JJ vs 3 TAGs prob facing full house

I'm playing at a pretty tight table in this hand against three tags. Villain in SB is 17/14/3.8 & 3bets 8%, a little high; others are similar.

Merge Network $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
Hand History Converter
BB: $2.94
UTG: $4.25
UTG+1: $3.67
MP1: $7.84
MP2: $6.44
Hero (CO): $4.08
BTN: $4.28
SB: $4.27

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is CO with J J
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.16, BTN calls $0.16, SB raises to $0.59, BB calls $0.55, Hero calls $0.43, BTN calls $0.43

First off, do I call preflop w/ all that action? I'm thinking this might get ugly, and w/ these other tight players stacks may be going down w/ PP vs PP.

Flop: ($2.36) 7 4 4 (4 players)
SB bets $1.25, BB folds, Hero calls $1.25, BTN folds

Paired flop makes me think I'm ahead of a lot here. Most AK/AQ type hands missed, medium pairs missed their sets (except for 77, but that's iffy.) The 4's don't scare me. So I call. I'm probably facing 88+ and maybe AsKs who's semi-bluffing (or is that loose?). If that's the case my equity is ~48%.

Turn: ($4.86) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $2.43 all in
Hero???

Turn, he shoves. Looks like he had a PP and now a boat. Question is which one's better. I think I have to call here. But should have have folded the flop? or even folded preflop for that matter vs three TAGs?

imho, this looks like a situation where youre beat. villain 3bet from sb, so hes repping a big hand here, maybe ak/jj+. i dont really see most opps 3betting 88-tt here, or any worse pps.

flop and turn bets seem pretty simple, like hes just trying to get his stack in, which he does efficiently.

the ~1/2 pot bet seems like opp is trying to price in lower pps, or maybe a gutshot, and to build the pot.


i might actually argue for folding pre here, though thats possibly just me being nitty. you dont have the implied odds to call vs a higher pair here, and your call puts you out of position from button opp, who will have better odds to call if you flat sb's rr. also, bb called sb's bet? chances are hes going to have something pretty strong here too.

fold flop

are we getting odds to call when the small blind 3 bets?

Were calling 0.43 the small blind has 3.70 .(forgive errors)

Set mining is close. We've got $3.92 behind, and there's $1.50 in the pot with one person to act behind and two already in. We're calling $0.43. Quick maths... 43 x 14 = 602. So, we need a potential prize of $6.02 to have real set mining odds. When we stack off on flop with sb, and the others fold, we can win $5.42 (excl rake), so strictly speaking we're falling short of the required implied odds, but there's two others in the hand who only need to put in an average of $0.60 more between them to make up the difference. We're probably stacking off more often in this spot when we hit our set, so I suspect we don't need x14 implied odds.

Call pre, fold flop.

Originally Posted by Zorkion

imho, this looks like a situation where youre beat. villain 3bet from sb, so hes repping a big hand here, maybe ak/jj+. i dont really see most opps 3betting 88-tt here, or any worse pps.

I wouldn't normally think a tag 3bets 88-TT, but his 3bet stat is 8%. I think more or less that's like { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+ }. Am I off there?

flop and turn bets seem pretty simple, like hes just trying to get his stack in, which he does efficiently.

the ~1/2 pot bet seems like opp is trying to price in lower pps, or maybe a gutshot, and to build the pot.

Yeah, I agree. I guess there's basically those three PP that are beating me now (AA, QQ, JJ) which = 18 combos. Is that right? Could someone help me with the math here -- what do I do exactly with that number?

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Set mining is close. We've got $3.92 behind, and there's $1.50 in the pot with one person to act behind and two already in. We're calling $0.43. Quick maths... 43 x 14 = 602. So, we need a potential prize of $6.02 to have real set mining odds. When we stack off on flop with sb, and the others fold, we can win $5.42 (excl rake), so strictly speaking we're falling short of the required implied odds, but there's two others in the hand who only need to put in an average of $0.60 more between them to make up the difference. We're probably stacking off more often in this spot when we hit our set, so I suspect we don't need x14 implied odds.

Dumb question: why x 14 here? I always thought set mining required ~5% (or 20x the bet size). Either way, I think my set mine attempt wasn't the right one.

I've been working on the assumption we need around x14 for set mining odds, I can't say I'm correct. To be honest, it's villain and situation dependant. If you have reason to believe you are more likely to stack off when we hit a set, such as four handed in a 3bet pot, you don't need as much as when you're heads up against a solid nit. Just be sure to honestly assess the liklihood of getting stacks in when we hit, and work from there. If villain's range is JJ+ AK, then we're stacking off more often than when villain's range is wider, ie Axs+ 22+ etc. Against a tighter range, I very much doubt we need x20. Maybe we do against wider ranges, but then why are we setmining against a wide range? We should be looking to setmine tight ranges.

I guess what I'm saying is this is a good spot to setmine, because sb's range is tight, and there's two others in the pot, both of whom have plenty of smaller pairs than jacks in their range, and no bigger pairs, giving us bonus implied odds when we both hit a set. We're getting just over x12, but as soon as the other two call the 3bet, we're getting x14 in a 4handed 3bet pot. Good spot.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

If villain's range is JJ+ AK, then we're stacking off more often than when villain's range is wider, ie Axs+ 22+ etc. Against a tighter range, I very much doubt we need x20. Maybe we do against wider ranges, but then why are we setmining against a wide range? We should be looking to setmine tight ranges.

I see what you're saying. But I'm also wondering if set-mining would be effective against fish too -- someone who will stack off by the river because they don't fold enough. So vs. a LAG who knows how to fold mining might not be effective ... but against a 30/5/1.0 station who calls when he hits anything in his wide range is going to call you down when his K8 makes a pair. Would that logic apply as well do you think?

I don't mind calling 3bet multiway pots with high pocket pairs, because if i hit a set, most likely I'm getting payed by someone. As every1 said flop is fold.

EDIT: wouldn't call with smaller PPs to setmine, too vulnerable to set over set.