Which hand statistically busts AA most often?

Came up at a live game on Sunday, some said 5/6s, some said J9s, I was undecided. Time to clear it up!

the calc I have says 56s 23.1%, J9s ~21% 67s 78s and 89s are all better than J9s this is assuming that neither A is the same suit as the suited cards.

The percentages for suited connectors (no gap) who do not share suits or cards used to make a straight with the Aces should be the same i think. 56s actually makes the higher straight (when the Aces make a straight) which I think makes it a (very) slight favourite (although then I suppose 67s should be even better).

I would have to say that 67s would be the best contender although poker stove ranks 56s slightly higher (23.056% vs 23.033%).

Well, 56s would obviously do better than J9s. J9 makes fewer straights.

Suited connecters 56-9T all crack aces the same. JT and 45 lose a few staights becuase 2 aces are gone.

-'rilla

{This post has been removed}

5,6 and and 6,7 suited (with the suit being different from that of either of the aces) tie for being the hand that crack A,A the most often when heads up. However, 5,6 is the better hand to have because it will tie with A,A, slightly more than 6, 7 will.

Daniel Negreanu's blog said somewhere that it was 67s i believe

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Suited connecters 56-9T all crack aces the same.

Originally posted by Cocco_Bill
a500lbgorilla wrote:

Suited connecters 56-9T all crack aces the same.

Not true.

Originally Posted by Martini

Originally posted by Cocco_Bill
a500lbgorilla wrote:

Suited connecters 56-9T all crack aces the same.

Not true.

You are correct, its just not immidiately obvious why. 76s and 56s cracjk aces the best and the same. Thats because both win with against pocket aces 2345x board .

This was a quiz on the WPT, they said 67s.

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

Originally Posted by Martini

Originally posted by Cocco_Bill
a500lbgorilla wrote:

Suited connecters 56-9T all crack aces the same.

Not true.

You are correct, its just not immidiately obvious why. 76s and 56s cracjk aces the best and the same. Thats because both win with against pocket aces 2345x board .

Maybe if you read my post it might have been obvious. Then again sometimes I get the feeling the AutoMuteEuropeanPosters option might be enabled.

{This post has been removed}

Originally posted by Ripptyde
just did the calculation on cardplayer and 6/7s is slightly higher than 8/9s

When trying to nitpick which hands have a slight edge over another, the calculator at cardplayer is not the place to go. It gives samplings from thousands of random hands dealt and gives different results when tried again. Worst of all, it doesn't account for ties. Try the hand simulator at PokerTips.org. It gives you the exact odds and accounts for ties. You will see that 5, 6 suited and 6, 7 suited (with the suit being different from that of either of the aces) crack A, A the same amount of times, but 5, 6 ties slightly more making it the best hand to go up against A, A with.

Originally Posted by arkana

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

Originally Posted by Martini

Originally posted by Cocco_Bill
a500lbgorilla wrote:

Suited connecters 56-9T all crack aces the same.

Not true.

You are correct, its just not immidiately obvious why. 76s and 56s cracjk aces the best and the same. Thats because both win with against pocket aces 2345x board .

Maybe if you read my post it might have been obvious. Then again sometimes I get the feeling the AutoMuteEuropeanPosters option might be enabled.

I am European and I was/am playing 4 tables of poker while reading this. Sorry i missed your post...

I've always heard 56s faired best against aces.

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

I am European and I was/am playing 4 tables of poker while reading this. Sorry i missed your post...

No worries, I just think most threads would shrink at least 30% if people bothered reading through all the posts before posting.

If 56s ties more often than 67s against AA then can someone tell me what the board is where 56s ties AA and 67s loses.

I always thought that 67s was the best hand.

Thanks.

mj

Originally posted by rdglus
If 56s ties more often than 67s against AA then can someone tell me what the board is where 56s ties AA and 67s loses.

A, 2, 3, 4 and anything but an A or a 5.

Originally Posted by Martini

Originally posted by rdglus
If 56s ties more often than 67s against AA then can someone tell me what the board is where 56s ties AA and 67s loses.

A, 2, 3, 4 and anything but an A or a 5.

Sorry I dont understand what kind of boards you are trying to describe here.

I guess I need pictures and sing-along songs to understand anything these days...

Disregard my last post, I misunderstood the question.

Originally posted by rdqlus
If 56s ties more often than 67s against AA then can someone tell me what the board is where 56s ties AA and 67s loses.

Its not a tie that 67s will lose with.

