KQo @ 25NL - FR

Villain is 53/6 over 53 hands.

Which means he is bad, his range is mega wide.
22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,A To+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,98o,87o,76o,65o (It is important to note that my hand is only a 51% equity favorite against this range) Also, the argument can be made that AK and qq+ Are not in his range but I kept them there cause I dont really have a good reason to leave them in or out, comments are apperciated. )


And in theory it is too narrow. But at 28% I can see this being an okay range.

Flop: My equity against his preflop range is 67%. Now the calling range is tough. I am going to through out all flush draws all suited connecters below T, leaving

99+,A2s+,K9s+,Q8s+,T8s+,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo, now that i do the analysis I am actually behind his calling range. So it actually makes sense for me to check here. Can this be right? What am I missing here? His reraise should further define his range to Two pairs sets, and maybe all qx hands for a guy who loves to draw. Making his range 99+,ATs+,K9s+,Q8s+,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo, my equity is still around 47% and giving the 3.5. A call makes sense.

His check starts to weigh his hand towards his draws and Nut type hands, being that i don't know where I am and that i am behind against his range a free card is in order. I like the 4h because it misses a lot of his draws. His all in means nuts or a missed draw. which is his entire range minus 99. against TT+,ATs+,K9s+,Q8s+,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo, I have 54% equity, which means a call is in order.

Your comments are appreciated.




PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($12.40)
UTG+1 ($23.50)
MP1 ($4.75)
MP2 ($4.65)
MP3 ($5)
Hero (CO) ($30.30)
Button ($45.35)
SB ($6.15)
BB ($16.40)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, Q
UTG calls $0.25, 4 folds, Hero bets $1.25, 2 folds, BB calls $1, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.85) 10, K, A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, BB raises to $4.25, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($11.35) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($11.35) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $10.90 (All-In), Hero ???

With these guys it can be more helpful to get a grasp on their basic tendencies postflop because you can go nuts trying to guess if they hit whatever flop you get.

Most of these guys are calling stations or spew monkey's.

When someone plays this many hands it shouldn't take long to an idea of what they are doing with air/pairs/whatever they see as the nuts.

I prefer to fold to this flop raise if we don't have a specific read that he may go aggro with gutshot draw and bottom pair type of hands. But it seems unlikely to have that kind of read in only 50 hands...

Of course, we have a gutshot but 4 outs doesn't seem enough to me. As played I'd fold the river.

Hi ,Thanks for posting a hand with analysis.

Ive read it a few times.
I play 2NL 6max So I dont know too much.

I think these bad players like the look of Ax and any suited. I tweaked Pokerstove and found your equity 55% , But thats neither here nor there.





What's this 28% reffering to ?

Originally Posted by !Luck

..... But at 28% I can see this being an okay range.

I dont know where you are with this hand , but I dont like it one bit when he check raises the flop.
It does look like QJ here. We can make decisions on equity tweaks everyday of the week.
My analysis is quite basic but and I farted around with pokerstove but I cant get away from this....



Do we want to be losing half our stack to an Ax monkey ?

Your range is far too wide on the river, Q8s? Really? You think he raises the flop with no pair and a GSSD? His PF VPIP/PFR gap leads me to believe he's probably a really loose passive fish. Loose passive don't typically c/r bluff their gutters.

From his flop c/r I could see, AT-AK, KT-KQ, QT-QJ, TJ, TT, KK-AA, and not much else tbqh. I don't have pokerstove cuz I'm on an lolMac, but I'm guessing ur pretty crushed by this range.

I think the flop is a fold, maybe more borderline than I think, and river is a pretty simple c/f. He isn't going to randomly bluff jam TJ on the river here. I mean, every once in a great while if he's tilting megaballs you might catch him doing this, but this is so weighted towards the nuts it makes me want to barf.

28% of hands calling a raise is reasonable for a 53/6 but I can see more offsuit aces in his range: I can't picture him laying down A9o or A8o, or maybe not even any Axo against a CO raise. I have no problem keeping the big pairs in there although maybe we should discount them a little.

