How to beat the gambler?

I am a first time poster, as is apparent, but have been lurking for awhile trying to hone my game. I know poker players hate hearing bad beat stories in general, since you more seasoned players have undoubtedly seen it all. But, in the last month, I have suffered several unlikely beats that make me wonder how often this type of stuff should happen.

I play mostly NLHE B&M cash games, anywhere from $100-$300 buyin and smallish type blinds ($2/$2/$2, $5/$3/$2, $5/$2, etc.) I play about 2-3 times a week (maybe 4 hour sessions, so lets say 250-300 hands a week). In the last month the following has occurred.

Dealt pocket eights and flop a set, push all in and end up set over set on some guy (he had 6s), the guy gets the one-outer.

Dealt KJh, flop comes Ah 10h 4h, get all my chips in the middle with one caller, guy hits the house (with set 10s) on the river.

Omaha H/L ($4/$8), trip my 3 on the flop and pair my J on the turn. Guy calls all the way and sets his Ks on the river (two outs).

Would I have done anything differently? The only thing would have done is to push in more chips if I had more. The problem is it seems the group I am playing against is willing to pay pretty much any amount (like a $200 all in) to see two cards when they flop a flush draw.

My only real question is how often should one realisticly expect to lose my hands. Is this just colossally bad luck or should I expect such beats with this level of frequency?

Any other comments are appreciated, and thanks in advance.

M-

Hell, I'd have done exactly the same. In my mind, that's just like playing aces. You know they will get cracked, but that it's unlikely. You just have to make sure that when you win, they make up for the losses.

First scenario, the guy hit is one outer... Ok, so the other how many times are you going to walk home with his whole stack in your pocket? Same with number two... Ok, it's amaybe a little more likely as he needs to pair either of the two cards on the board, but again, it is _likely_ that you'll be going home with his stack.

I'm not saying a thing about the Omaha hand because I am still learning it, but the first two just seem like things that happen, but are just not likely. Take the scout motto... Be prepared. Just make the other times count.

Im only new and have come across from betting on horses.

Whilst poker players can work out odds they seem to have little understanding of seeing them.

A one outer with the turn and river is about 1 in 23. Now id like to be laying those juicy odds every time but I will also lose 1 in 23. You will see it go against what seems regularly because it ain't 1000 to 1, its 23 to 1.

Now when you start talking 4 outers (gut shot) with turn and river to come you are looking at approx 1 in 6. Again juicy odds to lay but you will see the long shot come in everyday because it ain't that long really.

Also because these long shots do come in those who cant help themselves will bet them because the winning feeling is what they seek, not the feeling of making sensible bets.

In essence there are no once in a blue moon draws.

The nut flush vs boat hand - if you got it all in on the flop then he had 17 outs (7 on turn, 10 on river), while you had 2 outs to beat that (Qh). You'll lose 1 time in 3 - you made the right play, that's all there is to it.

Also, in the first two hands, the villain was right to call in both cases - set under set is so rare you'd almost never fold bottom set, and as we've seen above, even if you have the stone cold nuts in the second hand (as you do) you're only winning 66% of the time, so you need to be bluffing/holding tp/2p/flush draw less than 20% of the time for his call to be correct.

I'd be happy to lose all my money in all three spots. (not totally sure about omaha though) You put your money in when you were in great shape. As the odds say you will win these more often than you lose. Thats the thing with poker it is still somewhat gambling and all you can do is get your money in while your ahead.

Thanks for the advice.

A few more questions, if anyone cares to comment.

So, in the situation where you flop the board nuts, but there is a chance someone could improve to a better hand (last night it happened twice again - nuts straight and top set cracked by flushes), is it smarter to make a smaller sized bet, say 5xBB, and get out cheap if the flush or straight card hits, and then lay the hammer down if the turn is an apparent blank, since it seems that the gambolers at the clubs I go to are willing to pay any amount after the flop (i.e., my all ins really aren't scaring them), but might not be so ready to go to the felt if there is only one card to come?

With regards to the odds of someone pulling off a miracle, I don't disagree with the stated odds in the post above, as they are based on the assumption that the outs still exist in the deck (i.e., have not been mucked, burned, or are currently being held by another player). I am wondering if there are any statistical analysis including the likelihood that at least some of the outs are no longer available (which, to my mind, should decrease the odds of pulling the miracle off to some extent).

Also, how many buyins will you typically blow through before you call it a day?

Thanks again,

M-

When you’re betting your hands your goal is to out price the flush draws but still giving them a price so if they chose to call you they are making a mistake. For example for someone to be getting the correct price to call on a flush draw they need 4-1. I usually like to give them 3-1. I usually bet from 3/4 to a pot sized bet so they are making a mistake if they call you. If they are willing to call any price any time then if your read is that they are on a draw put it all in. This is how you make money in the long run by putting your money in when you’re a favorite. You might have lost the last 3 times when they hit they're flush but in the long run you will win more than you lose granted you are the favorite as long as they don’t have a open ended straight flush draw with over cards. As for dropping buy ins I don’t look at how many buy ins I drop I look at my state of mind and why I dropped the buy in. I'm pretty good at reading myself and you have to know when you’re playing bad or tilting that is the time to stop.

Originally Posted by moronest

Im only new and have come across from betting on horses.

Whilst poker players can work out odds they seem to have little understanding of seeing them.

A one outer with the turn and river is about 1 in 23. Now id like to be laying those juicy odds every time but I will also lose 1 in 23. You will see it go against what seems regularly because it ain't 1000 to 1, its 23 to 1.

Now when you start talking 4 outers (gut shot) with turn and river to come you are looking at approx 1 in 6. Again juicy odds to lay but you will see the long shot come in everyday because it ain't that long really.

Also because these long shots do come in those who cant help themselves will bet them because the winning feeling is what they seek, not the feeling of making sensible bets.

In essence there are no once in a blue moon draws.

Nice post

Originally Posted by Lithium

Thanks for the advice.

A few more questions, if anyone cares to comment.

So, in the situation where you flop the board nuts, but there is a chance someone could improve to a better hand (last night it happened twice again - nuts straight and top set cracked by flushes), is it smarter to make a smaller sized bet, say 5xBB, and get out cheap if the flush or straight card hits, and then lay the hammer down if the turn is an apparent blank, since it seems that the gambolers at the clubs I go to are willing to pay any amount after the flop (i.e., my all ins really aren't scaring them), but might not be so ready to go to the felt if there is only one card to come?

First of all, post the hands and you will get much better advice. Second, don't give your opponents a chance to fold. If they are calling your all-ins with draws, let them and be happy about it.

Originally Posted by Lithium

With regards to the odds of someone pulling off a miracle, I don't disagree with the stated odds in the post above, as they are based on the assumption that the outs still exist in the deck (i.e., have not been mucked, burned, or are currently being held by another player). I am wondering if there are any statistical analysis including the likelihood that at least some of the outs are no longer available (which, to my mind, should decrease the odds of pulling the miracle off to some extent).

I've seen this thinking a few times but it's flawed. Yes, in the cases where an out gets burned the likelihood that the draw hits decreases. But everytime another card gets burned the likelihood increases. You can't just think of one case and disregard the other. Burning a card doesn't give you any info about it, and therefore it doesn't affect the odds.

Originally Posted by Lithium

Also, how many buyins will you typically blow through before you call it a day?

Thanks again,

M-

This shouldn't matter as long as you're playing well. If you think losing one buy-in will affect your play, quit or take a break. If you think losing 10 buy-ins won't affect it, stay as long as the game is good.