Hit the set...now what?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($14.65)
SB ($25.85)
BB ($14.60)
UTG ($24.90)
UTG+1 ($26.80)
Hero (MP1) ($36.95)
MP2 ($44.35)
CO ($24.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6, 6
UTG bets $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, MP2 calls $1, 2 folds, SB raises to $3.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($9) 4, 6, A (2 players)
SB bets $4.50, Hero....

Total pot: $9


I'm wondering about bet sizing here. Villain is 15/11/ 7.1 3bet /INF AF over 50 hands

{converted by Stax - Sorry... It hurt my eyes}

...pays off AA. U need a read that he ONLY 3-bets AA pre to fold here.

Stick one hand down your pants and the other on SHIP IT?

He's betting low on this flop, I enjoy an occasional minraise to pot here so I can build the pot knowing he's not gonna fold to it. If he's sitting on rockets, then damn.

With no reads, no stakes (is this $25NL perchance?), no stacks and nothing to help range this guy it's hard to say what I'd do on the turn & river.

Fold preflop.

C'mon now.

Originally Posted by Bbickes

Fold preflop.

C'mon now.

How can you say that without knowing his stack size? This is an incomplete HH...

shit never mind
didn't see the 3b

fold pre. raise now ldo.

Originally Posted by Lucothefish

Originally Posted by Bbickes

Fold preflop.

C'mon now.

How can you say that without knowing his stack size? This is an incomplete HH...

Look again, I updated the HH.

I am raising, I was curious as to how much? I made it $12.

He folded QQ (is what he said in the chat).

Originally Posted by CBAT

Originally Posted by Lucothefish

Originally Posted by Bbickes

Fold preflop.

C'mon now.

How can you say that without knowing his stack size? This is an incomplete HH...

Look again, I updated the HH.

I am raising, I was curious as to how much? I made it $12.

He folded QQ (is what he said in the chat).

I say make it around 10. This way, your turn shove would give him ~3:1 and he can't fold AK with odds like that.

It's a bit of a weak 3bet, but you'd pretty much have to stack him all the time to get the right set odds here. And if you don't think your opponent will stack off light, this probably wouldn't be a good call. If you do hit your set though, they probably won't put you on a set, since you're calling a 3bet w/ 66.

He's never folding an A ever its a 3b pot. Don't set mine in 3b pots its a horrid habit to get into and you will get brutally owned as you move up.

don't raise the flop

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

don't raise the flop

odd. This is the first time you and I have agreed in like months.

yea you probably had the wrong reasons though

I JUST KEEEEEEEEEEEEDING

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

don't raise the flop

This.

and fold pre

Fold pre.

As played, flat the flop and shove the turn. If he has AA then good for him.

@ op.

Do you know "why" you should fold pre?

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

@ op.

Do you know "why" you should fold pre?

umm, it costs me 2.25 more which is about 1/10th of my stack, so to be profitable I have to get all the money in when I do hit the set?

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

don't raise the flop

Why? I have been watching all the vids over at GS, and I don't think I have ever seen you check a hand like this (slowplay....not done with all the vids yet though ).

Normally you are conveying that we should be trying to figure out how to get it all in. In this case if we call the flop bet, there will be $18 in the pot, with villain having 18 left, making getting it all in fairly easy if we shove the turn. Am I getting close?

We shouldn't raise the flop here and give him a reason to fold QQ-KK prematurely, essentially.

Originally Posted by killerkebab

We shouldn't raise the flop here and give him a reason to fold QQ-KK prematurely, essentially.

Yea, but villian is betting small on the flop and there's a flush draw. Don't we want to take away his drawing odds?

[quote="CBAT"

He folded QQ (is what he said in the chat).[/quote]

I hate results.

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

Originally Posted by killerkebab

We shouldn't raise the flop here and give him a reason to fold QQ-KK prematurely, essentially.

Yea, but villian is betting small on the flop and there's a flush draw. Don't we want to take away his drawing odds?

A flush draw would be unlikely to be in his range here given his 3-bet against an early position opener.

Definitely fold preflop, as played don't raise the flop, lets see a turn.

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

@ op.

Do you know "why" you should fold pre?

Can I take a stab at this and just check my reasoning.

UTG has raised so should be on a pretty tight range say QQ+ , AK. with 1$ to call the odds are thereandf his stack is big enough, so that hitting the set with the 15:1 rule it will pay off . Once it is then reraised by SB with a stack of $25.85 , his stack isn't big enough to pay off under the 15:1 rule so that it then becomes a fold.

