KK out of position, A river

Villain - 19/12 and has folded to 12/15 (80%) 3bets over 489 hands

Absolute, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $18.97
MP: $6.03
CO: $13.90
BTN: $19.45
Hero (SB): $10.42
BB: $10

Pre-Flop: dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG raises to $0.35, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, BB folds, UTG calls $0.90

Flop: ($2.60) (2 Players)
Hero bets $1.40, UTG calls $1.40

Turn: ($5.40) (2 Players)
Hero bets $2.90, UTG calls $2.90

River: ($11.20) (2 Players)
Hero...

i'll have a crack

villain seems competent for a 10nler on what information we have (Villain - 19/12 and has folded to 12/15 (80%) 3bets over 489 hands). so i'm guessing his UTG range is pretty strong:
22+,AQ+
and continue to 3bet range is:
22+,AQs,AK at its absolute widest, he may fold some setmining hands like 22-77 but i'll leave them in there.

this dude folds to 3bets a ton, however only 0.5% of his range has us beat so 3betting for value is obviously still good, and i dont mind your sizing.

on the flop i prefer betting more like $2.2 or $2.3 because i doubt his calling range changes at all facing bets between $1 and $2.4. and we beat most of it. when he calls the flop i'm guessing his range is:
55,99+
however there are only 3 combos of each set and i believe they can be discounted because raising sets here is pretty common, i imagine he would raise 55,99,TT at least 50% of the time here. especially because your range looks strong and its a 3bet pot. so its weighted way more toward JJ-KK imo. i doubt he has any non-paired hands left in his range because he seems switched on and your range is strong, however he may float AK some of the time, but i'll leave it out.

i think the turn is a pretty good bet/fold spot because he has JJ alot and isn't folding it. he also probably raises all sets here because your range got even stronger (because you fired the second barrel). bearing in mind that he only has 1.5ish combos of 99,TT when he doesn't raise the flop, i think we can bet/fold for value, i prefer more though, perhaps $4, because we are betting for value against JJ (which we assume calls 100%) and folding vs a raise. so we want to maximise value versus that range.

river i cant see him calling with much worse, not that we have many, if any, A's in our range. i'm checking without any idea how i react if he bets (because i'm a fish obviously). hope that helped

edit: did not take stack sizes into account at all when i did this, so take it with a grain of salt

As played I think shoving the river is fine, he rarely has 99/55/TT in this spot and JJ/KQ/88(maybe) are getting a good price to call.

Betting the flop bigger with your value range is a good idea, it's fine to bet smaller with air like AK since he won't notice. So $2.20 and shove turn seems good as well since he's not folding most hands to a slightly bigger sizing. Your line is good since it keeps his range wider but sometimes the board runs out bad and stops him putting money in.

i sincerely doubt 88 is calling this river, or that KQ is in his range. that said, pot flop and shove turn looks pretty good to me now you mention it. i pretty much assumed infinite stacks and didn't really take into account SPR before. there isn't much of a river decision to this hand if the flop and turn are played well imo.

Originally Posted by rpm

i sincerely doubt 88 is calling this river, or that KQ is in his range. that said, pot flop and shove turn looks pretty good to me now you mention it. i pretty much assumed infinite stacks and didn't really take into account SPR before. there isn't much of a river decision to this hand if the flop and turn are played well imo.

Good point 88 is unlikely and KQ is the same/only has a few combo's.

Preflop.

I like doubling the size of the pot. I see that you choose a bigger bet size -- how did you determine the bet size ?

When your opp calls PF I put him on pocket pairs and AK. Was that roughly your range ?


FLOP.
I like your flop bet.


When he calls your flop bet -- I'd start to rule out AK, and pocket pairs below a 9. So I'm left with 99--AA.


Beating
JJ = 6 combos
QQ = 6 combos

Total = 12 combos

Losing to
99 = 3 combo
TT = 3 combo
AA = 6 combos

Total = 12 combos

I was surprised by this result. My first thought was that you would be well ahead of his range. Now I'm not so sure.


Would he have called this far with hands like KJ, QJ, AT, AK, 88 or something trashier ? Logically the answer is no.


Obviously this judgement would dramatically affect the hand range above.


How loose is this guy ?????



TURN.

Originally I thougth you should bet more here. After looking at the hand ranges above -- I'm more conflicted. If my hand ranges is too narrow you should bet. A nice solid bet here will define the strength of you hand -- possibly making it easier to judge his response. Also it will extract value from the hands you are currently beating.



If you think the above hand ranges are accurate you could check here for pot control. The hands you beat are very UNlikely to improve. The hands that beat you are dying to get your stack (or should be).



RIVER.

Originally I thought this was a bad card. But in the context of the hand ranges above it makes only a small difference. It doesn't HELP any of the hands I've put him on. However it is a scare card for part of his range. QQ and JJ will NOT like this card.

And of course if you think my range is too narrow part of his range has now improved. All AX hands plus KJ just outdrew you. And of course those hands will make you want to vomit. Have puke bag hand just in case.


I'd be inclined to check the river. Too bad you are OOP.


If he goes all in on the river I think you have to fold. YUCK!

SHOVING THE TURN.


That's an interesting possibility. And of course it means you'll bet stacked by a set and probably AA. But it also means that you have a chance of doubling up against JJ and QQ.


Will those hands want to fold putting you in a position of only getting called when you beat ? I dunno.


You'll have 7+ left and 5+ pot so bet size wise it's not unreasonable.


Speaking for myself I don't like the play. I don't like to go broke with just a pair. I generally prefer small ball poker. Additionally I like this play more when I think my opp is likely on a draw. Here I think you are in a way ahead, way behind scenario which in my understanding usually indicates that caution is in order. But maybe it's my leak under utilizing power poker.

Originally Posted by shallam

That's an interesting possibility. And of course it means you'll bet stacked by a set and probably AA. But it also means that you have a chance of doubling up against JJ and QQ.

QQ makes a set on the turn.

I don't really mind the smallish flop bet on that board. It's fairly dry and i'm not sure what worse hands are calling a big bet. As a matter of fact if he is particularly aggro i may even check my kings on the flop and hope he bets into me. My aggro i means he will bet a lot of air and draws and hands that we beat if we check. If you decide to play you kings as a bluff catcher i think you need to continue the facade on the turn as well. Then if he bets again on the turn probably call depending on his double value betting range. Some folks are plenty brave on the flop but will not fire a second bullet unless they have a strong hand. Also like the turn bet i would bet fold the river. I doubt he is raising with anything that we beat. If he is really passive post flop. Thats to say he's never betting without and ace or better i may even check the river. Then i can confidently fold when he bets and not worry about being bluffed.

Originally Posted by shallam

Preflop.

I like doubling the size of the pot. I see that you choose a bigger bet size -- how did you determine the bet size ?

.................................................. ............................

flop and turn sizing is fine/standard.

as for the river, i'd just like to point out that villain is almost never shoving here as a bluff. realizing this should make this decision very very easy