How's my line?

Does my line here seem good? Have just sat down at the table so I don't have real postflop reads on the villain, he's been about as loose and passive pre as your average 5nl player.

This is a spot where a while ago I think I would have made a small river bet with the hope of getting thin value out of a weaker K but recently I've started to think that they're ahead way more often than I'm getting any more value. Figured he's not got a lot in his range he can bluff with here either.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($13.98)
MP ($5.94)
CO ($4.72)
Button ($3.10)
Hero (SB) ($5)
BB ($1.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K
1 fold, MP calls $0.05, 1 fold, Button calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, MP calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70) K, J, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, MP calls $0.60

Turn: ($1.90) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, MP calls $1.10

River: ($4.10) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $2.45, Hero folds

Total pot: $4.10 | Rake: $0.20

IMO, you only beat a bluff.
He's seen you raise PF and bet two streets with a K on board so its not likely he's betting like that all of a sudden w/ a worse K (maybe KQ?).
Most hands he holds are probably beating you unless he has guts and is bluffing...
Like you said, most at micros are unwilling to be aggressive w/o a good-very good hand...

i like checking the turn more than i do betting it, but i don't know what your line is after that. if they have worse then they're prolly just checking behind or small betting like 90% of the time because 5NL is like "what does float play mean?" so c/f actually sounds acceptable to me on the turn (especially because we don't beat KJ)

Bet, bet, check/fold, wadda line

I mean me personally that kind of makes me a little sick in my stomach and I don't mean that in a making-fun-of-you way it just really does so I'm like by then you could probably c/c

i know it doesn't sound nice and that it's as exploitable as hell but how much of his range do we beat that bets that turn more than 1/2 PSB? remember we're at 5NL

Originally Posted by surviva316

i know it doesn't sound nice and that it's as exploitable as hell but how much of his range do we beat that bets that turn more than 1/2 PSB? remember we're at 5NL

Remember we're at 5nl, where all players do whatever we want to imply they do by saying they play at 5nl.

Hell I could say this guy could be calling down with any pair because it's 5nl! Or I could say he only has sets and flushes here because it's 5nl!

Originally Posted by surviva316

i know it doesn't sound nice and that it's as exploitable as hell but how much of his range do we beat that bets that turn more than 1/2 PSB? remember we're at 5NL

you seem to worry alot about being exploited in alot of spots, yet if you're being exploited at these stakes, it's by accident.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Originally Posted by surviva316

i know it doesn't sound nice and that it's as exploitable as hell but how much of his range do we beat that bets that turn more than 1/2 PSB? remember we're at 5NL

you seem to worry alot about being exploited in alot of spots, yet if you're being exploited at these stakes, it's by accident.

Remember you make manies at pokers by exploiting things, and by exploiting someone you're exploitable by definition, so it's not always a bad thing.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

you seem to worry alot about being exploited in alot of spots, yet if you're being exploited at these stakes, it's by accident.

the point of my post was that i don't care if what i'm doing is easily exploitable by float bets.

spoon it called a bet, bet, c/f line retarded, but i don't see how it is unless our opponent is able to exploit the fact that we're capable of taking that line, which he is all of 00.1% of the time at these limits.

also, no need to get all freudian on my ass with i'm just using the limit as a justification for something i predetermined because a) the bet from villain didn't even happen and is completely hypothetical so i don't know how i can have some latent desire to fold to it and b) the quote was i actually think c/f is ACCEPTABLE, as in i know that it sounds bad but we're crushed by his range imo (granted there are no reads on villain other than he plays at 5nl). surely it's better than betting the turn AND THEN c/f'ing river when there are only 5 cards that make us feel a little bit kinda better about our hand.

my grand point is that all this is probably moot because if we check the turn we're seeing a free card most of the time in my experience, and then we value town the river (much better spot to extract even if that 7 does come up

Yeah, didn't much enjoy c/fing that river but would much rather have led again than c/ced that bet. The way I saw it, I'm still ahead of his range on the turn and could get value out of various K or Js, especially if he has a club. When the river comes I decide he's checking back all his hands that I beat except maybe AQ or Q10 with a club, that's assuming he has the balls to bluff these on the river (in my experience you usually get a check back from missed draw, or the most pathetic of bluffs, like 1/6 pot). And he's obviously making this kind of bet with all his flushes and 33. To be honest I never really considered calling this bet. Was expecting more of a discussion on merits of leading river.