If I add all the offsuit aces to his flop calling range and I remove 99, then your equity becomes only 40%. The best possible draw on the board is a gutshot, which you have yourself, so yes I think this one is a case where checking back the flop is better (but then I am an unworthy 2NLer who checks back his set of 4's on the river, so what do I know?). You have a good hand with second pair and a gutshot to go with it, and you have position, so it would be bad to be forced to fold to a serious raise. So check back and see what happens on the turn.

It would be useful to have some indication of what his postflop tendencies are. Have you seen him raise before? Hard to say what his range is after his raise but definitely all the aces, sets, two pairs are in there, and possibly all pair and gutshot combos. Let's exclude gutshots alone and second and third pairs with no kicker to be conservative and we get: TT+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo against which you still have 36% equity. Since the pot odds are about 22%, I think calling is OK. Calling is not unlikely to give you two free cards to improve, since he might be wary of a better kicker if he has an Ax for example. You are also likely to win more if you hit, and he is not very likely to get much more out of you if you don't improve.

I don't think the Ac and his check on the turn change his range. Maybe he was trying to improve and he did not, maybe his hand is not that good and he waits to see what you will do or maybe he has a super good hand like a set (now a full house) or trip aces that he is slowplaying. So checking the turn is right.

Then he shoves the river and I can't see him do that without at least a pair of aces, unless he is tilting or bluffing. Even if he does that with his entire flop and turn range, you only have 26.4% equity on this board, and he is laying 32.8% pot odds, so you can't call.

I do this as much as an exercise for myself as to hopefully give something back to people who comment on my hands when I post them, so feel free to criticize what I said, it helps me as well.

Originally Posted by dranger7070

You think he raises the flop with no pair and a GSSD?

At 2NL, some people sure do! (but then we're all retards, so)... This is not the first one I see, looks like these guys are taking a gutshot for a draw that has a high likelihood of success...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

MP ($0.90)
CO ($2.94)
Button ($2.53)
SB ($1.03)
Villain (BB) ($3.92)
Hero (UTG) ($2)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, A
Hero bets $0.08, 4 folds, Villain calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.17) 10, A, A (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $0.10, Villain raises to $0.47, Hero raises to $1.92 (All-In), Villain calls $1.45

Turn: ($4.01) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($4.01) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $4.01 | Rake: $0.26

Results:
Villain had K, Q (two pair, Aces and tens).
Hero had Q, A (full house, Aces over tens).
Outcome: Hero won $3.75 (thank you for your generous contribution to my stack!)

I wasn't saying it NEVER happens, but to say that he will do that with Q8s every time is a bit of a stretch. Hell, the guy could have showed up with 97o, but that doesn't mean we would put that in his range 100% of the time. When I build a range, I go for the most conservative, yet accurate accurate range I can. My range above is likely WAY tighter than the actual range the villain will show up with, but he WILL have every single one of those hands in his range at all times.

Originally Posted by dranger7070

I wasn't saying it NEVER happens, but to say that he will do that with Q8s every time is a bit of a stretch. Hell, the guy could have showed up with 97o, but that doesn't mean we would put that in his range 100% of the time. When I build a range, I go for the most conservative, yet accurate accurate range I can. My range above is likely WAY tighter than the actual range the villain will show up with, but he WILL have every single one of those hands in his range at all times.

I agree with what you said. If you look at my post above you will see that I excluded pure gutshots (not accompanied by a pair) from his flop raising range. I was just posting that hand to mention that it is not all that infrequent.

Yea sorry, I didn't mean to come off as being so defensive about it lol.

Yeah. My mind messes up at times where I see a loose I think "He sucks, I good" thus hand better. That logic is -EV.

I can't quite decide if I like the check behind on the flop. And I think I do, because I have great show down value hand. Even against a medium stack I do not want to create a situation where he is going to be all in.

