This second hand is a bit different. Consider what the turn pot size will be if you just call the flop (even if the button folds) and how easy it will be to get the money in. The idea is that if you just call the flop, you're getting the button to play a wider range of hands on average and getting more value out of the hand without giving anything up at all.

On the turn, I don't know what possessed you to make such a horrible bet size, or what possessed you to just call the minraise. When you make this bet, consider the implied odds you're giving anyone who has two spades and how much money will be behind on the river to get in.

As played on the river, it's still time to put the money in. Instead you miss value (a common theme for this thread and the hands in it).

Additionally, it should be noted that the % chance to win in PokerTracker's replayer is based off of your opponents having a random hand aka any two cards. It doesn't mean anything useful.