Interesting situation leads to a question about strategy

This is a 50 NL 6-max hand history from Party:

***** Hand History for Game 4543496146 *****
$50 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, June 18, 12:14:32 ET 2006
Table Table 109777 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: stressball10 ( $76.65 )
Seat 4: JimBeamJr ( $43.70 )
Seat 6: gmisk ( $16.68 )
Seat 2: FrabjousDay ( $50.05 )
stressball10 posts small blind [$0.25].
FrabjousDay posts big blind [$0.50].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to stressball10 [ 7s 8h ]
JimBeamJr folds.
dtrub has joined the table.
>You have options at Table 109783 Table!.
gmisk calls [$0.50].
stressball10 calls [$0.25].
FrabjousDay checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3d, Th, 6d ]
stressball10 checks.
FrabjousDay checks.
gmisk bets [$0.50].
stressball10 calls [$0.50].
FrabjousDay calls [$0.50].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9s ]
DarnSkippy06 has joined the table.
stressball10 bets [$1.25].
FrabjousDay raises [$5.50].
gmisk folds.
....

FrabjousDay is a very solid player from what I can tell. After this action the hand I suspect he has is 78 for a split. I think he would have led with a hand like T9 and probably even 69 since gmisk is a weak, bad player and there's little reason to check a pair after I checked already. 93 is an outside possibility. Given the flush draw and straight draw that are out there I don't think he would slowplay a flopped monster. Basically I think it's 75% likely he just made the same straight I did, and this is a pure value raise with the nuts. I hope I'm not freerolling 7d8d, but again I think would have bet that on the flop.

So - given that I believe we are probably splitting, it occurred to me after the hand that I might have done better to flat-call his raise and see if I could take advantage of a scare card on the river to steal the pot from him. Any diamond or pair to the board would be perfect for a large bet, and an unlikely 8 coming off might make him nervous too.

In reality I made the standard play - reraised to $15 and called his push - but what do you think of the non-standard possibilities? I think this would only apply with this kind of situation where I had a good read and a cooperative board that made it pretty clear what he was likely to have.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

I think he would have led with a hand like T9 and probably even 69 .

Why would he have led with 69?

That kind of exact read is almost impossible on this level.

[quote="majorj"]

Originally Posted by dalecooper

Why would he have led with 69?

Because he's a solid player and flopped middle pair with no one acting after him but a grade-A fish, and the only other person in the hand is another solid player in the small blind who just checked. And I didn't say he would definitely bet there with 69 - I just felt it was *likely* he would have bet with that hand. I think the range of hands that he would probably check/call the flop but then put in a healthy raise on the turn is small, and I think a lot of those hands are 78.

That kind of exact read is almost impossible on this level.

Yes. It's an educated guess, not an exact read.

The problem here is you can't be that sure he has the straight. you say 75%...i think the reality is much less likely than that. for a start the sb and bb both being dealt 78 is pretty unlikely, and there must be alot of hands he would play the same way. even if he had the straight in this situation, alot of times he won't

his raise on the turn looks like he's protecting something - it's a big raise. this could be with a set to make you pay for drawing. in the blind he could have flopped a junky 2 pair like 10-6 (and even with pt you can't be sure how he'd play it), or he might have turned some kind of mega-draw/pair combination.

your flat call on the turn that might seem oh-so sophisticated might in fact (more than half the time i'm guessing) be letting him draw cheaply for filling up, or making his flush/straight.

it would be different if you had a str8 with one of your cards, say u had k-8 in sb board was 9-7-6-10, and you are faced with a strong reraise on the turn from a tight player..it's pretty likely he's got the straight, so flat call is ok here, and push the river if the board pairs.

but in future - you can't be so specific in your reads, alot of people mix up their play and might play a flush draw as they would top set as they would ace high on a bluff