All I am getting from this is I need to check flop. With so much evidence and no playing tendencies i have to rely on math. Which is Fold.

Let me know if you guys want me to post results for this hand.

Befor you Post result.

I think hes KT .
2nd guess A4

Just fold the flop, seems pretty easy.

It's not like you'll get paid a tonne if you catch the gutshot as its obv. You won't even know if you are ahead if you catch a Q and even a K might not be an out.

Option 1. Fold the flop
Option 2. Dont bet the flop.
Option 3. Donate

I know which one i like

classic example of why putting people on a simple range and plugging it into some poker calculater is a waste of time.

working on a value range would be a better idea and applying randomn bs percentage makes more sense. or use Rentons idea.

Originally Posted by MuddyWicket

classic example of why putting people on a simple range and plugging it into some poker calculater is a waste of time.

working on a value range would be a better idea and applying randomn bs percentage makes more sense. or use Rentons idea.

Explain first sentence please.

Originally Posted by dranger7070

Originally Posted by MuddyWicket

classic example of why putting people on a simple range and plugging it into some poker calculater is a waste of time.

working on a value range would be a better idea and applying randomn bs percentage makes more sense. or use Rentons idea.

Explain first sentence please.

I think he's saying we came up with some bullshit range and put it in stove and now he thinks he's priced in with second pair/good kicker with gutshot on this board to a flop raise.

Like we don't need to stove this, just fold tot he raise, better still, check flop.

Gotcha, ty.

Originally Posted by !Luck

Let me know if you guys want me to post results for this hand.

You mean you called his all in on the river?? Wow!

Yes I'd be curious to see what he had.

Originally Posted by Muzzard

Originally Posted by dranger7070

Originally Posted by MuddyWicket

classic example of why putting people on a simple range and plugging it into some poker calculater is a waste of time.

working on a value range would be a better idea and applying randomn bs percentage makes more sense. or use Rentons idea.

Explain first sentence please.

I think he's saying we came up with some bullshit range and put it in stove and now he thinks he's priced in with second pair/good kicker with gutshot on this board to a flop raise.

Like we don't need to stove this, just fold tot he raise, better still, check flop.

Maybe the ranges we came up with are bullshit, but screaming that they are without contributing your own analysis is what is truly useless here.

If it's a crap move to call a small raise on this flop, there has to be a reason behind it, so state it: what ranges and other reasons do you see there that preclude to call?

its just something that bugs me in these forums and this hand is a good example because his value range on the flop crushes middle pair as it is at least top pair and includes str8's, two pair and sets. Then assign a percentage he turns up with fkall/bs say 20% then fold.

Just picking a range of possible cards seems wrong to me, without splitting the ranges up via Rentons ABC theory or some other theory relevant to the hand.

For this hand thinking of the villains range he raises for value is more relevant. ignore the bs cards and just assign a % for bs.

TT, AQ, AK, KK, AA imo, maybe retarded QJs. raising JJ/QQ is bs and turning up with KT is plaing wierd. If the villain is bad add more aces.

OK. Well even against that ultra tight range (I think KT is very possible, and certainly AT should be there: guy is 53/6, do you really think he folds AT preflop or does not raise on the flop?), we still have 15% equity. Pot odds are 22%, and we have some implied odds and little reverse implied odds, so I would say it is still a call (although arguable). If we add KT and AT in the range, equity becomes 20%.

I'll have to have a better look at the ABCD theorem though, I onluy browsed over it earlier.

You really don't need to bet this flop. 99-22 is folding to a bet anyway and you have those hands crushed. Maybe you get JT or QT in there for one street, but I mean in general his calling range on that flop is going to have your hand beat a good percentage of the time, let alone his flop check/raise range. Anyway Id fold to the flop raise, and as played fold the river.

Originally Posted by daviddem

Originally Posted by Muzzard

Originally Posted by dranger7070

Originally Posted by MuddyWicket

classic example of why putting people on a simple range and plugging it into some poker calculater is a waste of time.

working on a value range would be a better idea and applying randomn bs percentage makes more sense. or use Rentons idea.

