First opp is not full stacked and his bet sizing sucks, so he must be pretty bad.

Don't you think he'd be more likely to raise QQ+ preflop UTG? If he is the kind to limp/reraise his strong hands, well, that's not what he did: he limp/called.

If you include QQ+, how about TT-JJ? But I am pretty sure he would raise that preflop as well.

Not sure why you have JT in his flop raising range. JT only has a gutshot and the two overs can't be considered clean outs, so why would he raise?

T8s, maybe.

Considering all this, it looks to me that his range is pretty heavily weighted towards sets. Occasionally, from really bad opps, you could be shown a horribly played AA, or T8s, or JJ or TT. I tend not to assume that unknown=complete retard though. So I think folding the flop is certainly not horrible.

In these situations, you pretty much have to make your commitment decision on the flop. Your plan of folding to a big turn lead is flawed, since he can get his stack in by the river with small bets. So on the flop, if you have less than 50% equity vs his range, fold. If you think you beat his range, might as well shove right there because he doesn't look like he is going to fold anything he's got.