Help w/ range

villain is 31/28/6 over a sample of 110. We're both deep

bet turn for potential incoming monster. Did he pick up 2 pair on the turn? can he really check 2 streets with a made flush? what is his range to go agro mode on river, i'm having trouble w/ that. It's such a retarded bet with anything but AcXc

My turn bet is bad if he has a flush because he will raise for sure. Decent if he has 2 pair cuz he can't really raise and it builds pot if I make trips/bigger 2 pair or flush. Bet is good if he has 1 pair, small enough that he could call with a tens, JJ QQ. Since he checks 2x i think his range is weighted away from made flushes, so bet is good. Input?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($6.06)
SB ($4.28)
BB ($12.38)
Hero (UTG) ($9.04)
MP ($6.19)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, J
Hero bets $0.20, MP calls $0.20, 2 folds, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.62) 10, 2, 7 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.62) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.90, BB raises to $2.10, Hero calls $1.20

River: ($5.82) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $5.82, Hero folds

Total pot: $5.82 | Rake: $0.38

77, Axcc, QJcc, KT, KhAd, 8Jo.

I call turn because he might have somthing stupid, but I think it's weighted heavily towards strong flushes. The times he has a set or two pair you need to make at least $1.2-ish on the river, and I wouldn't bet much more. Maybe 1.8-2.6 depending how stationary you think he is.

Originally Posted by oskar

77, Axcc, QJcc, KT, KhAd, 8Jo.

I call turn because he might have somthing stupid, but I think it's weighted heavily towards strong flushes. The times he has a set you need to make at least $1.2-ish on the river, and I wouldn't bet much more. Maybe 1.8-2.6 depending how stationary you think he is.

I see no problem getting this type of villain to call 1/2 pot on the river with a set if it comes 4 to a flush. Could probably almost get full pot maybe, i'd still bet about $3.

You don't think he ever has KQ,KJ,K9,K8 etc ?

Originally Posted by tyrn

You don't think he ever has KQ,KJ,K9,K8 etc ?

of course he has something retarded some of the time K8 is equivalent to J8o here, that's why I added that. add more stupid hands the more retarded you think he is. But I kind of want to discount K9, etc... cuz that would be just *head esplode* - stupid. And he prolly folds that pre.
Some guys will play stuff like Kx with x of clubs that way, but you don't see that too often.

Turn bet is really standard, since he has lots of worse pairs, pair + club and random AcX hands. So yeah instead of breaking it down and thinking "bet bad if this, bet good if this." just give him a continuing range vs your turn bet and you'll see it's +EV vs his range as a whole.

I guess calling the turn raise can't be too horrible, but fml, I kinda want to fold here. I'd expect him to raise non nut flushes, or at least a lot of them really often on the flop here multiway so actually feel like his range contains a LOT of nut flushes when he flats flop multiway then does this. I guess he can have two pair and non nut flushes some of the time, but bleh I don't think folding turn can be too bad even getting this price given we're gonna be folding on all non club rivers and this is just never gonna be a bluff or a worse made hand. Also, a decent whack of the time we lose another big bet on the river when he has AcXc and the river clubs up. I expect him to play sets and low flushes very infrequently this way so yah don't think our implied odds are good at all.

Think it's close but I'd fold the turn lacking an indication he's really retarded and randomly spazzy and/or that he slowplays stuff like baby flushes and sets on these boards.

As played river is an easier fold than the first step in making a very basic paper aeroplane.

Originally Posted by oskar

77, Axcc, QJcc, KT, KhAd, 8Jo.

I call turn because he might have somthing stupid, but I think it's weighted heavily towards strong flushes. The times he has a set or two pair you need to make at least $1.2-ish on the river, and I wouldn't bet much more. Maybe 1.8-2.6 depending how stationary you think he is.

why J8o? im assuming not other flushes because hed raise on the flop or w/e but you would think if he has QJcc here then he def has 89cc and other flushes...

as for my personally i agree with carrots and fold that turn...i liek the turn bet its self but i think this is weighted towards Axcc given his flop flat after the other guy has folded.

ur faster than my edit button
If you think he can't fold a set, then just bomb it. if he calls a psb, he should call a shove too.

FWIW, bet is not good if he has 2 pair. You have like 32% equity against {KT, K7, T7}, and I don't see him folding any of it.

I wouldn't discount flopped flushes by his check/call, check/raise line at all. I'd be far more likely to discount two-pair hands and the like.

As played I guess I call turn, folding non-club rivers.

Let's see what everyone else says.

J8o is just a substitue for all the stupid hands he shows up with sometimes. You'll see 78, 66, etc. here. Not enough to put it in his range, but you can't ignore it either, so I just pick one and add that to the range.

I doubt he ever has a 2pair here given his stats. The only sensible 2pair he can have here is KT and even then I doubt he's calling with that.

Sets are possible although it can be argued that it should have raised OTF, so his range I think is weighted more towards made flushes. Given a range of sets, AcTc,Ac9c,QcJc,QcTc,Qc9c,JcTc,Jc9c,Tc9c (and I'm being tight with this range) and pending further reads I think it's a b/f turn, although in-game I probably call.