KK on BU vs fish

i just realised that almost every hand i post on here involves a top pair/overpair type hand facing heat. i guess i have a fair bit of trouble in such spots.

main villain here is a fish. 47/3/0 (3bet) over 130 whom i have a note on which reads "limps and call far too wide preflop" (pretty pointless note given stats i know) and "minraise top and bottom pair IP on flop". im guessing he is capable of having any pair here, as well as lots of suited broadways and some pretty offsuit ones, like KQo etc.

the BB caller is 20/15 over only 71 with a 11% 3bet (small sample, almost irrelevant) given we are deep, he is OOP, there's a fish in the pot, and that he's likely on OK player, he is 4betting AA almost all the time here i think. so his range is like 99-KK, AK. when he leads flop i'm confident he only has 99-QQ, AsKs.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($23.07)
SB ($12.41)
BB ($25.18)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($27.62)
MP1 ($27.75)
MP2 ($5.04)
MP3 ($26.63)
Hero (CO) ($23.30)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.30, MP1 calls $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.20, 2 folds, BB calls $1.10, UTG+1 calls $0.90, MP1 calls $0.90
Flop: ($5.03) 5, 6, 2 (4 players)
BB bets $3.15, 1 fold, MP1 raises to $7.60, Hero calls $7.60, BB calls $4.45
Turn: ($27.83) 3 (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets $18.93 (All-In), Hero?


i'm now going to attempt a kiwi-style street-by-street analysis because if i did this more thoroughly during the play of hands i'd win far more money

flop:
i really feel BB only has 99-QQ, as mentioned. i doubt he's going to be setmining much here even though we're deep because it's a 3bet pot and he's on da BB. because the fish is so passive pre, i think he still has all pairs which are a set or overpair in his range, although i'm starting to think that, being so passive, it should be weighted towards sets and the stronger overpairs, so we'll say all sets, and TT-KK

turn:
BB checks which i expect him to do with all of the range i assigned him on the flop, because he's OOP 3way in a bloated pot with one of 99-QQ. the tard shoves into what is, i'll admit, a far more bloated pot than i anticipated when calling his flop raise. at the time i pretty much assigned him the same range as the flop because he's terrible at poker and isn't thinking about our ranges. however i think, given how passive he is, his range is stronger than i thought.

i want to know what you guys do on the flop and turn.

I think I just fold flop. I also 3bet bigger pre because of MP1. I think the range you gave BB is a bit off as I do for sure think he'd set mine here and you forgot AsKs in your flop analysis.

I also assume MP1's postflop tendencies to change somewhat in a 3bet, 3way pot than in a normal pot but maybe not.

I could be way off of course.

We should probably make our commitment decision before we put any money in on the flop. If you aren't willing to go allin facing an inevitable turn bet, you shouldn't coldcall the flop 2bet multiway. Kmind covered it well.

Originally Posted by kmind

I also assume MP1's postflop tendencies to change somewhat in a 3bet, 3way pot than in a normal pot but maybe not.

do you mean preflop or postflop? if you mean pre, everything he is limping he is not folding to a 3bet, or so it seems. he showed down an MP 38s soon after where UTG raised, he calls, BU 3bets 4x, UTG calls, he calls. if you mean postflop then i've never really thought given much thought to that and it's no doubt one of the many holes in my poker thought process. thanks for pointing it out.

FWIW I too am leaning toward a fold on the flop.

Why do you put his range as wide as KQo on UTG+1 when he has such a high tendancy to limp rather than raise pre?

Originally Posted by rpm

do you mean preflop or postflop? if you mean pre, everything he is limping he is not folding to a 3bet, or so it seems. he showed down an MP 38s soon after where UTG raised, he calls, BU 3bets 4x, UTG calls, he calls. if you mean postflop then i've never really thought given much thought to that and it's no doubt one of the many holes in my poker thought process. thanks for pointing it out.

I did mean postflop sorry about that and I also feel like you're one of the stronger players at 10NL for sure so don't think you have that many leaks at the level. Of course always look to improve though.

because the focus of this hand is on MP1 (who runs 50/2), not UTG+1. i think he still has KQo because anything he limps he doesn't fold to a raise or a 3bet. he actually "defends" his limps way more liberally than i thought in this hand. i learnt this in the 50+ hands after this one. his range is actually wayyyyyyyy wider than pairs and pretty ones.

those who advocate folding flop, what range are we assigning our MP1 raiser?

edit: first bit is directed at fatguy06

Well the only info we have on him is that he's extremely loose and has minraised in the past with 2 pair. The problem is we don't really have a sense as to how many 1 pair hands or draws he has here. Obv 66/55/22, 43, 65, A6, but then how many FDs, SDs, Pair +gutshots. Say he has TPTK or better 2/3rds of the time, and a draw like As4s, 87o, 87s, As4s, AsQs, AsJs as the other 1/3. We have ~21% equity (assuming the other villain has a range of overpairs and sets) vs those hands and 41% vs. the draws, for around 28% total equity, which is not enough to call. I think it's close either way tbh.

edit: I'm rly bad at math and not sure any of that makes any sense.