kings. A high flop turn brings flush draw

only been at the table 5 hands. villain is 40/20 over the 5. should I have taken the free card?

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($9.47)
UTG+1 ($7.41)
MP1 ($10.40)
MP2 ($10.45)
CO ($10.81)
kickass (BTN) ($10)
SB ($15.94)
BB ($10.63)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 8 players) kickass is BTN
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.40, 2 folds, CO calls $0.40, kickass raises to $1.50, 2 folds, UTG+1 folds, CO calls $1.10

Flop: ($3.55, 2 players)
CO checks, kickass checks

Turn: ($3.55, 2 players)
CO checks, kickass bets $1, CO goes all-in $9.31, kickass folds

Final Pot: $13.86

CO wins $13.60 (net +$2.79)

UTG+1 lost $0.40
kickass lost $2.50

I don't mind a turn check or a proper bet but don't bet tiny weak looking fractions of the pot and fold when you get the raise the weak bet deserves.

I don't mind betting here if we think he calls with Qx or 1 club. In which case $2.20 and fold to a shove.

Either bet the flop or check the turn.

I would have a hard time betting this flop for value. Who thinks its a bet and what do we expect them to call with in a 3bet pot? His stats are over too few hands to get any real info from them...

Idk was kind of just speed reading thru a few posts and just threw down some words, so I was definitely being too hasty. Need to learn to take the time to actually read the hh and think through a response.

Mah bad.

But anyways, guy has played 2 out of 5 hands, raising one of them. This would be 3 out of 6, raising 1.

He has less than 75bb.

He flatted a raise IP, then flatted a 3bet OOP.

This means to me, that he is probably bad at this game called Texas Hold Thems.

Range.. ehhh.. prolly like 88-JJ/QQ, AT-AK, KTs, KJ-KQ, 78s-KQs maybe some random suited As? Liiiike... A8s+ say.

If we bet he's folding:
88-JJ (most likely)
KTs (except KcTc)
KJ (except KcJc)
78s-TJs except for FDs.

Hands that beat us that are at least calling:
QQ, AT-AK, A8s+

Hands that we are ahead that are (probably) calling:
KQ, 7c8c-TcJc, QJs, KJ may or may not call, KcTc (other KTs combos may or may not call).

So when we bet, we're getting a fairly large portion of his range to fold. Granted, we're ahead of all of that range, and may get value from 88-JJ on later streets, but probably only one street. Meanwhile, while we're waiting to get our one street of value, we're giving a myriad of other draws an opportunity to hit (FDs, GSSDs, 2 outers, etc).

Yes, the A is a SHITTY card in a 3bet pot w/ KK, but there's no saying he's folding lesser pairs to a bet just because an A is on the board. Seems to me he's a fish and fish do stupid shit all the time. And at the same time, when we bet we're not giving free cards to all that stupid crap that can bink and we'll take the pot down on the flop roughly 50% if not more.

And the times he DOES call, we're still ahead of the FDs, the gutters that 'want to stick around to see the next card' and the 88-JJ that got stubborn, not to mention the random Qs (QJs, KQ, QT(?)) that are likely to show up from time to time. And its not like we cant take the free card ourselves on the turn or river to get to showdown if we don't like what we see later.

/massive poast

Originally Posted by Roid_Rage

massive poast

There are two problems with this reasoning:

1) card removal. We not only have two of the kings, but one of them is the K of clubs, so that removes a TON of combinations of GSSD/FD type hands.

2) From a theoretical standpoint, we're not actually forcing him to make that big of a mistake by c/c'ing the flop with draws if we're only going to check the turn anyway. This is especially true of FD's where he's ~31% to win the hand if he goes all the way to the river, and we're probably going to be giving him at worst those odds.

We actually force him to make a bigger mistake by waiting to see a safe turn and vbetting that now that he has lower odds. Basically we're treating our own hand like a draw to a value hand and using our position to see a free card; then, once that safe card hits, we're forcing him to make a big mistake either by calling or by folding away his equity.

