KQo hit set with turn scarecard

$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Jesur CR ($2.88)
UTG+1 josan_8_8411 ($1.97)
MP1 carmas80 ($4.87)
MP2 Hero ($1.80)
CO Wim Jong ($0.74)
BTN paultracker ($0.81)
SB Hokisss ($2.25)
BB lavilast ($1.56)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 8 players) Hero is MP2
2 folds, carmas80 raises to $0.12, Hero calls $0.12, 4 folds

villain is 34/16/6.0 (VPIP/PFR/Agg) over about 50 hands, I flat called in position for value and the others behind me were very tight. At this point villains range is like {66+,A7s+,A5s,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo}

Flop: ($0.27, 2 players)
carmas80 bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.50, carmas80 calls $0.30

Yay I hit a set, he cbets and I reraise again for value expecting him to call with something like {A5s+,K9s+,QJs,A7o+,KTo+,QJo} as I expect him to not be able to lay down an A, and may chase. At this point my equity in this range is:

85.644% { KdQs }
14.356% {A5s+,K9s+,QJs,A7o+,KTo+,QJo}


Turn: ($1.27, 2 players)
carmas80 bets $0.14, Hero folds

Well now that same range is way ahead, says the almighty pokerstove:


24.791% { KdQs }
75.209% { A5s+, K9s+, QJs, A7o+, KTo+, QJo }


so technically the more money thats put into that pot, the more he would win in the long run assuming an accurate range.

Him betting .14 into a 1.27 pot tells me he is happy, personally. Im not sure, what do you guys think of this psychologically?

But it is only .14 into 1.27 giving me 10:1 odds to call so I only have to be good less than 10% of the time to call, which I am so ez call right? I was at the time concerned about a river bet which he would most likely bluff if he missed or play for value if he was already made.. either way I feel like im humped.

So good fold or do I need to grow a pair?

Trips by the way, not a set. A set is holding a pp and hitting the third card...trips is both cards 2 and 3 coming on the flop turn or river.

100BB buy in with auto rebuy is the way to go.

Raise the flop bigger because he is not folding an ace.

Never fold to that turn bet so call and evaluate the river - calling a river bet is dependent on sizing/pot odds/timing/his range assuming we don't hit the 1 outer.

Originally Posted by HoopyDude

100BB buy in with auto rebuy is the way to go.

Raise the flop bigger because he is not folding an ace.

Never fold to that turn bet so call and evaluate the river - calling a river bet is dependent on sizing/pot odds/timing/his range assuming we don't hit the 1 outer.

This

i too agree with hoopy. you are getting 10:1, meaning you only need 9% equity to continue profitably. your hand is far too strong to fold, and too weak to raise (ie he only calls with chops/hands that you are crushed by). i call and see what he does on the river.

This was an informative post, thanks for sharing.
RPM, why does he need just 9% equity and not 10% to maintain profitability?

A $0.14 bet into a $1.27 at the 2nl level would tell me villain does not have an ace.I'd raise the turn and try to get as many chips in by the river as possible.He bet $.20 on the flop and only $.14 on the turn,he doesn't have an ace.Maybe a pp or a K that we beat.

Originally Posted by supahaole

A $0.14 bet into a $1.27 at the 2nl level would tell me villain does not have an ace.I'd raise the turn and try to get as many chips in by the river as possible.He bet $.20 on the flop and only $.14 on the turn,he doesn't have an ace.Maybe a pp or a K that we beat.

1) A small bet into a large pot can really mean anything at 2nl.
2) The 3 reasons for raising turn would be for value, as a bluff, or to take the dead money in the pot. We can't really bet for value because we're chopping/beat a lot, because pp's won't call assuming he knows triple pairs are pretty much worthless here. WE CAN'T BEAT A KING HERE WE CAN ONLY USE 5 CARDS SO OUR KICKER DOESN'T COUNT LOL. As a bluff..We aren't going to get better hands to fold.. People don't fold top boat at 2nl.. Taking the dead money in the pot.. We have a boat, how often do we have them beat and they aren't drawing dead??

Think about why you're betting/raising imo.
*This post had no anger behind it, I don't hate you or anything, just I strongly disagree with what you said.

10:1 means that for every 10 he loses, he needs to win one in order to breakeven. thus he needs to win one out of every eleven. 1/11 = 0.9, or 9%. consider it like this. we'll do it 11 times and if he wins one out of 10 (which translates to roughly 9% of the 11 times) then he will break even.
the first one we win and profit our $1.40 (the pot)
the next ten we lose $0.14 cents. 10 x $0.14 = $1.40

in reality it is far more complex than this because our calculations dont factor in how much can be bet on the river, and how often we will win or lose when that happens. because of this i'd advise ignoring all of this post and checking out some of the threads in the beginner's digest which will explain these to you far better than i can.

Quote:
Originally Posted by supahaole
A $0.14 bet into a $1.27 at the 2nl level would tell me villain does not have an ace.I'd raise the turn and try to get as many chips in by the river as possible.He bet $.20 on the flop and only $.14 on the turn,he doesn't have an ace.Maybe a pp or a K that we beat.

1) A small bet into a large pot can really mean anything at 2nl.
2) The 3 reasons for raising turn would be for value, as a bluff, or to take the dead money in the pot. We can't really bet for value because we're chopping/beat a lot, because pp's won't call assuming he knows triple pairs are pretty much worthless here. WE CAN'T BEAT A KING HERE WE CAN ONLY USE 5 CARDS SO OUR KICKER DOESN'T COUNT LOL. As a bluff..We aren't going to get better hands to fold.. People don't fold top boat at 2nl.. Taking the dead money in the pot.. We have a boat, how often do we have them beat and they aren't drawing dead??

Think about why you're betting/raising imo.
*This post had no anger behind it, I don't hate you or anything, just I strongly disagree with what you said.

This is the line of logic I was going with. I suppose I should have called given that I had the pot odds. Although with the equity I had in the hand at the time I felt like I was close to even money at the time.

Originally Posted by fatguy'06

This is the line of logic I was going with. I suppose I should have called given that I had the pot odds. Although with the equity I had in the hand at the time I felt like I was close to even money at the time.

Hammer of future bets imo.