IRC Poker Quiz Thread

[spoonitnow]

spoonitnow: Okay I'll do a serious poker quiz
Illfavor: k thx
spoonitnow: At a 9-handed table with 100bb effective stacks, a 7/6 opens 4x UTG+1 and he has a 92% fold to 3-bet stat and a 55% fold steal to 3-bet stat over a very large sample. It folds to you with A2s otb. Describe the EV of a 3-bet to 12x assuming both blinds are 14/11 slightly-too-tight typical low stakes FR regulars.
spoonitnow: Actually let's make this a thread so I can go to bed

Edit: spoonitnow: Assume his attempt to steal is 15

[Illfavor]

Villain is opening UTG so i'll give him a range of AKo+, TT+. His range is 27 combinations of pps, and 12 combinations of unpaired hands. He folds extremely often to 3bets when in EP, so I'll say he's folding everything but KK+ to 3bets. His range folded to 3bets is 9 pp combos.

9/39= 23% or 77% FE when we 3bet w/A2s. His fold to 3bet stat kinda suggests he doesn't even call w/KK here, or also that he opens a somewhat wider range than I have listed, but is still folding all but KK+.

If he opens 4x there's 5.5BB in the pot, and we 3bet to 12, needed him to fold (12/17.5) 69% of the time to BE, which he will. The blinds are tight and fold a whole bunch so they're not too much of a concern, and also the UTG range is made up mostly of blockers to the blinds probably continuing range.

preflop EV:
put in $12 to win $5.5
blinds have 3 combos of AA, and 6 combos of KK
that's a total combined chance of 1% of them coming back over the top
less than 1.3% because UTG+1 has a good chance to have an ace or a king blocker
since UTG+1 is somewhat positionally aware (15% steal) he's only opening like 5% UTG+1 (I did 5% in pokerstove, took out ace of diamonds, got 4.3%, then just left the aces without ace of diamonds and got 0.2%)

since he's opening so tight he has to be folding KK to a 3b for him to be ABLE to have a 92% fold to a 3b
so he's probably calling 20% of the time in this situation (his 92% fold comes from situations like raising from MP where his range is wider)

we're going to assume he 4bs every time he has aces
we win $5.5 79% of the time, we lose $12 21% of the time (1% cold 4b from both of the blinds)

4.345 - 2.52 =~ 1.8bb every time we 3b

[spoonitnow]

What about the times someone in the blinds 4-bets?

What about the times someone in the blinds 4-bets?

I dealt with that, that should only happen 1% of the time which I added to my 20% that the original raiser shoves it in

but in fact it matters more what range the original raiser opens, because if he opens one more/less hand than I assumed then that's like 0.5% difference already in our fold equity if it's a pp and 1% if it's not

[spoonitnow]

I was talking to the other fish.

[VYKevin]

Hello all, this is my first post here, just getting familiar with the place!

[daviddem]

Hello all, this is my first post here, just getting familiar with the place!

in b4 noob gets shafted for polluting spoon's thread and posting his intro (sort of) in the worse possible place

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...re-136220.html