J9s Middle pair + Flush draw 4 way

Ignore Preflop.

Assuming this players range is 99,77,QQ, AQ. I have 46% equity if i shove.

What is the best play here. Cause calling is very profitable.


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Range 99,77,AQ. Never bluffing.

Stacks:
UTG Chakal1 ($27.03)
UTG+1 Hero ($25.50)
MP1 rubenrodil ($31.30)
MP2 1mpaler ($15.64)
CO GhosteeR ($43.08)
BTN janito21 ($25)
SB L_Andersson ($24.83)
BB Jan_to_the_w ($21.20)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 8 players) Hero is UTG+1
Chakal1 raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, rubenrodil calls $0.75, 4 folds, Jan_to_the_w calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.10, 4 players)
Jan_to_the_w checks, Chakal1 checks, Hero bets $2.75, 1 fold, Jan_to_the_w folds, Chakal1 raises to $6.50, $3.75 to Hero ($22)?

Board: Qc 7c 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.931% 30.91% 00.02% 2142 1.50 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 69.069% 69.05% 00.02% 4785 1.50 { QQ, 99, 77 }

also itd be nice if you could give us some stats or reads MR. MODERATOR

misclick preflop?

as played call and see the turn IP. jamming is ok too if you think he plays bare flush draws like this.

Stats? Reads on opponents?

Philly,

You missed AQ. The reads are only needed to construct a range. I am saying that this is his range 100% of the time.

is this some theoretical scenario you've constructed then?

Meh I'm not sure. I wish he could have more combos of draws but he can't really besides AcKc. Doubt he plays JT this way but you never know. Next time post stats or I'm locking the thread (I keed I keed)

Wtf are you doing pre?

Originally Posted by Carroters

Wtf are you doing pre?

read comp fail. I said ignore pre.

oh shit, yea i forgot AQ, my b....i'd go ahead and call, if hes not folding any of his raising range then why get it in with 46% equity when you are getting amazing odds on a call.


also what carrots said about pre....you are utg 1????

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

if hes not folding any of his raising range then why get it in with 46% equity when you are getting amazing odds on a call.

agree.

The EV of a shove is $2.20 assuming he never folds (which I assume he isn't here, unless he misclicks).

Calling, we will be able to play absolutely perfect on the turn and river given we know his range 100%. The EV of a call on the flop is $3.66. I'm not very good at poker math, and not sure how to factor in the turn and river streets here. However, I would believe knowing his range 100%, and thus playing mistake free on the turn and river would only add to our EV (if affect it at all).

So I'd say call.

RPM,

That is what I think. So basically if 100% certain that his range consists of sets plus TPTK. Then im far better off calling than shoving.

in my opinion, yes. our opponent's range is strong and there is roughly 1.5PSB behind. so our implied odds are probably pretty good. plus we're in position against a range we can almost play perfectly against.

Originally Posted by !Luck

Ignore Preflop.

why should we do this?

I think shoving is more profitable at this point. Opponent has 0 fold equity now, but may slow down to danger cards killing your profit potential in the future.

Also if you miss on the turn, 3/4ths of the hands in opponents range charge you to see the river 100% of the time, and 1/4 of the hands are dependant upon opponents read of you whether he charges you to see the river.

First I am not so sure if I would bet the flop to start with. Is checking behind horrible here?

As played and taking it as a given that this is his range:

1) if you have no fold equity at all (read: he stacks off with AQ 100% of the time), why shove with only 46% equity (b4 rake)? Note that you don't need very much fold equity to make the play profitable though (take rake into account when you calculate this).

2) you get 23.3% pot odds for a call, and you have 9 flush outs (all clean because you block) and 5 outs to two pairs/trips but these beat him only 9 times out of 16, so count 2.8 outs. Total 11.8 outs for about 21.5% chance to hit on the turn, which is less than your pot odds. Also, when you hit a flush on the turn your implied odds become very limited vs 9/16th of his range and are rather limited vs his sets since he knows (or should now) that he doesn't have many outs to a boat/quads. Furthermore, when you hit two pairs or trips, the turn card is never a club, so villain is likely to lead out with his entire range and you have to raise with 60 or 66% equity vs his range so all the money goes in.

So quick and dirty estimated EV of calling:
0.785*(-$3.75)+0.215*((9/11.8)($12.35)+(2.8/11.8)*(0.63*$27.25+0.37*(-$22))
=-$0.45

So in the end I would say it's a stretch between shoving or calling or folding?