KK IP facing a LAG c/c and shove the river

Hey folks

Sorry for the format. I havent posted enough to use the Hand Converter.

Villain is 66/12 AF 2 AFQ 45 over 78 hands. I have seen him 3Bet all-in preflop with 33 and c/c down to the river OOP with high card. I am puting him on any broadway, Ax, 22+. I think my flop and turn bets are on the weak side. He c/c flop and turn and then shoves river.

Full Tilt Poker Game #23170554390: Table Vanilla - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 01:20:27 ET - 2010/08/18
Seat 1: IamBlackMember ($15.81)
Seat 2: d_man_rit_chea ($0), is sitting out
Seat 3: Openside ($19.09)
Seat 4: angwy ($10)
Seat 5: pwhitepok ($6.43)
Seat 6: faruk_06 ($28.16)
Seat 7: sharp817 ($10)
Seat 8: JKR14260 ($10.96)
Seat 9: Khumanan ($8.55)
pwhitepok posts the small blind of $0.05
faruk_06 posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Openside [Kh Ks]
JKR14260 calls $0.10
Khumanan folds
IamBlackMember folds
Openside raises to $0.40
angwy folds
pwhitepok folds
faruk_06 calls $0.30
JKR14260 has 15 seconds left to act
JKR14260 calls $0.30
*** FLOP *** [5d 9s 9c]
faruk_06 checks
JKR14260 checks
Openside bets $1
faruk_06 folds
JKR14260 calls $1
*** TURN *** [5d 9s 9c] [Js]
JKR14260 checks
Openside bets $1.90
JKR14260 calls $1.90
*** RIVER *** [5d 9s 9c Js] [2s]
JKR14260 has 15 seconds left to act
JKR14260 bets $4.10
Openside has 15 seconds left to act

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
7 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($10.96)
UTG+1 ($8.55)
MP ($15.81)
Hero ($19.09)
BTN ($10)
SB ($6.43)
BB ($28.16)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 7 players) Hero is CO
UTG calls $0.10, UTG+1 folds, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls $0.30, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1, BB folds, UTG calls $1

Turn: ($3.25, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.90, UTG calls $1.90

River: ($7.05, 2 players)
UTG bets $4.10

Final Pot: $11.15

Crappy spot. Imo you're behind a ton of his range. Calling and folding both suck but folding saves you 4 bucks.

Cooking some numbers on the stove i figure i need slightly better than 4:1 to call.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 17.606% 16.90% 00.70% 72 3.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 82.394% 81.69% 00.70% 348 3.00 { 99+, 55, 22, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 98o }

he's usually donking or raising TT+ pre or on the flop which is pretty much what we beat so i think its a fold. Also I think that people running 66/12 are more loose passive stations than loose aggressive maniacs.

What do you think of how i played the hand on each street (bet sizing etc)? I think my turn bet is small, but at the time i was thinking "keep it small, keep him in the pot". I had seen him c/c OOP down to the river with high card.

I think your turn bet size should be more like 3/4 pot to pot sized. Especially with so many flush draws in villains range.

You should not be thinking "keep it small, keep him in the pot". Your goal is to get better hands to fold, and worse hands to call.

27% equity needed, this is a call imo.

Originally Posted by HoopyDude

27% equity needed, this is a call imo.

Sorry Hoopy, i am slow. How do you get 27%, bet/total pot after I call (4.10/15.25)? What range do you put him on to make this a call. Using the range i posted above i figure i only have 17% equity. If we removed TT+ from that range, as suggested by Imthenewfish, we are dead in the water.

The range you put him on seems crazy to me. How does he limp/call Q9o from under the gun? It just seems you added any hand you could find that beat you.

Originally Posted by Openside

Sorry Hoopy, i am slow. How do you get 27%, bet/total pot after I call (4.10/15.25)? What range do you put him on to make this a call. Using the range i posted above i figure i only have 17% equity. If we removed TT+ from that range, as suggested by Imthenewfish, we are dead in the water.

