I lay down aces

I feel pretty meh about this laydown. I think I'm behind a lot, but maybe not enough to warrant folding. My options are either call here and call river or fold, and I didn't feel like calling off so much money.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($18.40)
SB ($2.40)
BB ($1.95)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($1.90)
Hero (MP1) ($10.95)
MP2 ($6)
CO ($17.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A
UTG calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.60, 1 fold, CO calls $0.60, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.05) J, 10, 8 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2, 1 fold, UTG calls $2

Turn: ($6.05) Q (2 players)
UTG bets $3, Hero folds

Total pot: $6.05 | Rake: $0.25

Results:
UTG didn't show
Outcome: UTG won $5.80

bad fold
he could hold AQ, in which case he has gutshot + two overcards and hit his queen on the turn
you also have outs against ANY hand, you tie AK if a king peels off

if you're behind some hands, and ahead of others, why would you not call getting 3-to-1? you'd have to be pretty certain that he has a strong hand to make that fold

let's make a range
88+, AQ+

against this tight range you're 36% and you have the odds to call

I was afraid of that. Once I got to thinking about semi-bluffing flush draws and how it didn't make much sense to be showing up with a set here (maaaaybe 88 or a tricky QQ), the only hands I'm worried about are 9x (there are a few, especially pair+FD), AK, QJ, QT, and Q8.

iopq you can't just make a range and put it into pokerstove and say we have equity to call down. There is more to poker than just immediate odds.

I just felt like as a general rule, with 3 broadways and given the action in the hand, there's a pretty good chance I'm behind here. Honestly, other than an aggressive flush draw, I think AQ or maaaaybe KK are the only hands I beat that might play like this. What if I call and the river completes one of the flushes? Do I even like my hand on an A river? Pretty much the only river I like is a K, and if I don't get that, I'm only hoping villain checks so I can check behind. I don't like that line much.

I feel like villain is showing up here with QJ, J9, T9, 99, 98 or even Q9 or 97 a lot. If I want to get away from this hand, it has to be now, right? There was a bit of a timing tell... he kind of hesitated before calling preflop, it seemed like he was on the fence between calling and folding but called because someone else was in the hand.

As a general rule, I don't like calling off the better portion of my stack when players only need one of 4 face cards to make a really good hand like a straight, flush, or full house that will beat me. In this case, a 9 has you crushed and then you're drawing to one of four Kings. Without any reads, I put this player on one of four hand ranges:

1) Connectors like T9 or 98
2) Speculative hands like A9 or 99
3) KQs or QJs drawing to the flush
4) AQ or KK or KQo or QJo or rags/busted draw and total bluff

1 and 2 have you crushed, 3 gives him lots of outs, and 4 is the best case scenario. But unfortunately, 4 is also the least likely way the hand would play out in my opinion. With any of the #4 hands, he should have all the fear that YOU would have about hand ranges 1, 2, and 3 plus he's acting out of position. The pot was pretty big @ the turn and if he did have a 9, it was a perfect opportunity to not only bet for value, but also to drive the price up so you can't afford to draw for a King and out str8 him.

I like the lay down. Continuing with the hand when he's shown this much aggression @ the turn, unless you have a really good read to the contrary, is just showing you're married to aces.

I'm assuming if one the flushes complete he's not going to turn his hand into a bluff and shove the river without having the flush unless he has no hand to speak of to begin with

What rivers are you expecting him to check on? Assuming for a second that he will bet any river, what rivers are we happy to call on? When he checks the river and we check behind, I'm expecting to see a lot of 2-pair hands or flopped sets and a few busted flush draws. If the board pairs and he bets, we're almost certainly beat (trips or full house). If he fires a non-K river, we've committed ourselves to call, but without a read I feel like we're behind way more than 75% of the time.

Here's a range I like:

Code:

Board: Jc Tc 8s Qs
Hand 0: 	29.423%  	25.75% 	03.67% 	          2096 	      299.00   { AcAs }
Hand 1: 	70.577%  	66.90% 	03.67% 	          5446 	      299.00   { 88+, AQs+, A9s, KQs, KsJs, KsTs, K9s, Kc8c, Q8s+, J8s+, Js7s, T8s+, Ts7s, 97s+, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 5c4c, AQo+, A9o, KQo, K9o, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o, 98o }

We can even throw in some more bluffing (all pocket pairs, AJ, and AT, just to add some hands we're beating pretty good) and semi-bluffing (all KJ, KT, and K8 instead of just flush draws) and we're still behind:

Code:

Board: Jc Tc 8s Qs
Hand 0: 	46.813%  	43.23% 	03.58% 	          5060 	      419.00   { AcAs }
Hand 1: 	53.187%  	49.61% 	03.58% 	          5806 	      419.00   { 22+, A9s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, Js7s, T8s+, Ts7s, 97s+, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 5c4c, A9o+, K8o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o, 98o }

I expect him to check the river a large percent of the time, even if he was bluffing on the turn he may not fire another bullet on the river

we have SOME implied odds because a red king gives us the nuts

The only other line I'd take is to call here and fold/check river. He could have lots of combo-draws, pair+draws, two pairs, straights plus 88/99/TT??

OK, I see now. If we are up against 2 pair, we have 12 outs to the best hand. We have 2 outs (red K) to the absolute nuts and 4 more outs (black K, red A) to a hand that we can consider calling a river bet with. And of course, if we are up against a single pair or a flush/combo draw we are ahead. Villain is likely checking his non-straight, non-flush hands on the river, so we might not have to pay anything more to get to showdown against the hands we are beating.

I was just concerned with being a calling station in a spot where I was pretty sure that I was behind. I timed all the way down as I made this decision, so I'm glad to know after the fact that it was indeed a very close one, and my choice to fold wasn't too bad. For now I'd rather err on the side of folding a little too much, anyways.

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

The only other line I'd take is to call here and fold/check river. He could have lots of combo-draws, pair+draws, two pairs, straights plus 88/99/TT??

yeah that's my line too unless we improve to a straight

If he's a loose caller I'd say that the turn bet represents the straight and would promptly fold, however if we're playing a player who is tighter when calling in position I'd op to call it down to the river.