Spoon, could you give me a range you put villain on that makes it correct to call this river bet?

Originally Posted by knaplek

Spoon, could you give me a range you put villain on that makes it correct to call this river bet?

Any range that you have 38% equity or more against.

Fwiw I'm a fan of checking the turn in this hand.

Originally Posted by knaplek

Spoon, could you give me a range you put villain on that makes it correct to call this river bet?

imo, there are two problems here. one: you don't have any reads on the opponent. it's so hard to put opponent on a range as a result

the second problem is that if you thought that you were far enough ahead of his continuing range if you bet the turn (which by definition of a value bet you should have), then it's tough to stomach folding the river when we're getting 38% odds. the seven doesn't really improve his range. if anything, it gets rid of two possible sets. i guess AQ and QT are possible parts of his range that fall out of the picture when he bets the river, but that's not enough to go from "whooo TPTK, let's take his money" to "oh darnit time to fold"

Originally Posted by surviva316

i guess AQ and QT are possible parts of his range that fall out of the picture when he bets the river

Really? You think he's betting a weaker made hand for value then? I would say if he's betting he's either got a flush or better or he's bluffing. For me AQ and Q10 are the biggest reasons I might have considered calling

Originally Posted by knaplek

Originally Posted by surviva316

i guess AQ and QT are possible parts of his range that fall out of the picture when he bets the river

Really? You think he's betting a weaker made hand for value then? I would say if he's betting he's either got a flush or better or he's bluffing. For me AQ and Q10 are the biggest reasons I might have considered calling

this comment makes me understand your bet turn, fold river line even more. if you want to understand why spoonit gets so sick when he sees PFR, vbet, vbet, c/f so bad then do a street-by-street range analysis on this hand. if you're using the ranges that spoonit is using or the ranges that i'm using either way you're gonna find one of your two decisions a mistake: vbetting the turn or c/f'ing the river because it's hard to see how the blank 7 and villain's bet changes his range enough to go from "woohoo i have TPTK" to "damn i can't call here." i personally think you were behind his turn continuing range and your mistake was when you vbet the turn

Ok, first of all thanks for the input, don't want to be one of those people who asks for help on a hand and then defends their line to the death! I suppose I see the reasoning for a turn check if you don't think he's calling another bet with weaker made hands much. On the river though it's not the 7 that changes things, it's that the villain makes a strong bet. To me this polarises his range a lot, as he'd surely check back hands which he would expect to have showdown value. Do you not think this is the case? You talk about putting him on a range but you haven't actually mentioned what that range is after each action, would be interested to see what that would be if you could be bothered; would help me understand your reasoning a lot better. Thanks

personally, without reads at 5NL all that a >1/2 PSB means that villain has some sort of hand that has some sort of showdown value, so he took a little white marble and threw it into a roullette wheel and it happened to land on "Bet." this is an exaggeration of course but the point is that i don't go as far as saying "he would've check behind on the river if he had KQ or QJ or hell even TT" unless i've had enough hands with him to start to believe that he's a TAgg reg who may think like i do. if i have a read on him that he's a station then the way you played this hand is pretty acceptable because his call on the turn doesn't mean anything while his bet on the river means the world. but we have no idea who this dude is and how he plays so here are the ranges i could see putting him on:

PREFLOP: since we don't even have a vpip for opponent i'm not even gonna bother putting him on a limp/calling range

FLOP: he calls a bet, and this barely narrows it down, but any AT+ is possible, any king, any J, any two clubs and a lot of split pairs (i can't emphasize enough how having no reads puts us in a pickle here).

TURN: here's where i would've checked because i gotta figure that if he calls another bet here, then we have <50% equity or at least we're gonna be put in a tough spot on the river. once he calls i'd say his range is something like {KQ, KJ, 33, AcJ, Ac7 and about a million hands that have 2 clubs in them} slightly less likely {QT (not of clubs), AK, AQ, KT, K9s} and cards that i don't expect but aren't surprised to see {KT, QJ, JTs, AA, KK, QQ, JJ}. i didn't put how many combinations of each hand there are, but sufficed to say we're dominated if this is his range.

