KK facing river bet

villan is a short stacker 16/14 Agg 4.7 (~300 hands)

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($25)
BB ($30.94)
UTG ($14.07)
Hero ($65.63)
CO ($17.63)
BTN ($28.24)

Dealt to Hero K K

UTG raises to $0.63, Hero raises to $2, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $1.37

FLOP ($4.35) A 8 T

UTG checks, Hero checks

TURN ($4.35) A 8 T 2

UTG bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25

RIVER ($8.85) A 8 T 2 A

[color=red]UTG bets $9.82 (AI), Hero ?

I'll have a go but as with all my advice be aware I'm a noob playing 10nl

UTG raise from 16/14 short stack I'd say 77-AA, AJs+, AQ+, JTs+

Calls a 3bet OOP pre so I'd narrow his range to TT-AA, AQs+, AK+.

Flop check OOP against the aggressor doesn't narrow his range too much. Sets going for c/r, AK and AQ are all still very possible. JJ-KK would almost definitely check this flop too.

Turn bet is tricky, a tad over 1/2 pot could be made with any of his flop range after sensing you're afraid of the A but to me it almost screams for a call. As such I'd discount JJ-KK as there are too many A's in your range for him to completely discount the possibility you have one. I'd be most wary of AA, TT and AK though as I think these are most likely considering how the hand has been played so far. I'd discount AK a bit as I think he would be betting a bit bigger to make you pay for any draws.

River looks like he's filled up a boat to me or at the very least has AK so I'd be folding.

probably raise a little more preflop so post flop is almost a non decision

barf river - unlikely one of these fishies is turning a hand into a bluff

yes i agree 3 bet bigger, i think 2.25-2.50 is better.

does an ace or boat over bet shove here?

seems like if he has Ax/boat he would bet smaller to get a call from PP.

i also somewhat discount AK, (AA) as he buys in for 10, i think short stackers are generally 4 bet shoving pre here, obv still in his range though

His river range is pretty much nuts and air. And your weak postflop line kinda gave him an opportunity to bluff you. I'd rather fold. Why not b/f flop next time?

Man, that is ugly but doubt his range is only nuts or air.
The way this hand played his range is still pretty wide on the river but includes very few hands that we beat.

What was the information that you had that kept you from betting the flop?

Fold turn fold river

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Fold turn fold river

Folding turn doesn't seem right, what makes you think were beat enough to fold?
Especilly with his high AF

Originally Posted by Shotglass

What was the information that you had that kept you from betting the flop?

Not a ton, have seen him c/r a few time and figured he's doing it with any ace that calls my 3 bet, especially sinse I Cbet way to much (leak) and he probably somewhat knows this.

With the A and 10 of out I think there's less chance of FD sinse those are blockers, so figured not a ton worse is going to call here and he's never folding Better.

With his near min raise pre, there are several different things he could be holding, including Ax(which picked up BIG equity on the turn), QQ and so on.
I think that with the possibility of a fd calling us I'd bet like $2.80 to $3.10 on the flop and fold to a shove.

Bet flop because possible FD seems ok, but ax has us crushed anyways and we crush QQ and arn't getting three streets of value anyways. Ax of spades doesn't matter that they picked up FD cause were already only drawing to 2 outs against the ace

Sorry typIng on iPhone not sure if my thoughts came across right

I fold turn because we're only beating bluffs. He's called a 3bet from utg, his range is pretty strong. I just don't see him holding the likes of JTs or QQ nearly enough to make this a +ev call on the turn. We're burning $$.

Originally Posted by fulksy

Sorry typIng on iPhone not sure if my thoughts came across right

your thoughts came across good; mine didn't

As played this is the easiest river fold ever.

Originally Posted by Carroters

As played this is the easiest river fold ever.

+1

TY All, actually thought it was a tough spot, when the ace hits river.

i personally prefer betting the turn than the flop (if we decide we are going to bet one street). and i'm certainly folding the river now.