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 Originally Posted by RiverMonkey
According to a chart provided by Lou Krieger that I have, the odds of hitting a set with a wired pair is 11.8% or equivalently, a 7.5:1 long-shot.
One way to calculate this: you need to enumerate the total number of flops (out of the 50C3 = 19,600 possible ones) that would contain one or more of your two outs.
By immediate pot odds alone, if there is >=7.5 small bets in the pot pre- flop, you should stay in to draw to your set. However, given how high the implied odds are for a set (since it's so well disguised), it's still profitable to see the flop when there are less than 7.5 small bets in the pot pre- flop.
You need to be aware of potential raises behind you (as well as check raises in front of you) that might impact your odds.
You needn't enumerate all flops to find out your odds of hitting a set on the flop with a pocket pair. You can just figure out the probability of not hitting your set and subtract that from 1.
You hold 2 cards. There are 50 unseen cards (in the deck and other peoples' hands). There are 2 cards that complete your set.
On the first card of the flop, you know that 2 cards help you and 48 don't. So 48/50 don't help. You continue this for the other cards to get the probability for not making your set on the flop:
48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48 = 88.24%
If you subtract this from 1, you get the probability for making your set on the flop:
1 - 88.24% = 11.76%
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When deciding whether to call a raise with small pocket pairs, I think it is important to consider both the size of the pot and stack size. In a loose game with a lot of people calling the pre-flop raise, you should be more willing to call with a small pocket pair, even if the original raiser doesn't have a very big stack.
Suppose that the raise is $10 and there are 3 callers before the action gets to you. With $40 already in the pot, you really only need to win an additional $35 when you make your set to make the $10 call worthwhile. So the pre-flop raiser doesn't have to have $75 in his stack, only $35 ... if you think he is willing to put that money in the pot.
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