JJ preflop vs shortstack nit & aggro (nl10)

€0.05/€0.10 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
HERO (€15.62)
UTG+1 (€11.20)
CO (€10.22)
BTN (€2)
SB (€10)
BB (€10.30)

Pre-Flop: (€0.15, 6 players) HERO is UTG
HERO raises to €0.40, 2 folds, BTN goes all-in €2, 1 fold, BB raises to €3.60
Hero ??

shorty is 13/13/5 (83) with 3bet% 7.4 and that other villain plays 26/19/3 (209), 3bet% 11 and steal % 37.
if i shove, am i flipping here in the best case?

BB stats indicate he's not just 3 betting QQ+,AK. He could also being trying to push you out the pot with a hand that does ok vs the SS's shoving range.

BB 3 bet range - A9s+,77+,QJ+,ATo+,KQ
SS range - 66+,ATo+

You have 41% equity here, even though a shove will fold out some of his range I still think it's profitable due to the SB's dead money in the pot

Originally Posted by HoopyDude

BB stats indicate he's not just 3 betting QQ+,AK. He could also being trying to push you out the pot with a hand that does ok vs the SS's shoving range.

BB 3 bet range - A9s+,77+,QJ+,ATo+,KQ
SS range - 66+,ATo+

You have 41% equity here, even though a shove will fold out some of his range I still think it's profitable due to the SB's dead money in the pot

I agree with the range you gave the SSer but i think that the range you gave BB is probably too wide. Also, shoving another 100BB into the pot is most likely going to fold out pretty much everything except 99+, AQ+, maybe KQs since he seems pretty competent imo. Maybe I'm just a nit but I'm rarely if ever stacking off 100BB deep at 10NL with JJ preflop.

I probably fold here and take note of what he is raising with since you will get to see a really cheap showdown.

Originally Posted by HoopyDude

BB 3 bet range - A9s+,77+,QJ+,ATo+,KQ

smack smack smack

You cant just plug a percentage into pokerstove and say "AH HA, so thats his range!". It doesnt work like that. Villain raised out of the bb for one, against an utg raiser and prior 3bettor for 2, hes 4betting for 3, small 3bet% sample size regardless for 4, and maybe some other things.

+1 to folding

Originally Posted by JKDS

smack smack smack

You cant just plug a percentage into pokerstove and say "AH HA, so thats his range!". It doesnt work like that. Villain raised out of the bb for one, against an utg raiser and prior 3bettor for 2, hes 4betting for 3, small 3bet% sample size regardless for 4, and maybe some other things.

+1 to folding

Yeah good points I forgot he's actually 4 betting here + was lazy with pokerstove. Seems like a fold I guess.

I would fold JJ here

What would be your thoughts about shoving QQ or AK in this scenario?

god i'm bad preflop. i have no idea how to think about answering that question ^^
i'm thinking the min-4bettor has a pretty right range here. like QQ+,AK. even though i think it would be a great spot to minraise with something like AQs because it makes it hard to play a huge % of our opening range, and iso's the SS. doubt BB is thinking like that though, hmm. if we are thinking about shoving, AK is obviously a better hand than QQ to do it with because he rarely has JJ, and AK has at least one over to KK. i guess i'd jam KK+,AK here. we're 60/40 against QQ+,AK (off the top of my head), so with the money in the pot and the small chance BB folds i think AK is fine to jam.