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

Originally Posted by killerkebab

We shouldn't raise the flop here and give him a reason to fold QQ-KK prematurely, essentially.

Yea, but villian is betting small on the flop and there's a flush draw. Don't we want to take away his drawing odds?

Other than AhKh, which we're stacking off with anyway, what flush draws do you see in our opponent's range?

QQ - 6 combinations
KK - 6 combinations
AA - 3 combinations
AK - 12 combinations, of which AhKh is 1.

Now, why are we afraid of flush draws again?

If he has KK-QQ he's not putting anymore money in the pot anyway. So we raise to get value from hands that are drawing or have hit the ace, which are in his range a lot.

this range above by killerkebab is not 7.1% which he 3bets. 7.1% is much wider. So there could be some fd's in his range and most definitely Ax's.

I'd of folded preflop and I wouldn't raise the flop. I'd push the turn.

oh he'll put more money in the pot with KK/QQ, we just have to let him

Originally Posted by BigPapi

If he has KK-QQ he's not putting anymore money in the pot anyway. So we raise to get value from hands that are drawing or have hit the ace, which are in his range a lot.

this range above by killerkebab is not 7.1% which he 3bets. 7.1% is much wider. So there could be some fd's in his range and most definitely Ax's.

What do you expect villain to do with Ax here if we raise? Assuming it's not AK. Is he stacking off with AQ/AJ? What about KK/QQ/JJ? I'm not going to rule out villain having flush draws in his range. But come on... It's a 3bet pot and we have a set on a good board. If villain hits a flush we still have redraws (10 outs). There is now way I'm raising this board and letting villain fold Ax, KK, QQ. Especially when we can all have a PSB left on the turn.

Originally Posted by BigPapi

If he has KK-QQ he's not putting anymore money in the pot anyway. So we raise to get value from hands that are drawing or have hit the ace, which are in his range a lot.

this range above by killerkebab is not 7.1% which he 3bets. 7.1% is much wider. So there could be some fd's in his range and most definitely Ax's.

Sample size is 50 hands. All that means is that he's 3bet once before on this table. We've called a raise and then called a 3bet - if anything I'd say there are more flush draws in our range than villain's.

i see your point(s). didn't realize it was 50 hands though. If we think he'll bluff it often enough I agree we can just c/c down till the money is in the pot. What do you think of this then: now you can still get value from his Ax hands etc. what if another heart comes on the turn? even though it's unlikely he has it, it may kill the action no? Better line against a less agressive player (even though only 50 hands)

spenda's right, you should flat the flop. It's actually really simple:

-He's a tight ass and his raise size suggests he's never bluffing here. It also suggests he doesn't have ak so we're going to put him on a range of just like JJ+ (even if he has AK, it doesn't matter whether you raise the flop or not he's stacking off anyway)

- If he has AA you're gonna lose

- So if he has KK-JJ, whats the best way to get money in? Since he is oop, he can make a lot of mistakes if you flat the flop. He could bet the turn himself, c/c the turn, maybe even c/shove the turn just because he puts you on a fd or something. If you raise, he'll most likely fold all these hands.

Originally Posted by killerkebab

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

Originally Posted by killerkebab

We shouldn't raise the flop here and give him a reason to fold QQ-KK prematurely, essentially.

Yea, but villian is betting small on the flop and there's a flush draw. Don't we want to take away his drawing odds?

Other than AhKh, which we're stacking off with anyway, what flush draws do you see in our opponent's range?

QQ - 6 combinations
KK - 6 combinations
AA - 3 combinations
AK - 12 combinations, of which AhKh is 1.

Now, why are we afraid of flush draws again?

I agree with both you and Micro2Macro due to the 3-bet pot. I was wroooong.

Calling pre is fine since we're in pos

I'd flat flop too.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

oh he'll put more money in the pot with KK/QQ, we just have to let him

Well this is kind of wrong. He's probably not going to bet anymore after cbetting if he has KK-JJ. But if he does check the turn a bet there puts overall more money in the pot and is less strong looking than a flop raise.

And lets not be retarded here he's putting his stack in with AQ-AJ if he happened to threebet 100% of the time if we raise the flop. But he probably didn't 3bet them, and even if we call he's still putting his stack in a majority of the time some way or another.