5,6 and 6,7 both have the same number of straight possibilities, however, with 5, 6 there are three straights on the board that will tie (8,9,10,J,Q,- 9,10,J,Q,K,- 10,J,Q,K,A) and with 6,7 there are only two straights on the board that will tie (9,10,J,Q,K - 10,J,Q,K,A)

aren't you forgetting the boards where both a 5,6 or 6,7 come up?

ex:

5,6,7,8,9

What have you been smoking Martini?

We are talking about 56 vs AA in comparison to 67 vs AA, not 56 vs 67.

This is actually surprising difficult...

I don't think there are any boards that 56s ties AA that 67s doesn't tie...

So, it must be that 56s and 67s BOTH tie, but with 56 it occurs more often.

Since the both have a 6, it must be boards with a 7 in them that tie (not 5)

6789T/789TJ/89TJQ

No, this should be compensated by boards that use the 5...
23456/34567/45678/56789 - but three of those also use a 7, so they don't count.

23456 doesn't count either, since the 7 gives the sucker outer a win, not a tie. I

Note that the 56 edge is only 1 in 2,000.

Originally posted by arkana
What have you been smoking Martini?

We are talking about 56 vs AA in comparison to 67 vs AA, not 56 vs 67.

Right. There is one more straight possibility (actually more than one, because I'm not accounting for different suits) with 56 vs AA that will tie, than there is with 6,7 vs AA.

Originally Posted by Martini

Originally posted by arkana
What have you been smoking Martini?

We are talking about 56 vs AA in comparison to 67 vs AA, not 56 vs 67.

Right. There is one more straight possibility (actually more than one, because I'm not accounting for different suits) with 56 vs AA that will tie, than there is with 6,7 vs AA.

Maybe I have been smoking something because I still don't get it, what is that possibility? Give me an example please.

ok, i wrote this post before i saw martini's below and, in short, he put exactly what i had. The only mistake you made, is each one has one less tying hand, because 910JQK is not a tying hand, it loses.

Originally posted by jobupoker
aren't you forgetting the boards where both a 5,6 or 6,7 come up?

ex:

5,6,7,8,9

Yeah, I am.

With 5,6 there are 7 straights on the board that wil tie A,A:

2,3,4,5,6
3,4,5,6,7
4,5,6,7,8
5,6,7,8,9
6,7,8,9,10
7,8,9,10,J
8,9,10,J,Q


and with 6,7, there are only 6:

3,4,5,6,7
4,5,6,7,8
5,6,7,8,9
6,7,8,9,10
7,8,9,10,J
8,9,10,J,Q

Does the above post explain it arkana?

Erm, the original question was:

If 56s ties more often than 67s against AA then can someone tell me what the board is where 56s ties AA and 67s loses.

So yes I understand 56 ties more often but when it does 67 does not lose.

That was not the original question arkana.

Ok you got me on a technicality Martini...

Originally posted by Greedo017
here's a twist on it, anyone know what hand loses the most to aces? give you a hint, it wins less than 10% of the time.

A,6 and A,9 (where the 6 or 9 are one of the same suits as one of the Aces) both lose to Aces an equal amount of the time but A,6 is a worse hand because it ties less.

I don't know what you're getting at arkana. I never said anything about 6,7, not losing.

Here's one for ya Greedo

What's the most lopsided hole cards two players can go heads-up against each other with? Player A has what cards and Player B has what cards?

Originally posted by rdqlus
If 56s ties more often than 67s against AA then can someone tell me what the board is where 56s ties AA and 67s loses.

rdqlus asked for an example where 56s would tie with AA but 67s would lose, which would explain why 56s has a higher win % than 67s against AA.

So you have shown that 56 ties more often, but have you shown why 56 would have a higher win % against AA than 67?

If the board is 2,3,4,5,6 then 56 ties but 67 wins so that only confirms to me that 67 is the favourite.

5,6 wins exactly as much as 6,7 does, but since it ties more often, it is the better hand to have.

originally posted by arkana
If the board is 2,3,4,5,6 then 56 ties but 67 wins so that only confirms to me that 67 is the favourite.

What about when the board is x, x, 2, 3, 4, where either x is not a 6? Do you see how 5,6 hits as many straights as 6,7 does?

Yes I see how 56 hits as many straights as 76 does but the one extra tie you are talking about is a board where 76 would win not tie so how does that improve 56's win percentage?

Which extra tie?

2,3,4,5,6

The 7 would give 67 a higher straight.

i cracked AA with T9s last week playing $3/$6 at ft. mcdowell... it was f'ing beautiful.

