Quote Originally Posted by Jason
A big part of forming ranges is playing an opponent often enough to know their tendencies. Without that, I default to a common, average to good player, and most don't make huge over bets with cards you can beat. I'd probably fold.
I disagree here. If you have played a fair amount of hands at any one particular stakes, and yet you do not have any reads or stats on an individual, it is a fair assumption to make that they are not a regular. Sure not all regulars are good, and not all unknowns are terrible. But regulars have at least shown that they are not bustoing (at least not quick). Unknowns on the other hand you simply have treat them as just that... A random. Someone you don't know anything of, other than they aren't a regular. Which usually means either (A) they just moved up, (B) they just moved down, (C) they are a fish. None of those go over well for assuming they are a good player.

Quote Originally Posted by Jason
Some other things to consider. AK is a nice hand, but that's way too big of a 3bet. Against unknown villains, AK is a hand that you don't want to bloat the pot up too big even if you DO hit your hand and especially if you don't.
I disagree again. The 3bet isn't inheriently sized badly. Villain made it 3x, and hero made it 9.5x. The "standard" here is like 9x ($0.90). However, I will agree that a smaller 3bet isn't bad given villain's stack-size. So I'd maybe make it 8x, but 9x is still fine, and I probably auto-pilot 9x at the table.

And AK is definitely a hand you want to bloat the pot with preflop. AK gains it's value from getting allin preflop and seeing all 5 cards. Even against a range of solely QQ+, AK, our AK will have 40% equity. Given that much equity and even a little bit of fold equity preflop, we are going to show a profit 3betting AK and getting it in preflop.

Obviously it's not ideal to 3bet AK and miss the board. But, that doesn't mean our 3bet is any less profitable. We were faced with a decision preflop, and we made the most +EV decision at that time. Everything else we have to deal with when it comes. That isn't to say we shouldn't plan our hand, but obviously our plan involves trying to get as much money in preflop with AK as possible against a villain who is going to not only call a 3bet with tons of hands that are mistakes, but also play generally terrible postflop.

Quote Originally Posted by Jason
On the turn, betting is generally good here, although, if the pot is that bloated, you might even consider another check.
Checking on the turn here is pretty bad imho. Villain's definitely not going to fold any 77-QQ hand to a single bet here, and at this point when he checks to us, those 77-QQ hands along with Kx, Ax hands are his most likely holdings. We are WAY ahead of his checking range, and should definitely be betting the turn for value.


Quote Originally Posted by Jason
Remember TPTK is generally a hand you do NOT want to commit your stack with UNLESS you have a good read or reason to.
Saying you shouldn't commit your stack with TPTK is a blanket statement. I would write another paragraph saying how much I disagree with blanket statements, BUT you did follow it up with "unless you have reads", so I agree. However, I would say having TPTK in a 3bet pot against a 70bb likely fish, on a relatively non-scary board facing a pretty strange line, and a range that you are likely still ahead of, is good enough reason to commit your stack. Or shall I say 70bb of your stack.

Quote Originally Posted by Jason
Your bet is too large in my opinion.
I agree. However, it shouldn't be as small as you are advising imo. Like I said, he just is not folding 77-QQ to a single street of betting. And this goes for most villains that would call a 3bet in this position. Especially on a card that most villains interpret as a scare card "all the time". So bet and get value. He is most definitely calling with worse. I'd bet something like $1.30ish. But I don't think villain's betsize is all that bad, and against this particular player it's prob okay to bet turn even larger like $1.65.

Last thing about Jason's posts... Yes you should always try to plan your hand. But just because you don't know how to respond to a check/raise doesn't mean you shouldn't bet when you are faced with a VERY CLEAR +EV bet. For one, you shouldn't expect to get check/raised in this spot very often. It's just a dryish board, and the majority of villain's will not play this way. You are going to get in tough spots in poker. Avoiding a +EV bet by checking just because a check/raise is going to put you in a marginal spot is going to be incorrect. That's playing defensively, and costing you value (aka money).


Quote Originally Posted by wonderland
the consensus from rather good players seems to be to call, and yet i feel a fold here is good.
Does the fact that villain had you beat this time have anything to do with you believing a fold here is correct? If villain shows up with KQ here, do you laugh at his terrible play, and move on saying "I knew it was a call!"? I'm thinking you do. But I could be wrong.

Quote Originally Posted by wonderland
it comes down to... is TPTK good enough to play for 70bb given the player is a fish and can have us easily beat with 6x (K6s would not be out of his range here) AA, 33.
I would say so.. If you can't put any random bluffs or crazy pp type hands in his range, then this is a fold. It's easily recognizable by doing a bit of pokerstoving, and comparing equity to pot odds. That is you need 32% equity to have a BE call here. If you put him on only {AA/33/76/65/86/A6/KQ/KJ/KT}, then it's a fold. However, against villains this bad, and even randoms that I don't know, I'm fairly certain that is not their only range. I've seen quite a few bad players do this with hands like 77-QQ, Flush Draws, and even bluffs with hands like QJ/AJ/AQ/J9, etc. So given that this villain we have stats telling us he isn't a very good player, I'm willing to call it off here.

Quote Originally Posted by wonderland
Now then.. 3betting? surely we 3bet AK?? what SHOULD have happened is that this idiot raises 56o, gets 3bet by me, notices i've hardly played a hand in like 20 hands, and drops his crap.
Yeah this is what SHOULD have happened. If villain was to play correctly against you, and hence not make a mistake, which would lead to you not profiting in the long run, and leading to losses and further tilt on your end. Get over it. You lost this hand. And now you are cursing him for making a mistake against you preflop? Jeez, what do you want? Do you really want players to play correctly/perfectly against you? If so, I suggest you challenge durrrr/nutsinho/sauce/etc HU4ROLLZ. I'm sure you will have an edge, as they won't be making such terrible plays against you, and playing with ranges that are so unpredictable.