp with Axs.

Ergo, I need to make a profit of AT LEAST 50 big blinds every time I make my flush for this tactic to be +EV.

Thoughts?