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  1. #1

    Default Leak?

    Ok so I've been playing a ton of poker for the last year or so. NL holdem tournaments mainly. I normally go by the 2 4 rule for calculating odds, but I can't find the answer to this one problem. What are my outs/odds of hitting the backdoor flush? Lately I've come into alot of situations where I hit middle pair on the flop with a backdoor flush draw, and can't decide whether or not I'm getting value out of calling, or if I should just lay it down. If it's a pot bet or larger bet, I obviously fold. Is it a leak to be calling bets with these hands looking to improve my hand into a flush, or maybe trips?
  2. #2
    5% or so

    1/4 * 1/5
  3. #3
    So if I have middle pair for instance on the flop with backdoor. I'de have about a 32% chance of hitting another pair or trips taking it to the river, and add 5% on top for backdoor flush. approx: 36-38% of hitting. Am I right? With this said, I would only be wanting to make calls within 40% of the pot size, correct?
  4. #4
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    I think SSH says a backdoor flush is worth about one more out if you're getting all-in on the flop.
  5. #5
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    You can evaluate it at 1 to 1.5 outs. 1.5 because the Backdoor flush makes it and your opponent won't give you credit for it.

    Runner Runner Straights are:
    no gappers (789) 1.5 outs
    1 gappers (78t) 1 out
    2 gappers (78J) .5 outs
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
  6. #6
    The chance to hit runner runner flush cards is this:
    10 cards out of 47 must hit - then 9 cards out of 46 must hit. You could state this mathematically as 9/46th of 10 outs on the turn - that's 1.95 outs.

    You can say that your 10 immediate outs are 'good' outs 1.95 outs of the time (to a better draw, not a made hand) and 'bad' outs 8.05 outs of the time.
  7. #7
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Erpel
    The chance to hit runner runner flush cards is this:
    10 cards out of 47 must hit - then 9 cards out of 46 must hit. You could state this mathematically as 9/46th of 10 outs on the turn - that's 1.95 outs.

    You can say that your 10 immediate outs are 'good' outs 1.95 outs of the time (to a better draw, not a made hand) and 'bad' outs 8.05 outs of the time.
    No point in calculating it just to the turn, because in order to get a runner runner flush draw, you've got to go to the river.

    So on the flop you evaluate your outs, all the way to the river, then on the turn you evaluate your outs all the way to the river again.

    Calculating outs is an attempt to justify value with an inferior hand, there is no value in drawing to a draw.
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes

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