Idea - Hand-Reading Homework

OK, so me and Seven-Deuce have been talking w/ Spoon in IRC about hand-reading skills and how to get better, and i thought it'd be a good idea to have a regular(ish) thread w/ a hand example for everyone to have a go at, so we can all get told what retards we are by Spoon, yaawn, et al.

Sounds fun, right?

So to get the ball rolling, here's Example 1.

We're interested in Villain's range on each street; Hero's actions are what they are.

If i've not supplied enough info on the hand, then let me know; i am - after all - a BC Moran.

Hopefully, a lot of us will get something out of this and keep it going by providing other example hands.

If not, then screw you guys; i'm going home.

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($10.91) 109bb - VPIP: 54, PFR: 23, 3B: 25, AF: 0.7
Villain ($20.54) 205bb - VPIP:14, PFR:12, 3B:5, AF:1.6, cBet:49
CO ($10.15) 102bb
Hero (BTN) ($11.83) 118bb - VPIP:21, PFR:19, 3B:8, AF:5.4
SB ($9.65) 97bb
BB ($10) 100bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is BTN
UTG calls $0.10, Villain raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.35, 3 players)
UTG checks, Villain checks, Hero bets $0.90, UTG folds, Villain calls $0.90

Turn: ($3.15, 2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $2, Villain calls $2

River: ($7.15, 2 players)
Villain bets $17.24

My go at it:

Pre: Villain Iso's w/ {88+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, AJo+, KQo}

OTF: I think he'd c/r with Sets and Overpairs on such a wet board, so i put him on {99, ATs, A6s, KTs, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, AhQh, Ah9h, Ah7h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h}

OTT: When the FD completes, i can't see him c/calling with anything but a made Flush {AhQh, AhTh, QhTh, Ah9h, Qh9h, Th9h, Ah7h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h}

OTR: Shoving w/ all the AhXh; probably all the rest too.

Reads? Stats? Lack thereof?

And IRC just means the FTR Chat Room (see the first link in my signature) for those who don't know.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Stats?

...are in the OP

has played draws aggressively OTF

Pretty awful but villain is nitty and 4flush board so exploitative fold

Meh dude's a 14/12. He doesn't iso anywhere near that wide. With 50% cb I'm guessing he here his pairs + and his good draws. It's a 3way flop so you.can't discount them hands just because he didn't cb. villain has maybe a set or AQ hearts.

Although villain is 14/12, because he is isolating a fish, would I be right to say he is probably raising a little wider than 12% ? I know I would want to play lots of pots against that UTG opponent.

Pre: { 66+,A9s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo }, which is 14%. I'm not 100% sure on this. Which do you think this type of villain values more for isolating, something like QJo, 66, 87s, or A5s? I ask because DoubleJ included A5s and 87s but not QJo or 66.

Flop: Villain's action on the flop confuses me. If you have the read that he "plays draws aggressively on the flop," then what does it mean when he passes up the opportunity to cbet and check/calls instead? Wouldn't this be the kind of board to bet (or c/r) a hand like AhQh--two overs and the nut flush draw? [Edit: Or does the 3-way flop explain the more passive/tentative line?]

By the river: Are there enough Q-high flushes (and maybe even some stray sets) in villain's range to ever make this a call for hero?

Originally Posted by rong

Meh dude's a 14/12. He doesn't iso anywhere near that wide. With 50% cb I'm guessing he here his pairs + and his good draws. It's a 3way flop so you.can't discount them hands just because he didn't cb. villain has maybe a set or AQ hearts.

This, especially the bold.

Your range, DoubleJ, is 14% on a PFR from HJ. Assuming his PFR is wider, or at least as wide, on CO and BTN (probably BB, too, 'cause it's not beyond a 14/12 to re-steal), there's going to be big signs of how that resolves into a 12% overall PFR. E.g. he's noticeably tighter with PFR's from SB,BB,UTG than he is from HJ, CO,BTN (which are nearly indistinguishable from each other).

It's fair to assume a 14/12 is positionally aware. The tightest seat at the table for PFR's is UTG+1 (DUCY), which is HJ when 6-handed.

So his PFR range is probably tighter than 12%, not wider.

I like this better, PRE:
{ 66+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+ }
but there's a bunch of maybe's on low PP and hands like QTs,KTs,AJo,KQo as to if he maybe includes them sometimes. Surely there are hands that he "maybe PFR's sometimes" with.

I don't see any post-flop stats, except AF, which makes no sense to me. I don't know how to continue without knowing something about Villain.

I mean: it's unlikely that he c/c OTF with AJo+..
or KJs+ or QJs (diamonds/non-diamonds)...
or sets...
but maybe he's the kind to c/c with 2 overs on wet boards, or slow plays big hands in 3-way pots when he shouldn't.

Because the board is not paired and there are only 3 hearts, the only hand combos that beat hero are 7h4h, 9h7h, and AhXh (where X can't be 5, 6, 8, J, or K). I doubt this villain isolates with 7h4h or 9h7h. Even Ah2h-Ah9h are questionable.

