J9 s on button flops flush draw faces raise?

Merge Network $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players -

*EDIT*Dude was 20-17 over 140 hands

UTG: $8.25
UTG+1: $1.32
MP1: $2.54
MP2: $4.40
CO: $2.08
Hero (BTN): $3.95
SB: $7.76
BB: $1.16

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is BTN with 9 J
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.04, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.16, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.38) 2 5 6 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.28, MP2 raises to $2.52, Hero raises??? to $3.79 all in, MP2 calls $1.27

You guys normally getting this in here? I mean this is what we were hoping for when we raised pre right? Or am burning money again?? Thank you guys for all your help

Naw, you can fold this flop. Villain is telling you 'I have a big fucking hand!' and isn't giving you odds to come along when he raises. Best case you're up against a better fd.

*edit* reads would help here but he'd have to have a lot of crap in his range here to continue.

why did you 3bet AI flop?what were your reasons for doing that?

You need the pot to be paying you about 2:1 to break even calling flush draws all day long, assuming your flush always wins when you hit it.

This pot was only paying you about even money, since you had no fold equity at the point you shoved over his raise, and there wasn't much in the pot to start with, so for all practical purposes you were getting paid 1:1 odds. Not near enough to call a flush draw, especially one which may not be the best flush.

Fold here every time the pot is not more than twice what you have to call to see 2 cards. Remember also that if it's not a shove, you will have to pay again at the turn to see the river unless you hit the turn. 2:1 odds are needed with 2 cards still to come, with one card you need about 4:1

By the way, and I am not adding this to encourage loose calling, but the fact you had 2 overcards to the board _may_ have given you better opportunities to win the hand since you can also hit those, but they must be live cards - ie. your opponent doesn't either have better overcards, a better pair than your overcards or a hand that dominates your overcards by having one of them with a better kicker.

AKs here for example with the flush draw is a marginal call maybe, since you have a 54% chance to hit either the flush or an A or K by the river.

Originally Posted by supa

Naw, you can fold this flop. Villain is telling you 'I have a big fucking hand!' and isn't giving you odds to come along when he raises. Best case you're up against a better fd.

Being up against a better fd is one of the worst cases. Being up against something like 77-88 is the best case.

That said still an easy fold v the monster c/r.

Also, when you decided to 3bet, what was your plan if he 4bet pre-?

After you get check-raised, it's a relatively easy fold. You're only ahead of complete air, your flush draw has to call 1.86 to win 3.18 so you don't have pot odds, your flush doesn't have to be good even if you hit it, and since you only have 1.27 more into a pot that would be 4.45, shoving has little fold equity which contributes to it quite likely having a substantial -EV.

Originally Posted by Arjonius

Also, when you decided to 3bet, what was your plan if he 4bet pre-?

After you get check-raised, it's a relatively easy fold. You're only ahead of complete air, your flush draw has to call 1.86 to win 3.18 so you don't have pot odds, your flush doesn't have to be good even if you hit it, and since you only have 1.27 more into a pot that would be 4.45, shoving has little fold equity which contributes to it quite likely having a substantial -EV.

We raised pre, not 3b.

I think raising pre is ok, his limp is usually a weak hand like a small pair or 2 gapper suited connector type bs. Unless he limps big overpairs and does things like this on the flop which wouldnt surprise me. 20-17 tho tells me he prob. Raises his premiums and open limps/flat calls ipwith s.c. And small pp type hands. I highly doubt he has 77-88 here, my assumption is a set, 2pr, or the nut str8. As played I fold to check raise as our overcards are never good in this spot. We have a naked flush where all our outs might not even be clean.

20-17 tells me he should never be open limping, as the 3% gap would almost always come from calling PFRs, so I'm not sure how this villain is open limping at all, but it's probably always 22-66 and lower SCs if I had to give a range for this bizarre case. Kinda think it's more likely that OP didn't get villain's stats correctly tho.

Ok seems I made a horrible decision again lol. But for shits and giggles lets say on this flop he checked and then minraised my bet. Would me shoving be + EV? I guess flatting that minraise would be a bad bad play? How do you guys narrow a range when someone check raises or is that possible? B/c when check raises to me it seems to widen their range? I hope my gibberish is understandable.