Explain first sentence please.

I think he's saying we came up with some bullshit range and put it in stove and now he thinks he's priced in with second pair/good kicker with gutshot on this board to a flop raise.

Like we don't need to stove this, just fold tot he raise, better still, check flop.

Maybe the ranges we came up with are bullshit, but screaming that they are without contributing your own analysis is what is truly useless here.

If it's a crap move to call a small raise on this flop, there has to be a reason behind it, so state it: what ranges and other reasons do you see there that preclude to call?

My analysis is this:
1) Preflop is fine
2) Don't bet the flop, its going to be hard for him to call with worse than KQ, ie KJ/K9 whatever might call one street but is going to fold turn a decent % unless heis a moron.
3)On this board we basically can't value bet KQ 3 times unless we straight up. We can't be 100% that trip K's will be good as he may already have a straight or KT or AK that will have a boat anyway. We defo can't say that a Q is an out as obv straight.
4) We could check this flop to get some value/thin value whatever from worse on turn/river or bink turn straight/trips/two pair play it from there
5) The guy is a preflop moron yes, but he is probably very passive, so his limp/calling range that raises this flop is >>>>>>>>>KQ, we don't have great implied odds as basically we can only really rely 100% on the straight outs and obv its going to be hard for him to call 2 extra streets without it also.
6) Check flop
7) Fold to c/raise on flop

Did I spend enough typing time for you to now accept my 'analysis'?

I think this is an easy fold on the river. The raise on the flop is pretty strong as is the river all-in on that board. He did check the turn, but probably because he was hoping you would bet it for him, not because he is weak or drawing. An ace is a pretty obvious scare card and there's two of them and he doesn't seemed concerned at all about it, which should be disconcerting for hero. He plays over 1/2 his hands and doesn't PFR much and now he's pushing. I think we can find a much better spot.

It's good that you're working on ranges, but a couple of thoughts: 53% is very loose and against those types of players, you're going to be hard pressed to put them on anything worthwhile PRE-FLOP. This is the type of villain that you really need notes on how they play post-flop. What's his showdown %? How does he play his draws? Made hands? Sets? Monsters? Has he shown down bluffing as the aggressor? Calling down light? Those types of things. You only have 53 hands and didn't mention any notes, so you're going to have to take a pretty standard line which is fold. If he's spazzing out with any hand that you BEAT, again, I think you'll find a better spot to take advantage later when there's not 2 aces and a straight on the board. This is what I think gets a lot of players in trouble: trying to force the issue in marginal to bad spots against bad players.

fold.You got only pair of kings.He can have A or straight maybe full house.
Bad players getting good hands too

Originally Posted by Muzzard

Just fold the flop, seems pretty easy..

duh

Jason,

You are right. I find that I play worse against bad players because I assume they are bad, which is very very -ev. In this case I called, but I agree that all evidence point to fold. I have started getting better at folding good hands on flop, ie, I find that my life is much better (more +ev), when I fold to most decent reraises on the flop even with top pair type of hands, do i miss some value? I know i do. But the more I play the more I realize that it is okay the fold the best on the flop. That's a hard concept for me to accept.

!luck

Originally Posted by !Luck

Jason,

You are right. I find that I play worse against bad players because I assume they are bad, which is very very -ev. In this case I called, but I agree that all evidence point to fold. I have started getting better at folding good hands on flop, ie, I find that my life is much better (more +ev), when I fold to most decent reraises on the flop even with top pair type of hands, do i miss some value? I know i do. But the more I play the more I realize that it is okay the fold the best on the flop. That's a hard concept for me to accept.

!luck

You will play bad against bad players because you dont know how to play them, not because you are assuming they play bad. If you think they play bad, and they really play bad theres nothing wrong with that.

I like the way you play the hand

river call anyway, if check turn u should call river