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KJs in BB @ 10NL FR

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  1. #1
    !Luck's Avatar
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    Default KJs in BB @ 10NL FR

    Main Villain I have no stats on.
    Secondary Villain is 6//12 over 25 hands.

    Since the main villain is in the CO his raising range is likely to be wide 22+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,ATo+,KT o+,QTo+,JTo

    Against this range I have slightly less than 50%(49.1%), which shows that I need to be more careful calling raises in BB from late openers with kjs. So preflop is a small mistake.

    Flop: This is a good flop for me, but I like checking to the preflop aggessor since they tend to bet and then I plan to check raise and take it down. If secondary villian calls it would make my check raise that much better.

    Turn: Boo. With the check it is likely that i can remove any part of his range that hits leaving TT-33,AhKh,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,KhQh,KhTh,Th9h,9h8h,8h7h,7h 6h,6h5hi crush this range so betting is smart. his call really doesn't cahnge his range though makes 66-33 far less likely and 77 less likely. the river is not a card i want to see. Against his total range i have 80.7%, against his calling range which includes all the small flushes and some of the pairs TT,Th9h,9h8h,8h7h,7h6h,6h5h I have 54% equity, but everything else i get reraised and really should fold. So giving the texture I have to check this and all a bigger part of his range to bet me than would call. so betting here is wrong.

    Calling the raise is plan stupid.
    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    SB ($14)
    Hero (BB) ($13.30)
    UTG ($10.15)
    UTG+1 ($1.95)
    MP1 ($5.15)
    MP2 ($5.50)
    CO ($10)
    Button ($1.85)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with K, J
    4 folds, CO bets $0.30, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.20

    Flop: ($0.90) J, J, 2 (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

    Turn: ($0.90) 7 (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $0.90, CO calls $0.90, 1 fold

    River: ($2.70) A (2 players)
    Hero bets $1, CO raises to $4, Hero calls $3

    Total pot: $10.70 | Rake: $0.50

    Comments appreciated

    P.S. 3 am here so this may have worse English than normal.
  2. #2
    inV1NCEble's Avatar
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    PF: fold
    Flop: c/R seems fine
    T: If you bet pot and he calls you're either up against a boat (some people tent to slowplay a FH on a flushy board) or a flushdraw with the FD ofcourse being the most likely. He's not going to call this big of a bet with TT-88 I guess. I wouldn't bet pot, but I guess it's not bad in this spot if his callingrange concist for the most part out of FD's.
    SO=> R: I would c/f unless he bets like really small, but definitely fold here. Betting is indeed very wrong.

    BTW: congrats on winning the m2m thing

    OMG POKERTRACKER IS RIGGED!
  3. #3
    Invincible: After the flop checks through most villains will happily call a psb frequently with 88-TT so your range of only better hands and flush draws is just wrong.

    I think better made hands are pretty unlikely given the flop and turn action, although you do get tards that love to slowplay boats for 2 streets and fail to get any money in.

    I think on the river his calling/continuing range is probably something close to this:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 48.077% 42.31% 05.77% 11 1.50 { KcJc }
    Hand 1: 51.923% 46.15% 05.77% 12 1.50 { 77, 22, A7s, KhQh, KJs, QJs, QhTh, J9s+, Th9h, 9h8h, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

    So bet is almost BE, slightly -EV. Btw, I didn't give him too many flushes here because I think it's pretty unusual for him to not bet the flop with these.

    Since I don't think he bluffs or spazzes this river like ever, I think we have slightly better equity vs his calling range since this can inclue A7 or possibly random floated AK or something every once in a while. So I think a smallish bet, probably just under half pot is good.

    As played, I agree you are likely crushed by his range for raising the river even though your bet was of a gay size. He just doesn't get to the river with any hands that need to bluff and likely wont raise worse trips for value I wouldn't think. Fold.
  4. #4
    inV1NCEble's Avatar
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    @ Carroters: Maybe I'm wrong about TT-88, but it's amazing how many times (even today) I have seen people who seemed good players c/c two streets and bet/shove r with a straight or boat on a drawy board.

    Like I said I obv agree on the bet being -EV

    OMG POKERTRACKER IS RIGGED!
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by inV1NCEble
    PF: fold
    no

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