Of course this spot is a little strange because even now that a flush card hit, we should still bet for value because we have a draw to the nuts plus a split pair vs a likely bad player.

Originally Posted by surviva316

There are two problems with this reasoning:

1) card removal. We not only have two of the kings, but one of them is the K of clubs, so that removes a TON of combinations of GSSD/FD type hands.

2) From a theoretical standpoint, we're not actually forcing him to make that big of a mistake by c/c'ing the flop with draws if we're only going to check the turn anyway. This is especially true of FD's where he's ~31% to win the hand if he goes all the way to the river, and we're probably going to be giving him at worst those odds.

We actually force him to make a bigger mistake by waiting to see a safe turn and vbetting that now that he has lower odds. Basically we're treating our own hand like a draw to a value hand and using our position to see a free card; then, once that safe card hits, we're forcing him to make a big mistake either by calling or by folding away his equity.

Of course this spot is a little strange because even now that a flush card hit, we should still bet for value because we have a draw to the nuts plus a split pair vs a likely bad player.

Solid points, thank you for critiquing.

interesting post; I hope others post their opinions on it. about villain; he posted UTG+1 but he did buy in full. the original raiser that folded was the one with less than 75bb. I still think your right though villain is shaping up to be fisssshhhy.
he cant hold any hands with the Kc cos we has it, I dont think that leaves any flushdraws but QJcc JTcc and maybe QTcc an if we bet these are the only likely hands to call I think and we're not doing great vs them im only 58% vs only them not including any Ax QQ he might have. add in QQ,ATo+ and A8s+ and im down to 14%. vs that continuing range a bet is baaaaad.

I'm just sitting here wondering what the weak ass turn bet was for?

Originally Posted by Huey_Freeman

I'm just sitting here wondering what the weak ass turn bet was for?

my thinking was this, and please berate it all you want; Qx that is in his range would prolly call but might not pay me off if a club river hit. and pp with a club or any clubx really would call to hit the flush. I think its pretty thin but I thought that there was value to be had. I didnt want to bet too much that I would price myself into calling if he shoved.

Originally Posted by kickass

my thinking was this, and please berate it all you want; Qx that is in his range would prolly call but might not pay me off if a club river hit. and pp with a club or any clubx really would call to hit the flush. I think its pretty thin but I thought that there was value to be had. I didnt want to bet too much that I would price myself into calling if he shoved.

There's value to be had imo. I might actually be wrong about that given the fact that the 2nd nut flush draw and the 2nd pair that we're trying to get value form overlap, but my instinct is to lean toward betting here.

The problem is the sizing, especially if you hate life when he raises.

Originally Posted by surviva316

There's value to be had imo. I might actually be wrong about that given the fact that the 2nd nut flush draw and the 2nd pair that we're trying to get value form overlap, but my instinct is to lean toward betting here.

The problem is the sizing, especially if you hate life when he raises.

+1

ok vs a range of QQ-TT, 89s-KQs, ATo+, A8s+, KQo we're 43%

he could still be calling with KJs/KTs if he's sticky w/ a gssd for a card, could also have QTs, mmm.. i put the A8s+ in there just because but id be surprised if he actually showed up with a wider range than ATs+ PF but being conservative etc.

throw in the BS air that we beat and i think betting > checking in this spot since when we check (reiterating this again) he gets to draw for free and can turn whiffs into bluffs a non0% of the time. plus kind of gay to bet the turn when a T, J, or club pops up, giving him either A.) a hand that beats ours that we were ahead of on flop, B.) another chance to bluff w/ air and C.) another chance to bink on river since we'd probly have to check those cards back

I like it

I'd probably check the turn when I pick up equity to be honest just so something like this cannot happen. Can always bet the river anyways. Bet something reasonable if you decide to bet though. Such as $2.

Originally Posted by BlackRain79

Can always bet the river anyways.

Well, obviously, but calling ranges will be different and our equity against that range will be different. I'm not commenting on which would be better, I'm just saying this isn't exactly a spot where all the factors will still be the same on the river so we might as well see how the hand plays out.