Originally posted by arkana
2,3,4,5,6

The 7 would give 67 a higher straight.

I didn't put 2,3,4,5,6 on the list that 6,7 would tie with.

I think we are misunderstanding each other...

Do you agree with me that 67s would have a higher win % (or at least equal) than 56s?

Read my first post in this thread again.

5,6 and and 6,7 suited (with the suit being different from that of either of the aces) tie for being the hand that crack A,A the most often when heads up. However, 5,6 is the better hand to have because it will tie with A,A, slightly more than 6, 7 will.

Explain the last sentence. Your post where you give the boards that 56 ties with AA has one more tie namely 23456 than listed for 67s' ties with AA. But with that board 76 doesnt tie it wins.

I see what you're saying. Let me edit that list and then look at it again.

Okay.

With 5,6 there are 3 boards that wil tie A,A:
6,7,8,9,10

67 will tie here as well.

Huh?

Think he means that 6/7 vs AA will tie on a board 6/7/8/9/10, as both have a straight. As would any hand not involving a J.

I still don't know what he's saying.

Lets make this really fun...

How about..how many more times will Ace-Wildcard win than AA? If Ace-Joker makes 2 pairs then AA has just hit a set!


How about flushes and straights?

OR TRIPS???


How many times EXACTLY? Every time?

What boards will AA win that A-wild cant?

What are the win %'s when one player holds Ace-Joker and another holds AA?

I still want to see if anyone can tell me what the most lopsided heads-up hands are.

How about the most even heads-up match (where both sets of cards aren't of the same ranks of course)?

wouldn't the most lopsided heads up hand be AA vs the hand that AA is the most heavily favored against? i don't want to give that one away if it is.

And, to the person asking about 67 winning more.

67 wins when the board has 345, 458, 589, 8910
56 wins when the board has 234, 347, 478, 789

The other cards in the straight don't matter, so long as they don't provide for a tie. So, counting wins doesn't matter, they will be equal. However, counting ties does, for which 56 has one more.

Make sense?

Let me try to explain this again. I will be happy to admit Im wrong if that is the case.

(Im only talking about straights here)

For 56 to tie with AA the board needs to have a straight.
23456, 34567, 45678, 56789, 6789T, 789TJ, 89TJQ

(If the board doesnt have a straight the AA doesnt have a straight, except if the board is 2345 in which case 56s makes the higher straight, 67 will also make the higher straight)

If the board is 23456, 67 makes the higher straight.
All the others it ties as well.

56 suited and 76 suited will make the same number of straights using one or two of the cards to complete the straight.

The reason why these two combinations fair the best against AA is because they include the 6 which does not allow the AA to win with a straight.

That and SmackingYouUp said:

Daniel Negreanu's blog said somewhere that it was 67s i believe

I believe he would know (Daniel).

ok, someone earlier, I don't think A9 or A6 is the worst hand vs. AA, sorry. I am only 90% sure on what it is, i've never proven it to myself, so if someone proves to me otherwise I will listen.


And, i am a little confused by what you're saying, but I think you're getting hung up on 23456 being a tie for 56 and a win for 67. Yes, this is true, but this is balanced by A2345 being a win for 56 and a loss for 67. You've just gotta convince yourself, 56 and 67 will win the exact same amount of times, in our arguments we are ignoring proving that they win the same number of times, and instead focusing on ties. As has been listed before, each one has 4 ways to make a straight, each one involves three cards, with the other two being irrelevant. 23456 being a winner for 67 doesn't matter, all that matters in that string is the 345, the 2 and the 6 could be any card in the deck. And, given 23456 = 345 for 67, this is the equivalent of a 234 flop for 56, and the odds of the flop being 234 or 345 are equal. Is this getting more at what you're asking?

and, looks like i was wrong. Somewhere, i heard K2 same suits same as aces was worst, but its not. K2 wins 9ish% of the time, A6 or A9 os with the kick the same suit as an ace wins 5ish%. I didn't even know preflop odds could get that bad, that's just pathetic.

Originally Posted by Greedo017

And, i am a little confused by what you're saying, but I think you're getting hung up on 23456 being a tie for 56 and a win for 67. Yes, this is true, but this is balanced by A2345 being a win for 56 and a loss for 67.

