Help w/ range

Originally Posted by oskar

77, Axcc, QJcc, KT, KhAd, 8Jo.

I call turn because he might have somthing stupid, but I think it's weighted heavily towards strong flushes. The times he has a set you need to make at least $1.2-ish on the river, and I wouldn't bet much more. Maybe 1.8-2.6 depending how stationary you think he is.

I see no problem getting this type of villain to call 1/2 pot on the river with a set if it comes 4 to a flush. Could probably almost get full pot maybe, i'd still bet about $3.

You don't think he ever has KQ,KJ,K9,K8 etc ?

Originally Posted by tyrn

You don't think he ever has KQ,KJ,K9,K8 etc ?

of course he has something retarded some of the time K8 is equivalent to J8o here, that's why I added that. add more stupid hands the more retarded you think he is. But I kind of want to discount K9, etc... cuz that would be just *head esplode* - stupid. And he prolly folds that pre.
Some guys will play stuff like Kx with x of clubs that way, but you don't see that too often.

Turn bet is really standard, since he has lots of worse pairs, pair + club and random AcX hands. So yeah instead of breaking it down and thinking "bet bad if this, bet good if this." just give him a continuing range vs your turn bet and you'll see it's +EV vs his range as a whole.

I guess calling the turn raise can't be too horrible, but fml, I kinda want to fold here. I'd expect him to raise non nut flushes, or at least a lot of them really often on the flop here multiway so actually feel like his range contains a LOT of nut flushes when he flats flop multiway then does this. I guess he can have two pair and non nut flushes some of the time, but bleh I don't think folding turn can be too bad even getting this price given we're gonna be folding on all non club rivers and this is just never gonna be a bluff or a worse made hand. Also, a decent whack of the time we lose another big bet on the river when he has AcXc and the river clubs up. I expect him to play sets and low flushes very infrequently this way so yah don't think our implied odds are good at all.

Think it's close but I'd fold the turn lacking an indication he's really retarded and randomly spazzy and/or that he slowplays stuff like baby flushes and sets on these boards.

As played river is an easier fold than the first step in making a very basic paper aeroplane.