Let's think about ranges.
The
button's
call allows the SB to expand his
calling range to include tons of
suited connectors, broadways, Axs, pps,
suited 1 gappers etc. As
well as I assume some bigger
Ax hands.
Flop range: He's calling with made flushes,
Ax with a diamond (ie. AdJx AdQx etc.) he may
call some % of the time with sets and hopes to
stack off on any non diamond
turn even though this is pretty suboptimal.
I am pretty sure he'd be raising a hand like Ax9d on this
flop as
well as AxTd. He's also almost certainly raising J9,
two pair (though sometimes this hand falls into the same weird logic of sets above.)
Range for c/r this
turn: I honestly
don't see why he would ever
jam a
flush here after calling the
flop since if the
turn bricks there is a fair chance you might
fire a 3rd
barrel when he checks. I'd say his most likely holdings are still
pair + Ad hands especially something like AdQx which is conceivable since a lot of people at
micros are not squeezing this hand in the SB even though that's probably a better play some % of the time. Personally, I'd expect to be
ahead between 50-55% of the time already if not more and if you are
behind sets or stupidly played 2Pr then you have diamond and K
outs.
You're calling 2.70ish to win about 8 so I couldn't see ever folding this.