Yes, 4.10/(4.10+11.15)=~27%

FWIW I don't think this is a call. I definitely think that your range is too tight being that he is a 66/12; he is a station. However, I don't think you can add enough to give you 27% equity.

Originally Posted by DanAronG

The range you put him on seems crazy to me. How does he limp/call Q9o from under the gun? It just seems you added any hand you could find that beat you.

Ok. Im a rookie. I freely admit my ranges are probably out to lunch. Could you help me out though, please. Your post doesnt explain much. In the OP i stated the range i put him on preflop "any broadway, Ax, 22+". Then after the river and he shoves i posted a modified range that i thought would match how he played the hand. On the turn i still thought i was miles ahead based upon his previous hands and hence wanted him calling. Obviously i havent "added any hand you could find that beat you" or 92o+ would be in there. The villain limp calling Q9+ preflop seems perfectly possible to me, he is a station. Why cant i put him on Q9o? Why cant i put him on this range after he shoves? What range would you put him on? My reasoning for this range is that anything else is basically a stone cold bluff. Do you really think he is good enough to float me on the flop and turn to make a move on the river with air? I dont think he is, hence the range i stated. An AF of 2 and AFQ of 45 suggest to me he doesnt bluff that much, he just calls too much.

Originally Posted by bhaley66

I definitely think that your range is too tight being that he is a 66/12; he is a station.

Haha. There is a consensus forming here. Does a station shove on the river with say mid pp? My reasoning was that he would just c/c the river with pp. I thought the shove represented a slow play.

Originally Posted by Openside

Sorry Hoopy, i am slow. How do you get 27%, bet/total pot after I call (4.10/15.25)? What range do you put him on to make this a call. Using the range i posted above i figure i only have 17% equity. If we removed TT+ from that range, as suggested by Imthenewfish, we are dead in the water.

Bet/(Bet+Pot) gives us the equity we need, so 4.1/(4.1+7.05) = 27% or so.

As for the range we can take almost all pocket pairs out because of your reads, but his range is basically super wide pre flop. On the flop his continuing range is mainly 5x, 9x and all sorts of overcards and he sounds like the type who likes to slow play his big hands. Turn will often give him a pair or a flush draw, we have the Ks though which is a blocker to some of his overcard combo's.

River betting range is 98o+, 95s+, JT, QJ, KJ, and 11 combo's of backdoor flushes which we have 34% against, that's not including any spaz outs either.

Ah sorry dude, didn't see your stats on him, scrolled straight down to the easier to read version of your post.

So, now having read it, I will attempt to actually be helpful rather than just troll:

If you can claim he is as loose as follows then it's an easy call:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

Board: 5d 9s 9c Js 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.637% 54.64% 00.00% 6489691 0.00 { 55, A9s, A5s, KJs, K9s, K5s, QJs, QsTs, Q9s, J9s+, J5s, T9s, 96s+, 8s7s, 7s6s, A9o, A5o, KJo, K9o, K5o, QJo, Q9o, J9o+, T9o, 97o+ }
Hand 1: 45.363% 45.37% 00.00% 5388156 0.00 { KhKs }


But perhaps that's being a bit too optimistic, but you could give him as tight a range as follows and still profitaqbly call:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

87 games 0.005 secs 17,400 games/sec

Board: 5d 9s 9c Js 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.667% 66.67% 00.00% 58 0.00 { 55, A9s, A5s, KJs, K9s, QJs, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 96s+, 8s7s, 7s6s, A9o, A5o, KJo, K9o, QJo, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 97o+ }
Hand 1: 33.333% 33.33% 00.00% 29 0.00 { KhKs }


Efectively, if A5 & KJ & QJ are still in there then you can call. With a read like you have I think they quite possibly are, so I think you can call, but it's not an awful fold. Remove those hands and you can't profitably call.

But bare in mind I'm quite shite so see what better players say.

(I'm such a pussy throwing that caveat out)