Originally Posted by gotigers1234

Ok seems I made a horrible decision again lol. But for shits and giggles lets say on this flop he checked and then minraised my bet. Would me shoving be + EV? I guess flatting that minraise would be a bad bad play? How do you guys narrow a range when someone check raises or is that possible? B/c when check raises to me it seems to widen their range? I hope my gibberish is understandable.

If the flop pot was $0.38 and you bet $0.28 into it, then he minraises back. you'd have a $0.92 pot with you having $3.51 behind.

Shoving here means you're risking $3.51 to win $0.92

Think about that for a minute. If we had some sort of bet on like a dog race, and I offered you odds such that if you bet $3.51 on a dog and you won I'd pay you $0.92 (plus your original wager back of course), how sure would you have to be that dog would win? Very fucking sure.

So, assuming he's ahead, and that you have to improve and hit your flush to beat him, and if you do hit your flush you'll definitely win, then you will lose $3.51 65% of the time when you don't hit the flush, and win $4.43 (the original pot and his call) 35% of the time when you do hit, meaning an EV of (0.35*4.43)-(0.65*3.51) = 1.55-2.28 = -$0.73 so each time you make this play you lose $0.73

If you think he'll fold to a push some proportion of the time, then you have fold equity of the pot times the probability of him folding.

How often does he have to fold to break even here?

Let Pcall = probability he calls, Pfold = probability he folds

Well if you lose 0.73 on average each time he calls then you lose 0.73*Pcall, and you want that to equal 0.92*Pfold (the 92c you win times the probability he folds so you do win it)

Pfold+Pcall=1, so Pfold=(1-Pcall)

So 0.73*Pcall=0.92*(1-Pcall)

=> 0.73*Pcall=0.92-0.92*Pcall

Divide through by Pcall

0.73=(0.92/Pcall) - 0.92

So 1.65=0.92/Pcall -> Pcall=0.92/1.65 = 0.55

So he must call no more than 55% of the time. After raising.

Don't overcommit in small pots.


Considering the option to call his hypothetical minraise of $0.28 into a $0.92 pot, you'd have pot odds of 94 to 28, which is 3.4:1, assuming you thought you could see both turn and river for that bet without paying any more on the turn, you could call that with good odds, since you need odds of 2:1 and you're getting 3.4:1

You won't see the river without paying though, and the odds you hit your card on the turn to make your flush are 4:1 or so, so you're not getting enough odds to call.

Read: Poker Pot Odds | Using Pot Odds In Poker

Google "odds and outs" and learn how you can decide whether a call is a profitable one or not.

Explain why you think that them C/Ring the flop widens their range? Perhaps we can get to the bottom of what you've misunderstood here.

And if I catch you chasing a draw all in without odds to do so again, I will bumhunt you!

The dog race example is pretty wrong. If you say your dog is really old and has a risk of heart attack 40% of the time on top of the odds we have of winning in the first place then it makes sense.

pre-flop good
flop c-bet fine
clear fold vs the check-raise

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Being up against a better fd is one of the worst cases. Being up against something like 77-88 is the best case.

That said still an easy fold v the monster c/r.

Without reads I'm assuming 77-88 isn't here and we're really only up against worst case scenarios. I was thinking if we're up against a better fd we still have live cards but I guess we're doing better vs sets so... yeah.

/stupid explanation.

You have 9 outs (at best, you probably don't have clubs that pair the board) in a deck of 45, meaning htting the turn is a 1 in 5 shot, if we miss turn hitting river is very slightly better odds as there's one less non-club in the deck. So you have just about a 2 in 5 chance (at best) of winning this pot going all in over his flop raise. He's never folding after betting this much, so fold equity is precisely zero.

Now play the hand 20 times. We win 8 times and lose 12. Who wins the most money? You or villain?

Laugh at his ridiculous raise and fold, not even close.

No Fold equity and mediocre equity at best vs his range = fold

flop is an easy fold because of his ridiculous size. all the rest looks good. do yourself a favour and learn about pot odds and these spots will become very black/white