RIVER: whatever range YOU thought he would continue with (which you HAD to have thought you had >50% of equity against to value bet) the only things that fall out of his range when he bets is QT (9 non club combos), AQ (12 combos), and AT (12 combos) and Ac7 (3 combos) is the only hand that sucked out on you. i don't think this is enough hands to fall out of his hands you beat range to have your equity fall from 51% to <38% because your range would've had to have included a whole bunch of garbage K's and J's for you to be ahead of it in the first place.

if you can give me a turn continuing range you beat and a river betting range you have less than 38% equity against that makes sense, then i'll say "cool, agree to disagree, but at least you thought good and hard about ranges for this hand." but now i have to go 'cause i'm late for work

On the turn I expected him to continue with more random Ks and Js than you did. Also one thing you haven't considered is the equity I gain when he folds ANY hand with one club in it on the turn, so even if he's folding his QcJ, J10c hands I gain equity by betting + I obv gain value if they call aswell. Still, it seems like the value was pretty thin if there at all and I'll certainly look more into not value betting this kind of spot so thinly in future.

Disagree with you about the river though. Bad players love to see showdowns and I pretty much never see random 5nl players make thin value bets in position on the river, whether they know that's what it is or not. Pretty sure when he makes that river bet my equity vs his range falls from somewhere close to 50% to about 5%.

Originally Posted by surviva316

Originally Posted by knaplek

Originally Posted by surviva316

i guess AQ and QT are possible parts of his range that fall out of the picture when he bets the river

Really? You think he's betting a weaker made hand for value then? I would say if he's betting he's either got a flush or better or he's bluffing. For me AQ and Q10 are the biggest reasons I might have considered calling

this comment makes me understand your bet turn, fold river line even more. if you want to understand why spoonit gets so sick when he sees PFR, vbet, vbet, c/f so bad then do a street-by-street range analysis on this hand. if you're using the ranges that spoonit is using or the ranges that i'm using either way you're gonna find one of your two decisions a mistake: vbetting the turn or c/f'ing the river because it's hard to see how the blank 7 and villain's bet changes his range enough to go from "woohoo i have TPTK" to "damn i can't call here." i personally think you were behind his turn continuing range and your mistake was when you vbet the turn

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by knaplek

Spoon, could you give me a range you put villain on that makes it correct to call this river bet?

Any range that you have 38% equity or more against.

Fwiw I'm a fan of checking the turn in this hand.

Whoo hoo, somebody gets it.

Why didn't you check the turn which may complete a possible flush? check-call on the turn and I might even bet on the river If oponent checks behind me on turn.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Whoo hoo, somebody gets it.

am i actually getting some FTR street cred? (btw, i'm gonna be thoroughly embarrassed if spoonit comes out and says that i'm NOT that one who "gets it")

Originally Posted by knaplek

On the turn I expected him to continue with more random Ks and Js than you did. Also one thing you haven't considered is the equity I gain when he folds ANY hand with one club in it on the turn, so even if he's folding his QcJ, J10c hands I gain equity by betting + I obv gain value if they call aswell. Still, it seems like the value was pretty thin if there at all and I'll certainly look more into not value betting this kind of spot so thinly in future.

Disagree with you about the river though. Bad players love to see showdowns and I pretty much never see random 5nl players make thin value bets in position on the river, whether they know that's what it is or not. Pretty sure when he makes that river bet my equity vs his range falls from somewhere close to 50% to about 5%.

for cereal? i show up 6 mins late for work so that i can satisfy your need to create ranges for you and i get back from work (btw, only got $70 in tip, so lord knows i'm gonna have a short fuse) and the best analysis for this hand you can give is that you "have more random K's and J's" in his continuing range than i do? for one, you don't have the king of clubs in your hand and the king of clubs isn't on the board so every single Kxs you put in his range that you beat is cancelled out by a Kcxc hand in his range (this is a logical fact that is inescapable). so unless your garbage Kx's include things like K2o......

so i repeat my proposition for you...offer a turn continuing range that you have 51% equity against AND a river betting range that you have <38% equity against and i'll agree to disagree. honestly, i'll stfu if you just take the time and calculate the ranges and your equity against the ranges even if it includes stuff i disagree with like JhTc making it to this point