So villain wins with AhQh, AhTh, and maybe Ah9h, Ah7h, Ah4h, Ah3h, and Ah2h.

But what would he do this with that hero beats?
QhTh. Maybe Qh9h and Th9h. Maybe sets. Maybe some pure bluffs.

If I were the hero, at game speed I would certainly call river (I don't think I could ever fold a K-high flush on a non-paired, only 3-heart board). Taking the time to look at it, I guess it depends on whether villain would do this with anything worse than QhTh. It only takes a few more hand combos to make hero's call profitable.

Also, MadMojoMonkey, you don't think villain would widen his preflop range for the purposes of isolating a fish?

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

(DUCY)

no

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I don't see any post-flop stats, except AF, which makes no sense to me.

cBet is in there; tell me wot else we need...

Originally Posted by Malbrack

Also, MadMojoMonkey, you don't think villain would widen his preflop range for the purposes of isolating a fish?

If he's opening around 8% from that position usually (just a guess), he isn't going to be isolating a huge amount wider.

OTT: When the FD completes, i can't see him c/calling with anything but a made Flush {AhQh, AhTh, QhTh, Ah9h, Qh9h, Th9h, Ah7h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h}

That is far too tight imo, I'd add in sets and overpairs. However, I don't think villain is isolating as wide as A7-2h tbh. I'm not completely sold on Th9h and Qh9h either, seems too loose.

66, 88, TT+, AT, KT, QT.

Would be more along the lines of what I'd put him on.

Rivarssss: 66, 88, TT, J9, Ah7h, ah9h, ahqh, AhTx, AhQx, AhKx.

Pre I have him at like, 66+, A5s+, A9o+, random broadways and some sc's. I dropped a bunch that didnt make sense to c/c with two streets to get the river range. AhTH i dont have there because its freakin bizzare to c/c two streets with it here.

I thinks its goot. He bluffn, i call!

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

The tightest seat at the table for PFR's is UTG+1 (DUCY)

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

no

Well, I meant "opening a limped pot", not PFR, does that help?
Clearly, the tightest pos for PFR is UTG. There is the least available info.
Same for the open a limped pot scenario that you failed to read my mind to understand.

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

cBet is in there; tell me wot else we need...

It'd be nice to know if Hero has any notes on how this villain plays 3-handed pots.

It'd be nice to know how wide this villain will c/c on wet boards.
If Villain has been known to float Hero with 2 overs + BDFD and/or low pair + gutshot type hands...
If he C-bets 49%, then what is left to c/c? I smell a rat with this line from this villain, a big, polarized rat.

It'd be nice to know if you've got any notes on him showing down when flopping a nutted hand ('cause c/c ; c/c ; donk jam screams "I flopped the world").

Originally Posted by kickass

Pretty awful but villain is nitty and 4flush board so exploitative fold

Not four flush board.

Your turn sizing to me doesn't look too flushy, so I'm not finding a fold on this river. His line is very strange though.

Drunkard!!

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

Villain ($20.54) 205bb - VPIP:14, PFR:12, 3B:5, AF:1.6, cBet:49

Judging from this guy's stats he seems like the typical tight multi-tabling regs that have some idea of what they are doing.

For his preflop iso'ing range i think it would look something like this;

{ 22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo }

After villain checks the flop on that board i'm going to remove all overpairs as i can't imagine he'd check them here in a 3-way pot with flush and straight-draws out there.

So his range on the flop is;

{ TcTh,TcTs,ThTs,9c9h,9d9h,9h9s,8d8s,6d6s,ATs }

Just noticing how strong this range is, it's basically sets and TPTK with a pair and a gutshot. I don't think his checking range is likely to ever be this strong in a 3-way pot with a lot of draws on board. That would mean his betting range is 4 combos of sets and JJ+, and his check-folding range would be all missed PP's and broadways. Except for AQhh with the FD. Which i'll include in the c/c range here.


So his turn range is basically the exact same except he probably folds 99 so his turn range is;

{ TcTh,TcTs,ThTs,8d8s,6d6s,AhQh,ATs }

And his river jamming range is;

{ TcTh,TcTs,ThTs,AhQh,AhTh }

If i calculated correctly your playing 8.89 effective stacks on the river, so he shoves 8.89.

So 8.89/24.93 = 0.3565 let's say 37% equity. With my range you have 60%.

Iso range, 77+, ATs+, AJo+, KQ, KJs+. I don't see it being wider than that.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

For his preflop iso'ing range i think it would look something like this;

{ 22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo }

That's 11.6%... rounds to 12% in 2 digits, so...

how can the overall PFR be 12% unless Villain is dramatically NOT PFR-ing from some position.

New task:
Fill in ranges for 6-handed play that average out to 12%.
1) give a UTG PFR range, and associated %-age
2) do this for Villain's range at each position
3) take the average of %-ages
4) if your average isn't 12%, adjust something and re-check

What?

