KK how to proceed

Villain is pretty solid running 18/10 over 364 hands. Pretty much an ABC player for what I have seen. Filimon is pretty tight as well 15/10 other than that not much really sticks out.


$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG filimon1983 ($2.14)
UTG+1 Hero ($5.16)
MP1 Gret9 ($5.31)
MP2 Just_a_G@me ($12.28)
CO Isbud ($7.77)
BTN FRIZZO1234 ($1.55)
SB keshleen ($5.02)
BB Zauberhase91 ($4.51)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 8 players) Hero is UTG+1

Pre-flop I put both on similar ranges like {22+,A6s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KQo}

filimon1983 raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.46, 2 folds, Isbud calls $0.46, 3 folds, filimon1983 calls $0.31

Flop: ($1.45, 3 players)

Flops kinda meh really so I decide a decent sized bet to make them pay for draws.

filimon1983 checks, Hero bets $1.35, Isbud calls $1.35, filimon1983 folds

So with the call obviously we need to narrow this range down. This is what I come up with {TT,66,ATs+,A6s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KQo}

Turn: ($4.15, 2 players)
Hero ($3.35)?

So to shove or not to shove?


.

Jam looks fine. AJ, KJ, AKhh, QQ, KQhh are never folding.

AhQh, AhKh, Ah6h, TT (discounted on tt board), JJ(discounted on tt board), QQ, KK, KQo, KQs, 66(discounted on tt board), 89s, JT, AJs shove

Looks good. Jam.

And of course with a small made hand on a drawy board, betting the turn is almost mandatory because the draws will call on the turn but not on the river if they miss of course.

Originally Posted by HarleyGuy13

Villain is pretty solid running 18/10 over 364 hands. Pretty much an ABC player for what I have seen. Filimon is pretty tight as well 15/10 other than that not much really sticks out.


Pre-flop I put both on similar ranges like {22+,A6s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KQo}

I think your preflop range (15.5%) is too wide, especially given your reads, for an 15/10 opening UTG.
Villain's range is going to be wider than UTG. Villain is unlikely to pop up with QQ+. I like the way you played this. I agree with shove.

Shove requires 30% (3.35/10.85)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.776% 42.80% 00.98% 25847 589.50 { TT+, 66, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, JTs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 56.224% 55.25% 00.98% 33364 589.50 { KcKs }

Stack off. I think shoving is correct. If he's drawing then you've got him good.

I doubt he has AA since he flat called your 3-bet PF with someone else left to act.

After he flats your flop bet I think you can narrow his range down a bit. I would say QQ-TT,66,AhKh,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h ,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KhQh,7h6h,6h5h. You may be able to discount AKs & KQs since you're holding blockers. Against this range you have 46% equity.

If he has AA or a set and didn't raise the flop, oh well. Get em next time!

your the money left in your stack its def a shove. AA cant be on any, so it could be a set that waited for turn to bet big, but on set i only put 1010 and JJ, 66 had no implied odd pre to call... so you are ahead of most of their range.

shove seems the best thing here.

Shoving the best way to go here.

Originally Posted by Openside

Shove requires 30% (3.35/10.85)

are you sure?

edit: a better question - shoving requires 30% for what?

Looks like you played it well, I'd shove now.

Originally Posted by Openside

I think your preflop range (15.5%) is too wide, especially given your reads, for an 15/10 opening UTG.
Villain's range is going to be wider than UTG. Villain is unlikely to pop up with QQ+. I like the way you played this. I agree with shove.

Shove requires 30% (3.35/10.85)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.776% 42.80% 00.98% 25847 589.50 { TT+, 66, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, JTs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 56.224% 55.25% 00.98% 33364 589.50 { KcKs }

@bold, it sooooo doesn't work like that.

is it just me or is everyone overlooking the fact that this guy is cold calling a 3bet (albeit he is in position), i think you have to discount the AJ/KJ/Ah6h to a certain degree....

as played
Hand 0: 52.436% 49.10% 03.33% 23813176 1616795.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 47.564% 44.23% 03.33% 21450056 1616795.50 { KK-TT, AhKh, AhQh }

shoveaments, ill say all the crap that everyone says the other guy can have (which he will have sometimes just not all the combos of) cancels out the times he has AA here.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

the times he has AA here.

like 0% of the time

Originally Posted by Donachello

like 0% of the time

yea i know i just didnt want anyone to hate on me for not including it...so that makes it more of an ldo shove

Anyone hate bet/folding for like 50 cents here? I just feel like we're getting pwned by TT/66/JJ way more often than getting called off by AK, FDs, etc. :/

I'm thinking more often than not he's going to raise the flop with a set. Of course he might flat hoping that the other player continues, but that seems overly greedy and setting yourself up to get it in bad when one of the draws hits.

So ya I'm not saying he can't have sets here but I think its more likely he raises them on the flop than not.

roid rage did you look at our equity ?

Hand 0: 52.436% 49.10% 03.33% 23813176 1616795.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 47.564% 44.23% 03.33% 21450056 1616795.50 { KK-TT, AhKh, AhQh }

like kfaess said you can even discount the sets more making this even more EV+ , and this is only 2 combos of FD's.....im never folding here

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

@bold, it sooooo doesn't work like that.

Fair enough. Can you explain how it does work? I thought we treated shoving as if we were calling the shove. If we check here and villain shoves we have 30% against the stated range, no?

Is it shoving requires 30% plus FE?

depends on your FE, but if you are doing this for pure value (which i have proven that we can) then you need >50% equity

See if you can figure it out on your own. If you can't, come into IRC and ask the people there and they'll explain it.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

depends on your FE

FE only matters if he's folding something he shouldn't.

Way more hands call the flop than sets. And with the SPR, I don't think I'm ever not jamming the turn. Villains will call with sets but they'll call with draws and top pair as well, obv.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

depends on your FE, but if you are doing this for pure value (which i have proven that we can) then you need >50% equity

We agree, somewhat, in our equity. I calc.d 56% using Harley's range. Im getting lost though in how we relate it to pot size.
How do we calc. Shove equity?
My assumption was shoving equity=calling shove equity.
Better would be shoving equity = calling equity + FE but then we can conclude that
shoving equity is always >= to calling equity
Which leads me back to my initial conclusion that if we needed >30% to call then we needed >30% to shove, which is wrong.

Originally Posted by rpm

are you sure?

edit: a better question - shoving requires 30% for what?

30% to be 0 EV

Originally Posted by Openside

30% to be 0 EV

if you are doing it for pure value then you do not need to worry about anything other than having > 50% equity.....


if it was you calling a bet on the river or calling a shove then your equity would need to be > bet/ (Bet + pot)

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

See if you can figure it out on your own. If you can't, come into IRC and ask the people there and they'll explain it.

Missed this . Will do.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

See if you can figure it out on your own. If you can't, come into IRC and ask the people there and they'll explain it.

Ok i thought about it. I was over thinking how we account for the pot size/bet size in our shove decision.
If we were to call the shove we would need >30% equity. However, we can shove with any equity.
We can shove with <50% equity if our equity + FE > 50%.
Why does a value bet shove require >50% equity. Because by definition a value bet is a bet with the best hand. For us to have the best hand we must have >50% equity.