hands from my first 6 Handed 2NL session

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

Your response to my #1: Him being IP i think his range has a few different hands than just an ace. Value bet against FD, SC 1 pair hands. Betting keeps him from bluffing you out of that flop with 9's.
Your response to my #4: I prefer calling and leading out over c/r IN GENERAL because they'll have worse odds to draw, you'll get another card that may help define where your at in the hand, and if it fails you only have one more street to get to SD.
Your response to my #5: Only hands that really make sense here are 43s,53s,54s,65s,75s, PP's from about 33 to 77 (usually not 55), and sometimes a random A10/AJ. If you notice his bet sizing makes it seem like he has a pair of 5's with a weak kicker, or an open ender. If he isn't a calling station (you tell me?); it should be really easy to take the pot away from him because pretty much any turn will look scary to him.

Okay, so I'm not as worried about 4 or 5 anymore, your input has definitely helped I'm not sure (given my opponent) how I play the flop on 4 exactly, but a c/c; c/f as played screams "I WANNA DRAW" at my opponent.. so my river is dead + they get to see my cards then. on 5, I think his range (48/24) is wider than just these hands that make sense, but again, I like the call on a flop, then bet in position better than my raise on the flop, but i think his flop action is really weak, especially since he's been betting low flops weak like this frequently. Back to 1!

#1) Is the prevention of being stolen against; ie. betting and he folds ( I don't think he's calling this if he doesn't have an ace, since my 3 bet range will seem really narrow too, many aces ) versus betting and him calling.. i guess if he calls or raises, I'm making no more action pretty much no matter what. If I do, I think it's a mistake on my part. Do you anticipate he folds this flop over x% needed to make a profitable semi-bluff into this hand, such that my EV is higher in the hand by betting early on this flop than check/folding it? if I'm c/f obviously he will bet most flops, so i'm probably 0EV for the flop if i c/f.

do you think I can get a better EV on the flop by betting into it? If so what would you say I should make the bet size on the flop? What kind of range are you thinking the villain is calling my 3-bet here; is it ever less than an ace? In which case does he fold to a certain bet size will make my EV best on the flop assuming I bet?

I'd like to run some odds to see where I stand against what you would think a 21/20 would call in preflop, assuming he's at least a mediocre player. so I can try to figure out the percent of hands he's likely folding to this flop!

Originally Posted by sven00100

Okay, so I'm not as worried about 4 or 5 anymore, your input has definitely helped I'm not sure (given my opponent) how I play the flop on 4 exactly, but a c/c; c/f as played screams "I WANNA DRAW" at my opponent.. so my river is dead + they get to see my cards then. on 5, I think his range (48/24) is wider than just these hands that make sense, but again, I like the call on a flop, then bet in position better than my raise on the flop, but i think his flop action is really weak, especially since he's been betting low flops weak like this frequently. Back to 1!

#1) Is the prevention of being stolen against; ie. betting and he folds ( I don't think he's calling this if he doesn't have an ace, since my 3 bet range will seem really narrow too, many aces ) versus betting and him calling.. i guess if he calls or raises, I'm making no more action pretty much no matter what. If I do, I think it's a mistake on my part. Do you anticipate he folds this flop over x% needed to make a profitable semi-bluff into this hand, such that my EV is higher in the hand by betting early on this flop than check/folding it? if I'm c/f obviously he will bet most flops, so i'm probably 0EV for the flop if i c/f.

do you think I can get a better EV on the flop by betting into it? If so what would you say I should make the bet size on the flop? What kind of range are you thinking the villain is calling my 3-bet here; is it ever less than an ace? In which case does he fold to a certain bet size will make my EV best on the flop assuming I bet?

I'd like to run some odds to see where I stand against what you would think a 21/20 would call in preflop, assuming he's at least a mediocre player. so I can try to figure out the percent of hands he's likely folding to this flop!

A mediocre player would usually fold ATLEAST A10- to a 3 bet
*edit* I think that he is more likely to call with a pocket pair than a weak ace

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

A mediocre player would usually fold ATLEAST A10- to a 3 bet
*edit* I think that he is more likely to call with a pocket pair than a weak ace

So would you say his range is probably AJs+, AQo+, 99+, KQs or something similar to this? I tried to be fairly loose in my approximation, hence the KQs being in there.

Originally Posted by sven00100

So would you say his range is probably AJs+, AQo+, 99+, KQs or something similar to this? I tried to be fairly loose in my approximation, hence the KQs being in there.

It's possible he has a bit larger range than this. Players at 2nl tend to overvalue broadway cards, and he may think he has proper odds to set mine so I wouldn't be surprised if he shows up with 22+

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

It's possible he has a bit larger range than this. Players at 2nl tend to overvalue broadway cards, and he may think he has proper odds to set mine so I wouldn't be surprised if he shows up with 22+

I was at the table with him for ~100 hands before this, hadn't seemed to be doing this, I could maybe be edged into thinking he would play 77+, but if he is playing weaker hands to my 3bet, my read on him is off to start with. I'll assume he's playing 77+ and look at the stats.

Possible combinations of hands given this range, we expect him to hold:
3*2/2 = 3 AA
2*1/2 = 1 KK
4*3/2*6 = 36 (QQ-77; 6 each)
3*2 = 6 AKs/o
3*4 = 12 AQs/o
3*1 = 3 AJs

His ace containing hands:: AA, AK, AQ, AJs = 24 hands
Non ace containing hands:: 77-KK = 37 hands

Assuming any non-ace folds to a pot sized bet here.. damn.. I have a huge leak here.

the threshold for my making a pot sized bet profitable assuming anything sub pair of aces folds is 99. If villain folds 99 here, my post flop bet would be bad, if he calls 99 and anything below, my bet becomes better and better... Wowza... x.x WP sir