Quote Originally Posted by dranger7070
I'm looking through the BC for some good articles and whatnot, and I can't believe this didn't get any love.
i believe it. It is kinda arduous, i read it first time around and didn't bother to respond. Things like steal sizing of 5x caused initial consternation as i don't think that the relative merits of this vs 2.5x were explained convincingly, or at all.
I also think that most of the intended audience will gain more from reading/posting a bunch of hand histories and reading the digest. This post is dense and will take a lot of time to completely absorb, yet the content is hard to apply to real-game situations to increase profitability. Especially given the crazy caricature used...

i think writing this post and the process involved would have been of immense value to op, however it seems to be able to be summarised in a few sentences, viz:

if we know loads about our opponent's tendencies we can easily exploit them. For example, if we know that he calls steals with a well defined range, donks high flops with his entire range, and continues with his made hands but gives up with air then we should call a lot of these flop donks and turns will play themselves.
Also, we should note that the cards we hold and the cards on the board affect the relative frequencies of holdings within his range - however this is redundant given the strong reads that we have.

also, some of the math could probably contain more description to make it easier to follow, e.g.
KK-22/AK/AQs is:
12*6 = KK-22 = 72
AK = 16
AQs = 4
for a sum of 92 hand combinations

K83 flop eliminates 4xAK, 3xKK, 3x88, 3x33 - leaving 79 combinations.

on the flop his made hands that continue with turn aggression are
12xAK, 3xKK, 3x88, 3x33, plus the pairs that hit the turn (this was left out of op's calculations).

There is also (i think - can someone check for me!) a significant error here
Quote Originally Posted by nice theory post, don't take this personally please!
We call $0.20 79 times and bet $0.31 70 times. Total expenditure $37.5
We win $0.42 58 times. Total gain $24.36
we call $0.2 79 times, leaving a pot of $0.62.
of these combos, villain bets turn with 9 combos, check-calls with 12, and check-folds with 58. Op is assuming that we are losing always when villain check-calls, fair enough for simplicity.
we bet turn 70x, and take it down 58x.

we are analysing the profitability of the flop call in isolation, based on predictable turn play. Obviously the turn bet in isolation is +EV (this needs to be pointed out clearly)
the cost is right, the return is not.
so, we return a pot of 0.62+0.31 58x = 53.94
the flop call has caused us to invest 37.5, so the extra value section doesn't stand