How many is enough?

How many hands is enough to determine if you are beating a particular level? I have 10K hands now at 10NL FR, but my graph looks filled with variance. I had a decent start, but then I ran into a dry spell of cards and an even worse period of getting stacked by sets and oversets.

I'm a tourney-convert, so I'm way over-rolled for 10NL and eager to move up to 25NL. I told myself I'd first get to 10K of hands and see how things were going before assessing whether or not to level up. Now I just feel confused. Any thoughts?

Well, you're certainly beating 10nl. However I think its a huge mistake to attribute that 5k hand stretch as variance. Obv set over set and such are going to happen, but it seems that the beginning of that stretch is just downhill the whole time which is kind of funky. imo figure it out now before going to 25nl.

Since you have the bankroll though, and some experience now, its not really bad to just go on anyway. Just set a stop loss.

Do you feel you're outplaying your opponents? Do you see when they're playing in a way that's worse than what you would do?

If I feel comfortable and I'm up I consider myself beating the level. Be self aware and consider whether you're just running hot though.

How many hands is enough to determine if you are beating a particular level?

You can never be 100% sure that you're beating a particular level. However, with your win-rate and standard deviation over a sample, you can see what the chance is that you're a winning player using some good ole statistics.

I would suggest that you go ahead and move up.

only up 7 buy ins over 10k hands? is that normal or a good amount to be up over 10 k hands? i have no idea, seems low to consider yourself dominating the level...idk though i play more tourneeis than cash

Originally Posted by Roco415

only up 7 buy ins over 10k hands? is that normal or a good amount to be up over 10 k hands? i have no idea, seems low to consider yourself dominating the level...idk though i play more tourneeis than cash

I'd say you shouldn't expect anything over 10 buyins over 10K hands unless you're playing 2NL or you are a huge winner at $100+ buyin SNGs

10k hands is not a very clear sample, especially when trying to determine win rates.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

10k hands is not a very clear sample, especially when trying to determine win rates.

that's why you should ask yourself whether it should usually go like the beginning/end parts of the graph or like the middle

When you lose, are you running into the top parts of people's ranges, getting coolered, or are you just playing like crap?

Long term a buyin per 1k hands is running very well, so 7 buyins over 10k hands is pretty decent. 10k really isnt enough to accurately measure a bb/100 winrate, but its enough to know how you feel and see some results to judge by.

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Long term a buyin per 1k hands is running very well

Running well long term? Does that even exist? If so, I want it.

Thanks for the comments. The middle section worries me a bit, although I wouldn't have considered my play nasty spewage, just opponents with cards at the top of their ranges'. I might try seeding in some 25NL to get some confidence before I move up completely.

is it possible when they were at top of their ranges....you misjudged their ranges? maybe you should post a couple of those hands just as self check and 2nd opinion to make certain.

again, it sounds like im being debbie downer here but just trying to cover all bases haha

Nak, you ever watch youself play hands with a replayer? If your software has it, try to filter hands from that stretch where you lost over a certain amount (let's say $2 or something) and watch 'em all. Might be a waste of time, but might give you a different perspective. I did a study on a bad stretch a while back and realized I was overplaying particular hands like AJ, AQ. Wouldn't have realized it without seeing it all put together like that.

On the move up, I say go. The move to 25NL did not seem particularly big to me. I'm sure you'll be fine.

10NL to 25NL is the largest jump other than 50NL to 100NL imo because 10NL plays somewhat like 2 or 5 NL while at 25NL you play against some people who know what they're doing

it's also 2.5x in stakes