there is a big difference between instinctively "knowing" that a certain card is going to come and relying on that, and instinctively "knowing" that your opponent is full of shit. The former is guessing, and is not going to be any better than chance. Using this will lead to long term losing decisions.

the reason you say sometimes it's on, and sometimes it's not is you are guessing, and sometimes you will guess right. Then there is something called the confirmation bias, where we remember those instances where we were right, but tend to forget the ones where we were wrong, thereby leading us to believe that we are correct more often than we are. again, a surefire way to lose.

you did not "know" that a 4 was going to come, when the 4 came you decided that you knew it was coming. Even if before it came, you said that the 4 was coming, it doesn't mean you knew. Most of the time, when the 4 doesn't come, you just forget the whole episode.