His pfr% overall can be the same as his isoing range % from utg+1.

Edited to make more sense.

To be honest, I think this villain will iso more like 77+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs. But I've adjusted that above as everyone else seems to think it's wider.

I'd prob iso something like any ace, suited 1 gappers, any connected cards, any suited k, pp 55+.

rong that's you, this is some 14/12 nit. mmm's point is that it's highly unlikely he's iso-ing in EP with 12% when his overall PFR is 12%, because probably even the most robotic hand chart guys are playing more hands in later position, meaning the overall PFR would have to be higher.

But this isn't his standard pfr from utg+1 is it? It's his isoing range from that position. They are not necessarily the same thing.

Which is nicely illustrated by my isoing range above, that's not my standard pfr range from that position, it's way looser because there is a fish to take money from.

True. But you also clearly think it's unlikely seeing that the range you gave is like 7%.

And yes, I widen my range too here too considerably, particularly with nits to the left.

Well look, if I was doing this to calculate what I think is the best action for me to take I'd use the range I thought of. But the 12% range I gave is feasible and a dam site better than some of the ranges suggested that include the likes of 22.

But OK i'm misinterpreting you a bit I believe. MMM seemed to think it was impossible for him to have 12%, which it clearly IS possible even if seemingly unlikely.

Originally Posted by rong

Well look, if I was doing this to calculate what I think is the best action for me to take I'd use the range I thought of. But the 12% range I gave is feasible and a dam site better than some of the ranges suggested that include the likes of 22.

You never gave a 12% range dude, your first version was like 9% and your revision was like 7%. just sayin'. I believe the 12% range comes from seven-deuce or somebody.

Yeah we are mixing up our arguments here. So let me clarify.

12% is feasible given the fact his overall pfr% is 12%. That bit was just disagreeing with MMM.

I agree it's unlikely because I doubt this nit would do it.

The wide range I said I might iso with was to illustrate that an iso range can be as wide or wider than the overall pfr %.

The first range I gave of 9% or w/e was just to be more agreeable with general consensus. The 7% or w/e is what I actually think is most likely.

can any of yous tell me why you'd be expecting to see Sets OTR here with any kinda frequency?

well, it's a weird ass line for any credible hand, so we can't rule sets out. if he gets aggressive with draws his line contradicts that tendency even 3-ways if he does have the nut flush.

I can't work it out! I can't fold after villains odd as fuck line with our read!
I would bet the turn bigger expecting a call from pair+flush draw Ak-aj with AH, if villain c/c these on the flop he's not folding on this turn, if he had a slow played set he'll call again. River is fucked so just go with absolute strength.
Yes I've been drinking

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

can any of yous tell me why you'd be expecting to see Sets OTR here with any kinda frequency?

Yes. He probably saw Gavin Smith's flat call videos.

A little more info could be helpful here. What type of fish is the fish in the hand? Does he call post with A high, does he fold everything but the nuts, etc? Has the table been actively targeting the fish meaning there is a very limited amount of time to take his money? Does villain know any/all of this? Is villain willing/able to do anything with this info?

This should help us determine if villain in the hand is likely to have adjusted, and how he may have adjusted to the inclusion of the fish in the hand.

In a vacuum, this looks an awful lot like a Sklansky situation where you have flopped a monster with a redraw to a better hand, and a small chance that your opp can make a strong hand when you do improve, and then you overbet shove the nuts on the river.

Initially I thought:

Pre iso: 77+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs

Flop c/c: 77+, AhQh, AdKd, AhQx, AhKx

Turn c/c: 88, 99, TT, QQ+, AhQh, AhQx, AhKx

River donk shove: 88, TT, QQ+, AhQH


But the line is weird for any of those hands. The only way I can make sense of it is with a much wider open pre flop. I'm not adding any bluffd as he is a 14/12 with low cb and af. I don't think he never bluffs, I.just don't think he raises pre, calls, calls and then bluff shoves. So in order to make sense I'm figuring AhTh, Th9h QhTh and maybe Ah9h might need to be in there. I dunno. I suck at this.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Yes. He probably saw Gavin Smith's flat call videos.

Best videos on the net

I never said it's impossible for him to have a 12% PFR from UTG+1. I said it's extremely likely that a 14/12 is positionally aware (even if he is following a hand chart). As such, it is incredibly unlikely that his PFR range is the same from all positions. Which is fine, plenty of ranges can average to 12%. Here, HJ is one of the tighter spots. So if he's PFR-ing 12% from HJ, then what is he PFR-ing from other positions that averages out to 12%, AND isn't the same from all pos?

There are, of course, an uncountably infinite number of answers to this question, and some of them make sense for some players. I doubt that any of them make sense for a 14/12.

I think dtc asked some great questions in the first paragraph.

Most notably: Does Hero have any indication that Villain has noticed and is capable of adjusting to the fish UTG?
If not, then all this talk about Villain's ISO range is moot, at least deserving the caviat: IF villain is ISO-ing, then { range }