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 Originally Posted by dtamburin
I' m folding this on the flop. I agree the check-raise here is telling.
He is certainly saying he doesn't fear TPTK, I'd say he called PF with a pocket pair, looks like he tried to limp it in then decided to call when you bet it.
Only other thing I can see is some sort of crazy bluff, but I' m not risking my stack on that.
Looking at his stats, a check call pre here is almost always a speculative hand like small pairs or SC. Looks like he's hit a set on the flop, or a strong draw. If you run a stove calculation based on his likely range, you get:
Board: 8d 3d 4s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.667% 36.67% 00.00% 6171 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 63.333% 63.33% 00.00% 10659 0.00 { 88, 44-33, QdTd, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, 9d7d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d }
So you're not in great shape if you can put him on this range. However, you are almost getting 4.5-1 to call his raise... I would have called his raise and re-eval the turn, just as played. On the turn:
Board: 8d 3d 4s 3s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.636% 43.64% 00.00% 288 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 56.364% 56.36% 00.00% 372 0.00 { 88, 44-33, QdTd, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, 9d7d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d }
You actually improve against his range here, (mainly because all his draws lose equity) and again, you've got mental odds, so I would lean on calling. Though I would now be leaning towards the suspicion that he had hit a set on the flop - I've rarely seen draws being played this way on the turn.
On the river, I think I would have folded here. It's a pretty brave bluff if he has a busted draw.
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