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I'm skewed towards 5nl and lower too. Thing is, if he checks his AK, what does that tell you about his hand? That he has AK or AQ. He's not 3betting pre flop and then checking TT+ on this flop, so if he checks, we know we're good. If I 3bet AK and it's checked over to me, I'm always c-betting. Maybe not the turn, it becomes a lot more situational from here. I expect his entire 3betting range to bet the flop. By leading out, we're giving him the chance to fold AK and AQ instead of betting them. I'm never calling AK to a rags flop bet after 3betting, but I might raise it, because the bet looks like a vulnerable pair, and since I 3bet, I can easily rep the monster pair. You say you fold you JJ to a raise? Of course, that's probably why I don't bet it, because I would fold to raise too unless this guy was showing down idiotic moves. I don't want him to fold AK and AQ, I want him to bet them, because a lot of the time we're paying him off when he has QQ+ and we station off a % of our stack. Only by letting AK and AQ spew can I see that we're making money against his 3bet range.
Yeah for sure when we b/f to his QQ+, it saves more money than if we station, but we're not making money off his AK and AQ, which he's more likely to have. I can't see that we're expecting any return on the flop bet, if he calls we look like we're in trouble, if he raises we know we're in trouble, so we're betting to induce a fold. That's a bluff. Where's the value? What does he continue with that's worse? TT only. If we know he's fishy and can't fold AK, then yeah there's tons of value, but I'm assuming he either folds or raises AK, which makes a flop bet look really bad.
c/c to showdown is the only way I can see we're getting the required value off AQ and AK needed to show a profit against his 3bet range when we don't flop a set. Leading out the flop (or c/r) only serves to win us the dead money or spew off more chips apart from the rare occasion he has TT. That's my opinion anyway. Anyone else got thoughts on this?
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