I never said it's impossible for him to have a 12% PFR from UTG+1. I said it's extremely likely that a 14/12 is positionally aware (even if he is following a hand chart). As such, it is incredibly unlikely that his PFR range is the same from all positions. Which is fine, plenty of ranges can average to 12%. Here, HJ is one of the tighter spots. So if he's PFR-ing 12% from HJ, then what is he PFR-ing from other positions that averages out to 12%, AND isn't the same from all pos?

There are, of course, an uncountably infinite number of answers to this question, and some of them make sense for some players. I doubt that any of them make sense for a 14/12.

I think dtc asked some great questions in the first paragraph.

Most notably: Does Hero have any indication that Villain has noticed and is capable of adjusting to the fish UTG?
If not, then all this talk about Villain's ISO range is moot, at least deserving the caviat: IF villain is ISO-ing, then { range }