Explain to me why A2345 would be a loss if you have 67? You would have a straight of 34567.

woops

sorry. what its coming down to, is that 234 is a winner for 56, and not 67. the other cards don't matter. Its impossible to list every single hand that makes a straight for both hands including the x x cards. in A2345, if you have 56 the only cards that "count" are 234, if you have 67, the only ones that "count" are 345. The others could be any two in xx as they are not participating in the straight.

When you think about it logically, don't you think 56 would make the same number of straights as 67? So would 78? If not, why not?

go back to this list

with 56, 234, 347, 478, 789 make winning straights.

with 67, 345, 458, 589, 8910 make winning straights.

with 78, 456, 569, 6910, 10JQ make winning straights.

The other two cards are 100% irrelevant. It doesn't matter if the board is 234AK or 234 KK or A2345, so long as the board does not create a tie, the only cards that matter are the cards that make the winning straight. What matters is that the odds of 234, 345, or any of these straight forming cards showing up on the board are exactly the same. Once you can establish the idea that there are the same number of winning straights for each of these three hands, then you can look at the number of ties exclusively and i think you'll understand.

I agree with everything you said, except Im still not convinced about the extra number of ties favouring 56s.

The extra tie 56s has is where the board is 23456.

This includes a winning combination from 56 and 76

with 56, 234, 347, 478, 789 make winning straights.

with 67, 345, 458, 589, 8910 make winning straights.

Yet with the 67s its still a win and not a tie.

So I guess what Im saying is the extra tie for 56 is one of its winning straights that becomes a tie.

"So I guess what Im saying is the extra tie for 56 is one of its winning straights that becomes a tie."

i don't understand this sentence.

I'm getting hung up on this, if you agree that there are the same number of winning straights for each hand, why does 23456 making a winning straight for 67 even enter the picture when we're looking at ties?


Oh, and the most even heads up matchup has gotta be AKs vs 22, non ak suit.

Think of it this way:

They make the same number of straights where at least one of the hole cards are used.

All of these straights are winners for 56 and 76. So 56 and 76 are still equal at that this point.

The Aces cant make a straight because both 56 and 76 would automatically make a higher straight.

Still equal.

A tie can occurr if there is a straight on the board (this will happen an equal amount for 56 and 76). This is mutually exclusive from the scenario where one of the hole cards are used.

Straights on the board are
A2345 (both 56 and 76 win)
23456 (56 ties, 76 wins)
34567 (both tie)
45678 (both tie)
56789 (both tie)
6789T (both tie)
789TJ (both tie)
89TJQ (both tie)
9TJQK (both lose to Aces)
TJQKA (both tie)

So they both make the same amount of straights using at least one of the hole cards but 76 wins when the 23456 straight is on the board while 56 just ties.

I had the list correct the first time. I changed it back. Look at it now and tell me if it makes sense.

Ok, i reread your post and I am pretty sure I understand you, I'll start my rebuttal now

Originally posted by Greedo017
Oh, and the most even heads up matchup has gotta be AKs vs 22, non ak suit.

Nope.

hmm, that's tough. You've gotta be wrong. Unless you're looking for the two hands, that aren't like AA v AA, that have the highest tie %, I think AKs vs. 22 are both the closest in % to win.

alright.

So, you are saying, that because 23456 forms a winning straight for 67, and a tie for 56, that 67 forms one more win, that 56 does not form?

So, let us look at 78. The board 34567 forms a win for 78, but a tie for 67. So, does 78 form one more winning straight than 67? Which forms one more winning straight than 56? So, 78 forms two more winning straights than 56?

Let's say this was carried on higher than just to a king. Let's say the deck went from 1 to 50. If your cards were 30, 31, would you be forming one more straight than 29, 30, which forms one more straight than 28, 29, etc? Would that 30, 31 really have 25 more straight possibilities than 56?

How about AQs against 22 with one of the deuces of the same suit?´

Pokerstove puts it at 50.027%.

I'm just guessing though.

you're right, its closer by a whopping .011 %

As Qs vs. 2s 2d
AQ wins 49.70
22 wins 49.64
ties .66

As Ks vs 2d 2h
AK wins 49.77
22 wins 49.60
ties .63

That would be the winning tie Cocco_Bill, but pokerstove is way off. Use the simulator at pokertips.org.

Originally Posted by Martini

That would be the winning tie Cocco_Bill, but pokerstove is way off. Use the simulator at pokertips.org.

Pokerstove is good enough for my needs.

Funny thing is that my first guess was the correct one. That was the first hand I tried feeding into pokerstove after reading Greedos post

What I meant was that it would be correct if the odds were 50.027% but they're not. Pokerstove is wrong and there is a better answer.