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I'm going to take a shot here... please tell me how wrong I am... and take this with a grain of salt... I'm no pro.
PF I like the 4xBB open, looks good. MP2 flats, ok, pot is now let's see, .47, CO calls, ok... so with two thers in, if he has a range it should be about the same as ours in UTG... though at 5nl, you can probably loosen him up a bit. Let's say 22+, KQ, Axs, Ato+, maybe KJ, JQ.
Ok, so of that range (without the maybes), we are in ok shape. flop comes, you lead for 1/2 pot... costing him .30 into a .97 pot, so he needs to make his hand 1/4 of the time to call roughly, but he raises you... leads me to narrow him down to 33, 66, 44, TT+, maybe A6?
I get to this point and have trouble from here... using original range you are still a favorite, around 66%, using modified range though, you are maybe ahead... I got a little liberal with poker stove and still come up with you ahead, but not by as much... sets are definately in his range... overpairs,
I think one more street is well within reason, I think I'm flat calling here and re-evaluating on the turn... also, I think I would have led out higher post-flop, maybe near full pot.
Advice and comments appreciated...
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